Mithrandir Metrics
TOR American League East Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Club dossier / American League / American League East

Toronto Blue Jays

83.2-78.8 with P10-P90 wins 74-93. 81.4 avg opponent projected wins.

Projected W
83.2-78.8
Live pace
79.8
Delta
-3.4
Record 68-70 Run diff -50 Generated 2026-08-31T11:46:09.602503+00:00
Rolling projection

Preseason / pace / Bayesian update

Preseason83.0
Current pace79.8
Rolling p5080.8
Observed weight70%
Rolling wins
71.7 76.0 80.8 85.6 89.9
MOVE -2.2 wins PACE behind BULLPEN FIP 4.37
October path

Projection odds

Division9.2%
Playoffs46.1%
Pennant5.7%
World Series2.6%
Run environment

Team talent

wOBA0.271
Rotation FIP4.33
Bullpen FIP4.37
Run diff27.6
Current roster

Lineup projection

Active-roster status 2026-08-31; positions prioritize the latest confirmed lineup from 2026-08-30.

SlotPlayerPAValue
CKirk, Alejandro--4.18
1BGuerrero Jr., Vladimir--14.72
2BMcAdoo, Charles----
SSGiménez, Andrés---0.17
3BOkamoto, Kazuma----
LFStraw, Myles----
CFBateman, Brett----
RFLukes, Nathan--0.32
DHSpringer, George--4.37
Pitching staff

Rotation

Pitching staff

Bullpen

Roster context

Not on the active roster

These players remain connected to the club but are excluded from the lineup and pitching staff.

PlayerGroupStatusLatest detail
Smith, JoshHitterIL-10Injured 10-Day
Barger, AddisonHitterIL-60Injured 60-Day
Santander, AnthonyHitterIL-60Injured 60-Day
Yesavage, TreyPitcherIL-15Injured 15-Day
Bieber, ShanePitcherIL-15Injured 15-Day
García, YimiPitcherIL-60Injured 60-Day
Mantiply, JoePitcherIL-60Injured 60-Day
Schneider, DavisHitterOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Lee, ChasePitcherOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors