Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-08-17 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
59
Matched
213
Lineups
195
HR BOARD 2026-08-17 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Jordan Beck COL
IN
COL vs LADBlake Snell · slot 7
 13.3%Palantir 10.0%market +3.3pp
P 13.3
F 11.9
V 10.0
3.3pp 1.084xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 870 avg 3 books
02
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 1
 13.6%Palantir 10.9%market +2.7pp
P 13.6
F 11.9
V 10.6
3.0pp 1.128xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 785 avg 3 books
03
Austin Hays CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 5
 13.9%Palantir 11.7%market +2.3pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 11.5
2.4pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 725 avg 3 books
04
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 3
 14.8%Palantir 12.7%market +2.1pp
P 14.8
F 14.7
V 13.3
1.5pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
05
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3
 13.5%Palantir 11.7%market +1.8pp
P 13.5
F 13.3
V 11.5
2.0pp 0.940xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
06
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 4
 13.1%Palantir 11.7%market +1.4pp
P 13.1
F 13.3
V 11.4
1.9pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
07
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 6
 12.3%Palantir 11.0%market +1.3pp
P 12.3
F 13.3
V 11.5
1.8pp 1.092xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
08
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 5
 11.9%Palantir 10.7%market +1.2pp
P 11.9
F 12.8
V 12.3
0.9pp 1.092xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
09
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs LADBlake Snell · slot 1
 11.1%Palantir 9.9%market +1.2pp
P 11.1
F 12.7
V 13.2
2.1pp 1.084xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 875 avg 3 books
10
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1
 8.9%Palantir 7.7%market +1.2pp
P 8.9
F 12.2
V 10.4
3.3pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
11
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 6
 14.4%Palantir 13.5%market +1.0pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 12.0
2.4pp 1.128xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
12
Tj Friedl CIN
IN
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 2
 13.6%Palantir 12.7%market +0.9pp
P 13.6
F 13.0
V 11.5
2.1pp 1.057xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
13
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 2
 14.9%Palantir 14.2%market +0.7pp
P 14.9
F 14.7
V 15.4
0.7pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
14
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 5
 14.1%Palantir 13.5%market +0.6pp
P 14.1
F 13.1
V 17.0
3.9pp 1.128xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
15
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 2
 16.8%Palantir 16.2%market +0.6pp
P 16.8
F 13.4
V 16.1
3.3pp 1.084xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
16
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs LADBlake Snell · slot 4
 13.3%Palantir 12.9%market +0.4pp
P 13.3
F 12.7
V 14.5
1.8pp 1.084xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 645 avg 3 books
17
Ryan Jeffers MIN
IN
MIN vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 6
 12.8%Palantir 12.4%market +0.4pp
P 12.8
F 13.1
V 11.6
1.4pp 1.128xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
18
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 6
 10.7%Palantir 11.0%market -0.3pp
P 10.7
F 12.4
V 11.5
1.7pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
19
Brenton Doyle COL
IN
COL vs LADBlake Snell · slot 5
 12.7%Palantir 13.2%market -0.5pp
P 12.7
F 12.8
V 13.4
0.7pp 1.084xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 655 avg 3 books
20
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 1
 14.2%Palantir 14.8%market -0.6pp
P 14.2
F 13.1
V 15.3
2.2pp 1.092xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
21
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 5
 15.4%Palantir 16.1%market -0.7pp
P 15.4
F 13.4
V 15.8
2.4pp 1.084xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
22
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 1
 15.0%Palantir 15.8%market -0.7pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 13.4
1.6pp 1.057xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
23
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 4
 14.5%Palantir 15.4%market -0.9pp
P 14.5
F 13.3
V 13.8
1.2pp 1.128xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
24
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 5
 13.1%Palantir 14.2%market -1.1pp
P 13.1
F 12.8
V 13.7
0.9pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
25
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 4
 14.3%Palantir 15.5%market -1.2pp
P 14.3
F 13.3
V 15.4
2.1pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
26
Heriberto Hernández MIA
IN
MIA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 6
 11.3%Palantir 12.5%market -1.2pp
P 11.3
F 12.3
V 13.2
1.9pp 1.092xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
27
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 6
 12.1%Palantir 13.4%market -1.3pp
P 12.1
F 11.9
V 10.5
1.6pp 1.057xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
28
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 5
 11.4%Palantir 12.8%market -1.4pp
P 11.4
F 12.8
V 12.6
1.4pp 1.057xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
29
Agustín Ramírez MIA
IN
MIA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 4
 13.7%Palantir 15.3%market -1.6pp
P 13.7
F 13.0
V 14.7
1.6pp 1.092xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
30
