Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-07-23 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
23
Matched
87
Lineups
90
HR BOARD 2026-07-23 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 2
 12.2%Valinor 8.7%market +3.2pp
P 11.6
F 11.4
V 12.2
0.8pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
02
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 3
 10.4%Valinor 9.3%market +0.7pp
P 13.8
F 13.6
V 10.4
3.4pp 0.959xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
03
Daniel Schneemann CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 6
 11.2%Valinor 10.6%market +0.2pp
P 13.2
F 8.6
V 11.2
4.6pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 810 avg 3 books
04
Iván Herrera STL
Lineup pending
STL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 2
 12.4%Valinor 12.5%market -0.6pp
P 16.7
F 15.5
V 12.4
4.4pp 0.959xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
05
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs TORShane Bieber · slot 2
 14.3%Valinor 14.4%market -0.6pp
P 16.5
F 22.3
V 14.3
7.9pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 570 avg 3 books
06
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs TORShane Bieber · slot 3
 12.6%Valinor 13.3%market -0.7pp
P 16.3
F 22.3
V 12.6
9.7pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
07
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 3
 12.7%Valinor 13.3%market -1.1pp
P 15.3
F 15.5
V 12.7
2.9pp 0.959xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
08
Cedric Mullins TB
Lineup pending
TB vs TORShane Bieber · slot 5
 12.9%Valinor 13.6%market -1.2pp
P 14.3
F 12.2
V 12.9
2.1pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
09
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 4
 13.7%Valinor 15.0%market -1.8pp
P 14.7
F 13.6
V 13.7
1.1pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
10
Carlos Santana AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 5
 12.3%Valinor 13.7%market -1.8pp
P 12.3
F 9.6
V 12.3
2.7pp 0.959xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 605 avg 3 books
11
Trevor Larnach MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 7
 10.5%Valinor 12.5%market -2.0pp
P 13.6
F 13.6
V 10.5
3.1pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
12
Jackson Merrill SD
Lineup pending
SD vs ATLChris Sale · slot 3
 11.5%Valinor 14.8%market -3.8pp
P 15.3
F 11.4
V 11.5
3.9pp 1.214xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
13
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs ATLChris Sale · slot 1
 11.8%Valinor 17.4%market -6.2pp
P 17.8
F 17.0
V 11.8
6.0pp 1.214xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
14
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs ATLChris Sale · slot 2
 12.1%Valinor 19.1%market -7.7pp
P 17.2
F 15.5
V 12.1
5.0pp 1.214xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
15
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1
 12.9%Valinor 10.5%market +2.0pp
P 10.7
F 1.8
V 12.9
11.0pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
16
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs TORShane Bieber · slot 1
 8.2%Valinor 7.7%market +0.2pp
P 5.5
F 0.0
V 8.2
8.2pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
17
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 5
 14.1%Valinor 15.2%market -1.7pp
P 11.5
F 11.6
V 14.1
2.5pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
18
Kyle Manzardo CLE
IN
CLE vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 3
 14.3%Valinor 17.1%market -3.4pp
P 15.6
F 13.6
V 14.3
2.0pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
19
José Ramírez CLE
IN
CLE vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 1
 15.5%Valinor 19.9%market -5.1pp
P 16.8
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.3pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
20
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 1
 12.9%Valinor 17.9%market -5.6pp
P 16.4
F 15.5
V 12.9
3.5pp 0.959xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
21
Byron Buxton MIN
IN Triple
MIN vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 3
 14.6%Valinor 20.5%market -6.6pp
P 14.3
F 14.9
V 14.6
0.6pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
22
Ketel Marte AZ
IN
AZ vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 2
 14.2%Valinor 20.5%market -7.1pp
P 15.2
F 14.9
V 14.2
1.0pp 0.959xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
23
Junior Caminero TB
IN Triple
TB vs TORShane Bieber · slot 4
 13.2%Valinor 21.5%market -9.0pp
P 15.0
F 15.5
V 13.2
2.3pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books

Data context

781 sample flags
Status2234roster/transaction rows
Lineups90confirmed starters
Triple2cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.