Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs PHI
Score 79.4 | Lineup K 6.82
|
6.54 | 6.79 | +0.25 | 86.3% | 75.7% | 63.0% | 49.8% | 37.4% |
Carlos Rodón
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs NYM
Score 49.4 | Lineup K 5.72
|
5.92 | 5.85 | -0.07 | 79.1% | 65.5% | 50.8% | 37.2% | 25.7% |
Framber Valdez
Probable | projected
|
DET vs COL
Score 69.7 | Lineup K 6.88
|
4.98 | 5.67 | +0.69 | 77.3% | 63.1% | 48.3% | 34.7% | 23.5% |
George Kirby
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs ATH
Score 68.2 | Lineup K 6.03
|
5.28 | 5.62 | +0.34 | 76.8% | 62.5% | 47.6% | 34.0% | 22.9% |
Shota Imanaga
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs PIT
Score 55.1 | Lineup K 5.31
|
5.35 | 5.36 | +0.01 | 74.0% | 58.9% | 43.8% | 30.4% | 19.9% |
Robbie Ray
Probable | projected
|
SD vs SF
Score 52.7 | Lineup K 5.51
|
5.21 | 5.33 | +0.12 | 73.7% | 58.5% | 43.3% | 30.0% | 19.6% |
Taj Bradley
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs CLE
Score 59.0 | Lineup K 5.06
|
5.40 | 5.27 | -0.13 | 73.0% | 57.6% | 42.4% | 29.2% | 18.9% |
Sonny Gray
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs KC
Score 62.4 | Lineup K 5.72
|
4.93 | 5.26 | +0.33 | 72.9% | 57.5% | 42.2% | 29.0% | 18.8% |
Aaron Nola
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs ATL
Score 48.2 | Lineup K 5.64
|
4.94 | 5.18 | +0.24 | 71.9% | 56.3% | 41.0% | 28.0% | 17.9% |
Yusei Kikuchi
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs WSH
Score 53.7 | Lineup K 5.20
|
4.77 | 4.94 | +0.17 | 68.9% | 52.7% | 37.4% | 24.7% | 15.4% |
Seth Lugo
Probable | projected
|
KC vs BOS
Score 41.5 | Lineup K 5.09
|
4.76 | 4.84 | +0.08 | 67.6% | 51.1% | 35.8% | 23.4% | 14.3% |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs SEA
Score 32.7 | Lineup K 4.73
|
4.70 | 4.65 | -0.05 | 64.9% | 48.1% | 32.9% | 21.0% | 12.5% |
Dustin May
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs CIN
Score 42.8 | Lineup K 5.46
|
4.22 | 4.63 | +0.41 | 64.6% | 47.8% | 32.6% | 20.7% | 12.3% |
Ryan Gusto
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs LAD
Score 32.4 | Lineup K 4.77
|
4.62 | 4.61 | -0.01 | 64.3% | 47.4% | 32.3% | 20.4% | 12.1% |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable | projected
|
TB vs HOU
Score 48.8 | Lineup K 4.11
|
4.29 | 4.22 | -0.07 | 58.2% | 40.8% | 26.3% | 15.7% | 8.8% |
Max Scherzer
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs BAL
Score 49.0 | Lineup K 5.47
|
3.68 | 4.12 | +0.44 | 56.6% | 39.1% | 24.8% | 14.6% | 8.0% |
Andrew Abbott
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs MIL
Score 41.6 | Lineup K 4.72
|
3.65 | 4.00 | +0.35 | 54.5% | 37.0% | 23.1% | 13.3% | 7.1% |
Cade Cavalli
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs LAA
Score 43.7 | Lineup K 5.41
|
3.44 | 3.83 | +0.39 | 51.5% | 34.1% | 20.6% | 11.5% | 6.0% |
Chris Bassitt
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs TOR
Score 49.7 | Lineup K 5.23
|
3.41 | 3.82 | +0.41 | 51.3% | 33.9% | 20.5% | 11.4% | 5.9% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | projected
|
STL vs CWS
Score 35.9 | Lineup K 3.83
|
3.85 | 3.80 | -0.05 | 50.9% | 33.5% | 20.2% | 11.2% | 5.8% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.