Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-08-17 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health
2026-09-02
Palantir
18081 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
18081 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12423 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.004
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Chase Meidroth
CWS
IN
|
CWS vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1 |
12.2%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +4.5pp |
P
8.9
F
12.2
V
10.4
|
3.3pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Willi Castro
COL
IN
|
COL vs LADBlake Snell · slot 1 |
12.7%Fangorn | 9.9%market | +2.8pp |
P
11.1
F
12.7
V
13.2
|
2.1pp | 1.084xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 875 avg 3 books |
| 03 |
Brandon Marsh
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 6 |
13.3%Fangorn | 11.0%market | +2.3pp |
P
12.3
F
13.3
V
11.5
|
1.8pp | 1.092xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 780 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Alec Bohm
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 5 |
12.8%Fangorn | 10.7%market | +2.2pp |
P
11.9
F
12.8
V
12.3
|
0.9pp | 1.092xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 805 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Jordan Beck
COL
IN
|
COL vs LADBlake Snell · slot 7 |
11.9%Fangorn | 10.0%market | +2.0pp |
P
13.3
F
11.9
V
10.0
|
3.3pp | 1.084xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 870 avg 3 books |
| 06 | IN | TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 3 |
14.7%Fangorn | 12.7%market | +2.0pp |
P
14.8
F
14.7
V
13.3
|
1.5pp | 1.050xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 655 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Colt Keith
DET
IN
|
DET vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 6 |
12.4%Fangorn | 10.5%market | +1.9pp |
P
10.7
F
12.4
V
11.5
|
1.7pp | 0.979xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 820 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Austin Hays
CWS
Lineup pending
|
CWS vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 5 |
13.4%Fangorn | 11.7%market | +1.8pp |
P
13.9
F
13.4
V
11.5
|
2.4pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 725 avg 3 books |
| 09 | Lineup pending | CWS vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 4 |
13.3%Fangorn | 11.7%market | +1.6pp |
P
13.1
F
13.3
V
11.4
|
1.9pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 725 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Bo Bichette
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3 |
13.3%Fangorn | 11.7%market | +1.6pp |
P
13.5
F
13.3
V
11.5
|
2.0pp | 0.940xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 725 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Luke Keaschall
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 1 |
11.9%Fangorn | 10.9%market | +1.0pp |
P
13.6
F
11.9
V
10.6
|
3.0pp | 1.128xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 785 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Ryan Jeffers
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 6 |
13.1%Fangorn | 12.4%market | +0.7pp |
P
12.8
F
13.1
V
11.6
|
1.4pp | 1.128xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 675 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Tyler Stephenson
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 5 |
12.8%Fangorn | 12.3%market | +0.5pp |
P
11.4
F
12.8
V
12.6
|
1.4pp | 1.057xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 685 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Yandy Díaz
TB
IN
|
TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 2 |
14.7%Fangorn | 14.2%market | +0.5pp |
P
14.9
F
14.7
V
15.4
|
0.7pp | 1.050xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 575 avg 3 books |
| 15 | IN | MIA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 6 |
12.3%Fangorn | 12.0%market | +0.3pp |
P
11.3
F
12.3
V
13.2
|
1.9pp | 1.092xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 705 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Tj Friedl
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 2 |
13.0%Fangorn | 12.7%market | +0.3pp |
P
13.6
F
13.0
V
11.5
|
2.1pp | 1.057xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 655 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Brenton Doyle
COL
IN
|
COL vs LADBlake Snell · slot 5 |
12.8%Fangorn | 13.2%market | -0.4pp |
P
12.7
F
12.8
V
13.4
|
0.7pp | 1.084xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 655 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Mike Yastrzemski
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 6 |
13.4%Fangorn | 14.1%market | -0.6pp |
P
14.4
F
13.4
V
12.0
|
2.4pp | 1.128xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 610 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Ezequiel Tovar
