Section III · Betting · 2026-09-08

NYM at MIA

Manaea, Sean vs Alcantara, Sandy · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read

The question

Does Mithrandir lean NYM or MIA?

Mithrandir leans MIA over NYM.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

56.5% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs NYM 4.6 · MIA 4.3 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.9 · Market 9.0 priced gap unavailable

Run line NYM -1.5 · MIA 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 49.0% · YRFI 51.0% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 31 Available in 31 player rows

Fangorn 4 Available in 4 player rows

Valinor 4 Available in 4 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

31 matched rows

Total bases · NYM vs MIA Bo Bichette Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P34.8% F-- V--

Model 34.8% Market 17.5% Model-market gap +17.2 pts

Open board

Total bases · NYM vs MIA Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P35.2% F-- V--

Model 35.2% Market 18.3% Model-market gap +16.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · NYM vs MIA Juan Soto Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P36.0% F-- V--

Model 36.0% Market 19.6% Model-market gap +16.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · NYM vs MIA Marcus Semien Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P39.5% F-- V--

Model 39.5% Market 25.3% Model-market gap +14.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIA vs NYM Agustín Ramírez Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P41.9% F-- V--

Model 41.9% Market 29.0% Model-market gap +12.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · NYM vs MIA Mark Vientos Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P42.2% F-- V--

Model 42.2% Market 29.4% Model-market gap +12.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIA vs NYM Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P42.8% F-- V--

Model 42.8% Market 30.3% Model-market gap +12.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · NYM vs MIA Brett Baty Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P43.9% F-- V--

Model 43.9% Market 31.7% Model-market gap +12.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIA vs NYM Heriberto Hernández Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P44.4% F-- V--

Model 44.4% Market 32.8% Model-market gap +11.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIA vs NYM Otto Lopez Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P44.7% F-- V--

Model 44.7% Market 33.3% Model-market gap +11.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIA vs NYM Connor Norby Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P46.2% F-- V--

Model 46.2% Market 35.1% Model-market gap +11.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · NYM vs MIA Francisco Alvarez Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P46.6% F-- V--

Model 46.6% Market 35.7% Model-market gap +10.9 pts

Open board

Home runs · NYM vs MIA Marcus Semien Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P10.1% F10.7% V11.5%

Model 17.0% Market 13.2% Model-market gap +3.9 pts

Open board

Home runs · NYM vs MIA Bo Bichette Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P11.9% F12.6% V9.1%

Model 15.3% Market 11.7% Model-market gap +3.6 pts

Open board

Home runs · MIA vs NYM Agustín Ramírez Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P12.6% F12.5% V15.5%

Model 18.0% Market 14.6% Model-market gap +3.5 pts

Open board

Home runs · MIA vs NYM Heriberto Hernández Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P9.9% F10.7% V12.7%

Model 14.9% Market 12.0% Model-market gap +2.9 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.