Section III · Betting · 2026-09-08

CHC at MIL

Peterson, David vs Misiorowski, Jacob · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read

The question

Does Mithrandir lean CHC or MIL?

Mithrandir leans MIL over CHC.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

71.3% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs CHC 4.2 · MIL 4.7 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.9 · Market 9.0 priced gap unavailable

Run line CHC 1.5 · MIL -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 47.7% · YRFI 52.3% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 31 Available in 31 player rows

Fangorn 3 Available in 3 player rows

Valinor 3 Available in 3 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

31 matched rows

Total bases · MIL vs CHC William Contreras Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P35.1% F-- V--

Model 35.1% Market 18.2% Model-market gap +16.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · CHC vs MIL Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P36.2% F-- V--

Model 36.2% Market 19.8% Model-market gap +16.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIL vs CHC Christian Yelich Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P36.2% F-- V--

Model 36.2% Market 19.8% Model-market gap +16.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · CHC vs MIL Alex Bregman Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P37.1% F-- V--

Model 37.1% Market 21.5% Model-market gap +15.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · CHC vs MIL Ian Happ Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P38.4% F-- V--

Model 38.4% Market 23.5% Model-market gap +14.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · CHC vs MIL Michael Busch Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P38.4% F-- V--

Model 38.4% Market 23.5% Model-market gap +14.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIL vs CHC Brice Turang Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P39.5% F-- V--

Model 39.5% Market 25.3% Model-market gap +14.2 pts

Open board

Total bases · CHC vs MIL Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P43.0% F-- V--

Model 43.0% Market 30.8% Model-market gap +12.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · CHC vs MIL Carson Kelly Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P46.4% F-- V--

Model 46.4% Market 35.7% Model-market gap +10.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIL vs CHC Sal Frelick Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P46.8% F-- V--

Model 46.8% Market 36.4% Model-market gap +10.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · CHC vs MIL Matt Shaw Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P49.4% F-- V--

Model 49.4% Market 40.0% Model-market gap +9.4 pts

Open board

Pitcher outs · MIL vs CHC Jacob Misiorowski Under 17.5 · Healthy / active roster

P52.4% F-- V--

Model 52.4% Market 43.7% Model-market gap +8.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIL vs CHC Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P61.4% F-- V--

Model 61.4% Market 54.5% Model-market gap +6.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · CHC vs MIL Seiya Suzuki Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P74.4% F-- V--

Model 74.4% Market 67.7% Model-market gap +6.7 pts

Open board

Home runs · MIL vs CHC William Contreras Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P12.8% F13.2% V12.0%

Model 18.8% Market 12.9% Model-market gap +5.9 pts

Open board

Home runs · CHC vs MIL Ian Happ Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P13.9% F13.2% V9.7%

Model 20.1% Market 14.8% Model-market gap +5.3 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.