Mithrandir Metrics
MIN at DET 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · 2026-09-08

MIN at DET

Kremer, Dean vs Anderson, Drew · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read
The question

Does Mithrandir lean MIN or DET?

Mithrandir leans DET over MIN.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

59.2% Mirror Monte Carlo
Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.
Game market read
Projected runs MIN 4.4 · DET 4.8 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed
Total Model 9.2 · Market 9.0 priced gap unavailable
Run line MIN 1.5 · DET -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability
First inning NRFI 47.5% · YRFI 52.5% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation
Palantir 16 Available in 16 player rows
Fangorn 2 Available in 2 player rows
Valinor 2 Available in 2 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

16 matched rows
Total bases · DET vs MIN Riley Greene Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P37.2% F-- V--
Model 37.2% Market 21.5% Model-market gap +15.7 pts
Open board
Total bases · DET vs MIN Colt Keith Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P40.6% F-- V--
Model 40.6% Market 27.0% Model-market gap +13.5 pts
Open board
Total bases · DET vs MIN Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P42.5% F-- V--
Model 42.5% Market 29.9% Model-market gap +12.7 pts
Open board
Total bases · DET vs MIN Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P42.8% F-- V--
Model 42.8% Market 30.3% Model-market gap +12.5 pts
Open board
Total bases · DET vs MIN Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P43.9% F-- V--
Model 43.9% Market 31.7% Model-market gap +12.1 pts
Open board
Total bases · DET vs MIN Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P44.5% F-- V--
Model 44.5% Market 32.8% Model-market gap +11.7 pts
Open board
Home runs · DET vs MIN Colt Keith Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P10.4% F11.7% V7.5%
Model 16.2% Market 10.5% Model-market gap +5.7 pts
Open board
Home runs · DET vs MIN Zach McKinstry Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P9.4% F11.7% V9.5%
Model 12.9% Market 8.7% Model-market gap +4.1 pts
Open board
Hits · DET vs MIN Jahmai Jones Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P98.0% F-- V--
Model 81.6% Market 41.7% Provisional model gap +39.9 pts
Open board
Hits · DET vs MIN Colt Keith Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster
P80.8% F-- V--
Model 80.8% Market 65.5% Provisional model gap +15.2 pts
Open board
Hits · DET vs MIN Dillon Dingler Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster
P85.8% F-- V--
Model 85.8% Market 72.2% Provisional model gap +13.6 pts
Open board
Hits · DET vs MIN Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P81.9% F-- V--
Model 41.0% Market 33.3% Provisional model gap +7.6 pts
Open board
Hits · DET vs MIN Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P83.8% F-- V--
Model 43.6% Market 40.8% Provisional model gap +2.8 pts
Open board
Hits · DET vs MIN Riley Greene Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P24.8% F-- V--
Model 67.0% Market 64.9% Provisional model gap +2.1 pts
Open board
Pitcher outs · MIN vs DET Dean Kremer Under 15.5 · Healthy / active roster
P52.0% F-- V--
Model 52.0% Market 51.6% Provisional model gap +0.4 pts
Open board
Strikeouts · MIN vs DET Dean Kremer Under 4.5 · Healthy / active roster
P51.9% F-- V52.4%
Model 51.9% Market 51.9% Provisional model gap +0.1 pts
Open board
Kalshi exchange context
No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.