Mithrandir Metrics
AZ National League West Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Club dossier / National League / National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks

82.3-79.7 with P10-P90 wins 73-92. 81.1 avg opponent projected wins.

Projected W
82.3-79.7
Live pace
85.7
Delta
+3.4
Record 73-65 Run diff 5 Generated 2026-08-31T11:46:09.602503+00:00
Rolling projection

Preseason / pace / Bayesian update

Preseason82.0
Current pace85.7
Rolling p5084.6
Observed weight70%
Rolling wins
75.2 79.6 84.6 89.5 94.0
MOVE +2.6 wins PACE ahead BULLPEN FIP 4.36
October path

Projection odds

Division13.1%
Playoffs40.8%
Pennant4.8%
World Series2.1%
Run environment

Team talent

wOBA0.262
Rotation FIP4.28
Bullpen FIP4.36
Run diff12.5
Current roster

Lineup projection

Active-roster status 2026-08-31; positions prioritize the latest confirmed lineup from 2026-08-31.

SlotPlayerPAValue
CMoreno, Gabriel4002.39
1BTawa, Tim3130.10
2BVargas, Ildemaro302-0.59
SSPerdomo, Geraldo6113.96
3BArenado, Nolan492-0.71
LFNootbaar, Lars5431.97
CFWaldschmidt, Ryan205-0.35
RFCarroll, Corbin6058.32
DHMarte, Ketel--7.71
Roster context

Not on the active roster

These players remain connected to the club but are excluded from the lineup and pitching staff.

PlayerGroupStatusLatest detail
Gurriel Jr., LourdesHitterIL-10Injured 10-Day
Gallen, ZacPitcherIL-60Injured 60-Day
Burnes, CorbinPitcherIL-60Injured 60-Day
Soroka, MichaelPitcherIL-15Injured 15-Day
Thompson, RyanPitcherIL-15Injured 15-Day
Puk, A.j.PitcherIL-60Injured 60-Day
Locklear, TylerHitterOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Del Castillo, AdrianHitterOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Fernandez, JoseHitterOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors