Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-08-17 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health
2026-09-01
Palantir
17901 props
Brier 0.117
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
17901 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12243 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.005
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Ozzie Albies
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 5 |
17.0%Valinor | 13.5%market | +3.0pp |
P
14.1
F
13.1
V
17.0
|
3.9pp | 1.128xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 615 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Willi Castro
COL
IN
|
COL vs LADBlake Snell · slot 1 |
13.2%Valinor | 9.9%market | +2.9pp |
P
11.1
F
12.7
V
13.2
|
2.1pp | 1.084xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 875 avg 3 books |
| 03 |
Chase Meidroth
CWS
IN
|
CWS vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1 |
10.4%Valinor | 7.7%market | +2.5pp |
P
8.9
F
12.2
V
10.4
|
3.3pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Alec Bohm
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 5 |
12.3%Valinor | 10.7%market | +1.2pp |
P
11.9
F
12.8
V
12.3
|
0.9pp | 1.092xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 805 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Ezequiel Tovar
COL
IN
|
COL vs LADBlake Snell · slot 4 |
14.5%Valinor | 12.9%market | +1.1pp |
P
13.3
F
12.7
V
14.5
|
1.8pp | 1.084xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 645 avg 3 books |
| 06 | IN | MIA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 6 |
13.2%Valinor | 12.0%market | +0.8pp |
P
11.3
F
12.3
V
13.2
|
1.9pp | 1.092xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 705 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Colt Keith
DET
IN
|
DET vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 6 |
11.5%Valinor | 10.5%market | +0.6pp |
P
10.7
F
12.4
V
11.5
|
1.7pp | 0.979xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 820 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Yandy Díaz
TB
IN
|
TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 2 |
15.4%Valinor | 14.2%market | +0.6pp |
P
14.9
F
14.7
V
15.4
|
0.7pp | 1.050xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 575 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Trea Turner
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 1 |
15.3%Valinor | 14.1%market | +0.5pp |
P
14.2
F
13.1
V
15.3
|
2.2pp | 1.092xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 580 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Marcus Semien
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 5 |
14.0%Valinor | 13.2%market | +0.3pp |
P
11.6
F
12.4
V
14.0
|
2.4pp | 0.940xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 630 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Brandon Marsh
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 6 |
11.5%Valinor | 11.0%market | +0.2pp |
P
12.3
F
13.3
V
11.5
|
1.8pp | 1.092xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 780 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Alex Bregman
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 5 |
15.3%Valinor | 14.6%market | +0.2pp |
P
12.7
F
13.0
V
15.3
|
2.6pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 560 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Brenton Doyle
COL
IN
|
COL vs LADBlake Snell · slot 5 |
13.4%Valinor | 12.7%market | +0.1pp |
P
12.7
F
12.8
V
13.4
|
0.7pp | 1.084xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 655 avg 3 books |
| 14 | IN | TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 3 |
13.3%Valinor | 12.7%market | +0.1pp |
P
14.8
F
14.7
V
13.3
|
1.5pp | 1.050xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 655 avg 3 books |
| 15 |
Ian Happ
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 4 |
15.4%Valinor | 15.0%market | -0.1pp |
P
14.3
F
13.3
V
15.4
|
2.1pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 545 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Bryan Reynolds
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 5 |
13.9%Valinor | 13.6%market | -0.1pp |
P
12.3
F
12.7
V
13.9
|
1.6pp | 0.979xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 610 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Tyler Stephenson
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 5 |
12.6%Valinor | 12.3%market | -0.2pp |
P
11.4
F
12.8
V
12.6
|
1.4pp | 1.057xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 680 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Jordan Beck
COL
IN
|
COL vs LADBlake Snell · slot 7 |
10.0%Valinor | 10.0%market | -0.4pp |
P
13.3
F
11.9
V
10.0
|
3.3pp | 1.084xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 860 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Mookie Betts