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 5
 12.3%Palantir 14.1%market -1.8pp
P 12.3
F 12.7
V 13.9
1.6pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
31
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 5
 11.6%Palantir 13.8%market -2.2pp
P 11.6
F 12.4
V 14.0
2.4pp 0.940xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
32
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 5
 12.7%Palantir 15.3%market -2.6pp
P 12.7
F 13.0
V 15.3
2.6pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
33
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3
 13.0%Palantir 16.0%market -3.0pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 15.5
2.5pp 1.128xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
34
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 3
 15.8%Palantir 19.1%market -3.2pp
P 15.8
F 13.4
V 15.6
2.4pp 1.084xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
35
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4
 12.8%Palantir 17.0%market -4.1pp
P 12.8
F 12.8
V 16.3
3.5pp 1.128xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
36
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 4
 14.2%Palantir 18.4%market -4.1pp
P 14.2
F 13.1
V 16.7
3.6pp 1.084xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
37
Jakob Marsee MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 2
 10.7%Palantir 9.4%market +1.3pp
P 10.7
F 12.7
V 14.4
3.7pp 1.092xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 930 avg 3 books
38
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 1
 9.7%Palantir 8.7%market +1.0pp
P 9.7
F 12.4
V 12.4
2.7pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
39
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 1
 8.5%Palantir 7.7%market +0.8pp
P 8.5
F 12.2
V 13.6
5.1pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
40
Jacob Wilson ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 6
 8.7%Palantir 9.2%market -0.5pp
P 8.7
F 4.0
V 8.7
4.7pp 1.011xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 985 avg 3 books
41
Jake Mangum PIT
IN
PIT vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 1
 7.2%Palantir 8.0%market -0.8pp
P 7.2
F 11.0
V 9.8
3.7pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
42
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 1
 7.0%Palantir 8.0%market -1.0pp
P 7.0
F 11.0
V 11.6
4.6pp 1.092xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
43
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 4
 13.8%Palantir 15.6%market -1.8pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 14.1
0.7pp 1.011xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
44
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 1
 4.8%Palantir 8.0%market -3.2pp
P 4.8
F 4.0
V 7.8
3.8pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
45
Jorge Polanco NYM
IN
NYM vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 4
 13.5%Palantir 17.1%market -3.6pp
P 13.5
F 13.4
V 15.3
1.9pp 0.940xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
46
Spencer Torkelson DET
Lineup pending
DET vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 5
 13.4%Palantir 17.0%market -3.6pp
P 13.4
F 13.1
V 17.2
4.1pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
47
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 3
 15.0%Palantir 18.7%market -3.7pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 15.9
2.4pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
48
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 5
 12.6%Palantir 16.7%market -4.1pp
P 12.6
F 13.0
V 14.4
1.8pp 1.128xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
49
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 2
 15.3%Palantir 19.6%market -4.4pp
P 15.3
F 13.4
V 17.8
4.4pp 1.092xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
50
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1
 14.9%Palantir 19.4%market -4.5pp
P 14.9
F 13.3
V 17.0
3.6pp 1.128xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
51
Hunter Goodman COL
Lineup pending
COL vs LADBlake Snell · slot 2
 14.6%Palantir 19.4%market -4.8pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 14.0
1.2pp 1.084xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
52
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 2
 14.5%Palantir 19.4%market -4.9pp
P 14.5
F 13.1
V 15.6
2.5pp 0.940xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
53
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 6
 13.6%Palantir 19.2%market -5.7pp
P 13.6
F 12.8
V 13.6
0.8pp 1.084xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
54
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 2
 15.6%Palantir 21.7%market -6.1pp
P 15.6
F 13.4
V 17.0
3.6pp 1.128xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
55
Byron Buxton MIN
IN
MIN vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 3
 15.2%Palantir 22.0%market -6.8pp
P 15.2
F 14.7
V 14.4
0.8pp 1.128xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
56
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 4
 13.7%Palantir 22.0%market -8.3pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 14.2
0.7pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
57
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 3
 13.0%Palantir 21.7%market -8.8pp
P 13.0
F 12.8
V 14.5
1.6pp 1.057xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
58
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 3
 14.3%Palantir 27.0%market -12.7pp
P 14.3
F 13.3
V 15.6
2.3pp 1.092xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
59
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 1
 15.6%Palantir 29.8%market -14.2pp
P 15.6
F 13.4
V 22.4
9.0pp 1.084xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2490roster/transaction rows
Lineups195confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.