COL
IN
|
COL vs LADBlake Snell · slot 4 |
12.7%Fangorn | 13.5%market | -0.8pp |
P
13.3
F
12.7
V
14.5
|
1.8pp | 1.084xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 640 avg 3 books |
| 20 |
Ozzie Albies
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 5 |
13.1%Fangorn | 14.1%market | -1.0pp |
P
14.1
F
13.1
V
17.0
|
3.9pp | 1.128xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 610 avg 3 books |
| 21 | IN | TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 5 |
12.8%Fangorn | 14.2%market | -1.3pp |
P
13.1
F
12.8
V
13.7
|
0.9pp | 1.050xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 605 avg 3 books |
| 22 |
Bryan Reynolds
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 5 |
12.7%Fangorn | 14.1%market | -1.4pp |
P
12.3
F
12.7
V
13.9
|
1.6pp | 0.979xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 610 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
Marcus Semien
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 5 |
12.4%Fangorn | 13.8%market | -1.4pp |
P
11.6
F
12.4
V
14.0
|
2.4pp | 0.940xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 625 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
Jj Bleday
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 6 |
11.9%Fangorn | 13.4%market | -1.5pp |
P
12.1
F
11.9
V
10.5
|
1.6pp | 1.057xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 645 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Trea Turner
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 1 |
13.1%Fangorn | 14.8%market | -1.7pp |
P
14.2
F
13.1
V
15.3
|
2.2pp | 1.092xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 575 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Josh Bell
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 4 |
13.3%Fangorn | 15.4%market | -2.1pp |
P
14.5
F
13.3
V
13.8
|
1.2pp | 1.128xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 550 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Ian Happ
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 4 |
13.3%Fangorn | 15.5%market | -2.2pp |
P
14.3
F
13.3
V
15.4
|
2.1pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 545 avg 3 books |
| 28 |
Agustín Ramírez
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 4 |
13.0%Fangorn | 15.3%market | -2.2pp |
P
13.7
F
13.0
V
14.7
|
1.6pp | 1.092xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 555 avg 3 books |
| 29 |
Alex Bregman
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 5 |
13.0%Fangorn | 15.3%market | -2.2pp |
P
12.7
F
13.0
V
15.3
|
2.6pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 555 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Elly De La Cruz
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 1 |
13.4%Fangorn | 15.8%market | -2.3pp |
P
15.0
F
13.4
V
13.4
|
1.6pp | 1.057xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 535 avg 3 books |
| 31 |
Drake Baldwin
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3 |
13.4%Fangorn | 16.0%market | -2.6pp |
P
13.0
F
13.4
V
15.5
|
2.5pp | 1.128xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 525 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Mookie Betts
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 5 |
13.4%Fangorn | 16.1%market | -2.7pp |
P
15.4
F
13.4
V
15.8
|
2.4pp | 1.084xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 520 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Freddie Freeman
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 2 |
13.4%Fangorn | 17.0%market | -3.5pp |
P
16.8
F
13.4
V
16.1
|
3.3pp | 1.084xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 490 avg 3 books |
| 34 |
Austin Riley
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4 |
12.8%Fangorn | 17.0%market | -4.1pp |
P
12.8
F
12.8
V
16.3
|
3.5pp | 1.128xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 490 avg 3 books |
| 35 | IN | LAD vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 4 |
13.1%Fangorn | 18.4%market | -5.3pp |
P
14.2
F
13.1
V
16.7
|
3.6pp | 1.084xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 445 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Kyle Tucker
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 3 |
13.4%Fangorn | 19.1%market | -5.6pp |
P
15.8
F
13.4
V
15.6
|
2.4pp | 1.084xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 425 avg 3 books |
| 37 |
Nico Hoerner
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 1 |
12.2%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +4.5pp |
P
8.5
F
12.2
V
13.6
|
5.1pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 38 |
Zach McKinstry
DET
IN
|
DET vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 1 |
12.4%Fangorn | 8.7%market | +3.7pp |
P
9.7
F
12.4
V
12.4
|
2.7pp | 0.979xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books |
| 39 |
Jakob Marsee
MIA
Lineup pending
|