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 5 |
15.8%Valinor | 15.7%market | -0.5pp |
P
15.4
F
13.4
V
15.8
|
2.4pp | 1.084xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 20 | IN | TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 5 |
13.7%Valinor | 13.6%market | -0.5pp |
P
13.1
F
12.8
V
13.7
|
0.9pp | 1.050xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 605 avg 3 books |
| 21 |
Agustín Ramírez
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 4 |
14.7%Valinor | 14.8%market | -0.6pp |
P
13.7
F
13.0
V
14.7
|
1.6pp | 1.092xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 555 avg 3 books |
| 22 |
Austin Riley
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4 |
16.3%Valinor | 16.4%market | -0.6pp |
P
12.8
F
12.8
V
16.3
|
3.5pp | 1.128xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 490 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
Drake Baldwin
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3 |
15.5%Valinor | 15.6%market | -0.6pp |
P
13.0
F
13.4
V
15.5
|
2.5pp | 1.128xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 520 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
Austin Hays
CWS
Lineup pending
|
CWS vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 5 |
11.5%Valinor | 12.2%market | -0.7pp |
P
13.9
F
13.4
V
11.5
|
2.4pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 720 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Bo Bichette
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3 |
11.5%Valinor | 11.7%market | -0.7pp |
P
13.5
F
13.3
V
11.5
|
2.0pp | 0.940xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 720 avg 3 books |
| 26 | Lineup pending | CWS vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 4 |
11.4%Valinor | 11.7%market | -0.8pp |
P
13.1
F
13.3
V
11.4
|
1.9pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 720 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Luke Keaschall
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 1 |
10.6%Valinor | 11.0%market | -0.8pp |
P
13.6
F
11.9
V
10.6
|
3.0pp | 1.128xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 775 avg 3 books |
| 28 |
Freddie Freeman
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 2 |
16.1%Valinor | 16.5%market | -1.0pp |
P
16.8
F
13.4
V
16.1
|
3.3pp | 1.084xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 485 avg 3 books |
| 29 |
Ryan Jeffers
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 6 |
11.6%Valinor | 12.4%market | -1.3pp |
P
12.8
F
13.1
V
11.6
|
1.4pp | 1.128xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 675 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Josh Bell
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 4 |
13.8%Valinor | 14.9%market | -1.6pp |
P
14.5
F
13.3
V
13.8
|
1.2pp | 1.128xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 550 avg 3 books |
| 31 | IN | LAD vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 4 |
16.7%Valinor | 17.9%market | -1.8pp |
P
14.2
F
13.1
V
16.7
|
3.6pp | 1.084xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 440 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Tj Friedl
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 2 |
11.5%Valinor | 13.3%market | -1.8pp |
P
13.6
F
13.0
V
11.5
|
2.1pp | 1.057xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 650 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Mike Yastrzemski
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 6 |
12.0%Valinor | 13.6%market | -2.0pp |
P
14.4
F
13.4
V
12.0
|
2.4pp | 1.128xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 610 avg 3 books |
| 34 |
Elly De La Cruz
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 1 |
13.4%Valinor | 15.3%market | -2.5pp |
P
15.0
F
13.4
V
13.4
|
1.6pp | 1.057xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 530 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
Jj Bleday
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 6 |
10.5%Valinor | 13.0%market | -2.9pp |
P
12.1
F
11.9
V
10.5
|
1.6pp | 1.057xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 645 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Kyle Tucker
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 3 |
15.6%Valinor | 18.6%market | -3.7pp |
P
15.8
F
13.4
V
15.6
|
2.4pp | 1.084xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 420 avg 3 books |
| 37 |
Shohei Ohtani
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 1 |
22.4%Valinor | 29.3%market | -7.9pp |
P
15.6
F
13.4
V
22.4
|
9.0pp | 1.084xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 230 avg 3 books |
| 38 |
Kyle Schwarber
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 3 |
15.6%Valinor | 26.5%market | -11.8pp |
P
14.3
F
13.3
V
15.6
|
2.3pp | 1.092xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 265 avg 3 books |
| 39 |
Nico Hoerner
