Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-07-23 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
23
Matched
87
Lineups
90
HR BOARD 2026-07-23 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs TORShane Bieber · slot 3
 22.3%Fangorn 12.7%market +9.5pp
P 16.3
F 22.3
V 12.6
9.7pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
02
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs TORShane Bieber · slot 2
 22.3%Fangorn 14.2%market +8.0pp
P 16.5
F 22.3
V 14.3
7.9pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
03
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 3
 13.6%Fangorn 9.3%market +4.3pp
P 13.8
F 13.6
V 10.4
3.4pp 0.959xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
04
Iván Herrera STL
Lineup pending
STL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 2
 15.5%Fangorn 12.5%market +3.0pp
P 16.7
F 15.5
V 12.4
4.4pp 0.959xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
05
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 2
 11.4%Fangorn 8.7%market +2.7pp
P 11.6
F 11.4
V 12.2
0.8pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
06
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 3
 15.5%Fangorn 13.3%market +2.3pp
P 15.3
F 15.5
V 12.7
2.9pp 0.959xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
07
Trevor Larnach MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 7
 13.6%Fangorn 11.9%market +1.6pp
P 13.6
F 13.6
V 10.5
3.1pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 705 avg 3 books
08
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs ATLChris Sale · slot 1
 17.0%Fangorn 17.9%market -0.9pp
P 17.8
F 17.0
V 11.8
6.0pp 1.214xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
09
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 4
 13.6%Fangorn 15.5%market -1.9pp
P 14.7
F 13.6
V 13.7
1.1pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
10
Cedric Mullins TB
Lineup pending
TB vs TORShane Bieber · slot 5
 12.2%Fangorn 14.2%market -2.0pp
P 14.3
F 12.2
V 12.9
2.1pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
11
Daniel Schneemann CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 6
 8.6%Fangorn 11.1%market -2.5pp
P 13.2
F 8.6
V 11.2
4.6pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 800 avg 3 books
12
Jackson Merrill SD
Lineup pending
SD vs ATLChris Sale · slot 3
 11.4%Fangorn 15.3%market -3.9pp
P 15.3
F 11.4
V 11.5
3.9pp 1.214xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
13
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs ATLChris Sale · slot 2
 15.5%Fangorn 19.6%market -4.1pp
P 17.2
F 15.5
V 12.1
5.0pp 1.214xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
14
Carlos Santana AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 5
 9.6%Fangorn 14.2%market -4.6pp
P 12.3
F 9.6
V 12.3
2.7pp 0.959xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
15
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 1
 15.5%Fangorn 18.4%market -2.8pp
P 16.4
F 15.5
V 12.9
3.5pp 0.959xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
16
Kyle Manzardo CLE
IN
CLE vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 3
 13.6%Fangorn 17.5%market -4.0pp
P 15.6
F 13.6
V 14.3
2.0pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
17
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 5
 11.6%Fangorn 15.8%market -4.2pp
P 11.5
F 11.6
V 14.1
2.5pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
18
José Ramírez CLE
IN
CLE vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 1
 15.5%Fangorn 20.4%market -4.9pp
P 16.8
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.3pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
19
Byron Buxton MIN
IN Triple
MIN vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 3
 14.9%Fangorn 21.1%market -6.1pp
P 14.3
F 14.9
V 14.6
0.6pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
20
Ketel Marte AZ
IN
AZ vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 2
 14.9%Fangorn 21.1%market -6.1pp
P 15.2
F 14.9
V 14.2
1.0pp 0.959xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
21
Junior Caminero TB
IN Triple
TB vs TORShane Bieber · slot 4
 15.5%Fangorn 22.0%market -6.5pp
P 15.0
F 15.5
V 13.2
2.3pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
22
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs TORShane Bieber · slot 1
 0.0%Fangorn 8.0%market -8.0pp
P 5.5
F 0.0
V 8.2
8.2pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
23
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1
 1.8%Fangorn 11.0%market -9.1pp
P 10.7
F 1.8
V 12.9
11.0pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books

Data context

781 sample flags
Status2234roster/transaction rows
Lineups90confirmed starters
Triple2cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.