Mithrandir Metrics
TEX at SEA 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · 2026-09-08

TEX at SEA

Quantrill, Cal vs Miller, Bryce · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read
The question

Does Mithrandir lean TEX or SEA?

Mithrandir leans TEX over SEA.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

50.5% Mirror Monte Carlo
Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.
Game market read
Projected runs TEX 4.5 · SEA 4.5 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed
Total Model 9.0 · Market 9.0 priced gap unavailable
Run line TEX 1.5 · SEA -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability
First inning NRFI 49.3% · YRFI 50.7% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation
Palantir 17 Available in 17 player rows
Fangorn 1 Available in 1 player rows
Valinor 1 Available in 1 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

17 matched rows
Total bases · TEX vs SEA Corey Seager Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P34.6% F-- V--
Model 34.6% Market 17.2% Model-market gap +17.4 pts
Open board
Total bases · SEA vs TEX Julio Rodríguez Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P34.8% F-- V--
Model 34.8% Market 17.7% Model-market gap +17.1 pts
Open board
Total bases · SEA vs TEX Josh Naylor Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P35.2% F-- V--
Model 35.2% Market 18.2% Model-market gap +17.0 pts
Open board
Total bases · TEX vs SEA Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P37.2% F-- V--
Model 37.2% Market 21.5% Model-market gap +15.7 pts
Open board
Total bases · TEX vs SEA Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P38.9% F-- V--
Model 38.9% Market 24.4% Model-market gap +14.5 pts
Open board
Total bases · TEX vs SEA Jake Burger Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P39.8% F-- V--
Model 39.8% Market 25.6% Model-market gap +14.1 pts
Open board
Total bases · SEA vs TEX Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P39.7% F-- V--
Model 39.7% Market 25.6% Model-market gap +14.0 pts
Open board
Total bases · SEA vs TEX Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P41.4% F-- V--
Model 41.4% Market 28.2% Model-market gap +13.2 pts
Open board
Total bases · SEA vs TEX Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P41.8% F-- V--
Model 41.8% Market 29.0% Model-market gap +12.8 pts
Open board
Total bases · TEX vs SEA Evan Carter Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P43.9% F-- V--
Model 43.9% Market 31.7% Model-market gap +12.1 pts
Open board
Total bases · TEX vs SEA Joc Pederson Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P44.2% F-- V--
Model 44.2% Market 32.3% Model-market gap +12.0 pts
Open board
Total bases · TEX vs SEA Josh Smith Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P44.9% F-- V--
Model 44.9% Market 33.3% Model-market gap +11.6 pts
Open board
Total bases · SEA vs TEX Victor Robles Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P46.5% F-- V--
Model 46.5% Market 35.7% Model-market gap +10.8 pts
Open board
Total bases · TEX vs SEA Danny Jansen Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P53.2% F-- V--
Model 53.2% Market 44.4% Model-market gap +8.8 pts
Open board
Home runs · SEA vs TEX Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P87.5% F89.2% V85.4%
Model 82.3% Market -- Model-market gap No priced gap
Open board
Strikeouts · TEX vs SEA Cal Quantrill Under 3.5 · Healthy / active roster
P62.6% F-- V57.2%
Model 62.6% Market -- Provisional model gap No priced gap
Open board
Kalshi exchange context
No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.