MIA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 2 |
12.7%Fangorn | 9.4%market | +3.3pp |
P
10.7
F
12.7
V
14.4
|
3.7pp | 1.092xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 930 avg 3 books |
| 40 |
Jake Mangum
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 1 |
11.0%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +3.3pp |
P
7.2
F
11.0
V
9.8
|
3.7pp | 0.979xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Xavier Edwards
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 1 |
11.0%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +3.3pp |
P
7.0
F
11.0
V
11.6
|
4.6pp | 1.092xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 42 |
Lawrence Butler
ATH
IN
|
ATH vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 4 |
13.4%Fangorn | 15.6%market | -2.2pp |
P
13.8
F
13.4
V
14.1
|
0.7pp | 1.011xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 540 avg 3 books |
| 43 |
Royce Lewis
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 5 |
13.0%Fangorn | 16.7%market | -3.6pp |
P
12.6
F
13.0
V
14.4
|
1.8pp | 1.128xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 500 avg 3 books |
| 44 |
Jorge Polanco
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 4 |
13.4%Fangorn | 17.1%market | -3.7pp |
P
13.5
F
13.4
V
15.3
|
1.9pp | 0.940xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 485 avg 3 books |
| 45 | Lineup pending | DET vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 5 |
13.1%Fangorn | 17.0%market | -3.9pp |
P
13.4
F
13.1
V
17.2
|
4.1pp | 0.979xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 490 avg 3 books |
| 46 | IN | TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 1 |
4.0%Fangorn | 8.0%market | -4.0pp |
P
4.8
F
4.0
V
7.8
|
3.8pp | 1.050xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books |
| 47 |
Jacob Wilson
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 6 |
4.0%Fangorn | 9.2%market | -5.2pp |
P
8.7
F
4.0
V
8.7
|
4.7pp | 1.011xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 985 avg 3 books |
| 48 |
Michael Busch
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 3 |
13.4%Fangorn | 18.7%market | -5.3pp |
P
15.0
F
13.4
V
15.9
|
2.4pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 435 avg 3 books |
| 49 |
Hunter Goodman
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs LADBlake Snell · slot 2 |
13.4%Fangorn | 19.4%market | -6.0pp |
P
14.6
F
13.4
V
14.0
|
1.2pp | 1.084xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 415 avg 3 books |
| 50 |
Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1 |
13.3%Fangorn | 19.4%market | -6.1pp |
P
14.9
F
13.3
V
17.0
|
3.6pp | 1.128xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 415 avg 3 books |
| 51 |
Bryce Harper
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 2 |
13.4%Fangorn | 19.6%market | -6.2pp |
P
15.3
F
13.4
V
17.8
|
4.4pp | 1.092xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 410 avg 3 books |
| 52 |
Francisco Lindor
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 2 |
13.1%Fangorn | 19.4%market | -6.3pp |
P
14.5
F
13.1
V
15.6
|
2.5pp | 0.940xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 415 avg 3 books |
| 53 |
Max Muncy
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 6 |
12.8%Fangorn | 19.2%market | -6.4pp |
P
13.6
F
12.8
V
13.6
|
0.8pp | 1.084xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 420 avg 3 books |
| 54 |
Byron Buxton
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 3 |
14.7%Fangorn | 22.0%market | -7.3pp |
P
15.2
F
14.7
V
14.4
|
0.8pp | 1.128xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 355 avg 3 books |
| 55 |
Matt Olson
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 2 |
13.4%Fangorn | 21.7%market | -8.3pp |
P
15.6
F
13.4
V
17.0
|
3.6pp | 1.128xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 360 avg 3 books |
| 56 | IN | TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 4 |
13.4%Fangorn | 22.0%market | -8.5pp |
P
13.7
F
13.4
V
14.2
|
0.7pp | 1.050xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 355 avg 3 books |
| 57 |
Eugenio Suárez
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 3 |
12.8%Fangorn | 21.7%market | -8.9pp |
P
13.0
F
12.8
V
14.5
|
1.6pp | 1.057xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 360 avg 3 books |
| 58 |
Kyle Schwarber
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 3 |
13.3%Fangorn | 27.0%market | -13.7pp |
P
14.3
F
13.3
V
15.6
|
2.3pp | 1.092xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 270 avg 3 books |
| 59 |
Shohei Ohtani
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 1 |
13.4%Fangorn | 29.8%market | -16.4pp |
P
15.6
F
13.4
V
22.4
|
9.0pp | 1.084xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 235 avg 3 books |
Data context
780 sample flagsStatus2490roster/transaction rows
Lineups195confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.