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 1 |
13.6%Valinor | 7.7%market | +5.6pp |
P
8.5
F
12.2
V
13.6
|
5.1pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 40 |
Jakob Marsee
MIA
Lineup pending
|
MIA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 2 |
14.4%Valinor | 9.4%market | +4.7pp |
P
10.7
F
12.7
V
14.4
|
3.7pp | 1.092xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 930 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Xavier Edwards
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 1 |
11.6%Valinor | 7.7%market | +3.6pp |
P
7.0
F
11.0
V
11.6
|
4.6pp | 1.092xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 42 |
Zach McKinstry
DET
IN
|
DET vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 1 |
12.4%Valinor | 8.7%market | +3.4pp |
P
9.7
F
12.4
V
12.4
|
2.7pp | 0.979xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books |
| 43 |
Jake Mangum
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 1 |
9.8%Valinor | 7.7%market | +1.8pp |
P
7.2
F
11.0
V
9.8
|
3.7pp | 0.979xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 44 | Lineup pending | DET vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 5 |
17.2%Valinor | 16.2%market | +0.4pp |
P
13.4
F
13.1
V
17.2
|
4.1pp | 0.979xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 495 avg 3 books |
| 45 | IN | TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 1 |
7.8%Valinor | 7.7%market | -0.2pp |
P
4.8
F
4.0
V
7.8
|
3.8pp | 1.050xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 46 |
Jacob Wilson
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 6 |
8.7%Valinor | 8.9%market | -0.5pp |
P
8.7
F
4.0
V
8.7
|
4.7pp | 1.011xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 980 avg 3 books |
| 47 |
Lawrence Butler
ATH
IN
|
ATH vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 4 |
14.1%Valinor | 15.1%market | -1.5pp |
P
13.8
F
13.4
V
14.1
|
0.7pp | 1.011xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 540 avg 3 books |
| 48 |
Jorge Polanco
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 4 |
15.3%Valinor | 16.5%market | -1.8pp |
P
13.5
F
13.4
V
15.3
|
1.9pp | 0.940xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 485 avg 3 books |
| 49 |
Bryce Harper
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 2 |
17.8%Valinor | 19.1%market | -1.9pp |
P
15.3
F
13.4
V
17.8
|
4.4pp | 1.092xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 405 avg 3 books |
| 50 |
Royce Lewis
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 5 |
14.4%Valinor | 16.2%market | -2.4pp |
P
12.6
F
13.0
V
14.4
|
1.8pp | 1.128xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 495 avg 3 books |
| 51 |
Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1 |
17.0%Valinor | 18.8%market | -2.5pp |
P
14.9
F
13.3
V
17.0
|
3.6pp | 1.128xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 415 avg 3 books |
| 52 |
Michael Busch
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 3 |
15.9%Valinor | 18.2%market | -3.0pp |
P
15.0
F
13.4
V
15.9
|
2.4pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 430 avg 3 books |
| 53 |
Francisco Lindor
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 2 |
15.6%Valinor | 18.9%market | -4.0pp |
P
14.5
F
13.1
V
15.6
|
2.5pp | 0.940xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 410 avg 3 books |
| 54 |
Matt Olson
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 2 |
17.0%Valinor | 21.2%market | -5.0pp |
P
15.6
F
13.4
V
17.0
|
3.6pp | 1.128xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 355 avg 3 books |
| 55 |
Hunter Goodman
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs LADBlake Snell · slot 2 |
14.0%Valinor | 18.9%market | -5.6pp |
P
14.6
F
13.4
V
14.0
|
1.2pp | 1.084xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 410 avg 3 books |
| 56 |
Max Muncy
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 6 |
13.6%Valinor | 18.8%market | -5.8pp |
P
13.6
F
12.8
V
13.6
|
0.8pp | 1.084xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 415 avg 3 books |
| 57 |
Eugenio Suárez
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 3 |
14.5%Valinor | 21.2%market | -7.5pp |
P
13.0
F
12.8
V
14.5
|
1.6pp | 1.057xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 355 avg 3 books |
| 58 |
Byron Buxton
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 3 |
14.4%Valinor | 21.5%market | -7.8pp |
P
15.2
F
14.7
V
14.4
|
0.8pp | 1.128xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 350 avg 3 books |
| 59 | IN | TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 4 |
14.2%Valinor | 21.5%market | -8.1pp |
P
13.7
F
13.4
V
14.2
|
0.7pp | 1.050xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 350 avg 3 books |
Data context
780 sample flagsStatus2490roster/transaction rows
Lineups195confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.