Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-08-18 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
75
Matched
285
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-18 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Nolan Schanuel LAA
IN
LAA vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 7
 11.6%Valinor 8.5%market +2.8pp
P 11.6
F 12.7
V 11.6
1.2pp 1.106xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
02
Adley Rutschman BAL
IN
BAL vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 5
 15.1%Valinor 11.9%market +2.7pp
P 12.6
F 12.8
V 15.1
2.5pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 710 avg 3 books
03
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs SEABryce Miller · slot 3
 15.3%Valinor 12.5%market +2.3pp
P 13.2
F 13.3
V 15.3
2.1pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
04
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2
 12.6%Valinor 10.1%market +2.1pp
P 12.7
F 12.8
V 12.6
0.2pp 1.063xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
05
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 1
 12.0%Valinor 9.9%market +1.8pp
P 12.7
F 12.8
V 12.0
0.8pp 1.044xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 875 avg 3 books
06
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 6
 9.6%Valinor 7.7%market +1.6pp
P 12.5
F 13.4
V 9.6
3.8pp 1.206xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
07
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 5
 15.6%Valinor 13.5%market +1.6pp
P 12.9
F 12.8
V 15.6
2.7pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
08
Jesús Sánchez TOR
IN
TOR vs TBNick Martinez · slot 5
 14.2%Valinor 12.3%market +1.5pp
P 12.9
F 13.4
V 14.2
1.3pp 1.079xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
09
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs TBNick Martinez · slot 6
 10.9%Valinor 9.1%market +1.5pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 10.9
2.8pp 1.079xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
10
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
 11.7%Valinor 10.0%market +1.3pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 11.7
1.9pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
11
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs DETKeider Montero · slot 5
 15.2%Valinor 13.5%market +1.2pp
P 13.1
F 12.8
V 15.2
2.3pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
12
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 2
 14.7%Valinor 13.1%market +1.1pp
P 16.4
F 13.7
V 14.7
2.7pp 1.050xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
13
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 5
 15.2%Valinor 13.6%market +1.0pp
P 12.2
F 12.7
V 15.2
3.0pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
14
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 5
 11.2%Valinor 9.8%market +1.0pp
P 12.9
F 13.3
V 11.2
2.1pp 1.206xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
15
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 3
 12.3%Valinor 11.1%market +0.9pp
P 16.8
F 12.8
V 12.3
4.4pp 1.206xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
16
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 4
 13.6%Valinor 12.4%market +0.7pp
P 15.2
F 13.4
V 13.6
1.7pp 1.206xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
17
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 3
 9.8%Valinor 8.9%market +0.6pp
P 12.0
F 12.8
V 9.8
3.0pp 1.022xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 990 avg 3 books
18
Brendan Donovan SEA
IN
SEA vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 6
 10.0%Valinor 9.2%market +0.6pp
P 10.7
F 12.8
V 10.0
2.8pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 955 avg 3 books
19
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 4
 14.0%Valinor 12.9%market +0.5pp
P 14.5
F 12.8
V 14.0
1.7pp 1.044xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 645 avg 3 books
20
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 1
 17.2%Valinor 16.3%market +0.3pp
P 15.2
F 13.4
V 17.2
3.8pp 1.106xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 490 avg 3 books
21
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 1
 12.3%Valinor 11.8%market +0.1pp
P 14.5
F 13.1
V 12.3
2.2pp 1.022xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
22
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs SEABryce Miller · slot 2
 17.0%Valinor 16.7%market -0.2pp
P 15.8
F 14.7
V 17.0
2.3pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
23
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 1
 17.2%Valinor 16.8%market -0.2pp
P 13.5
F 12.8
V 17.2
4.3pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 475 avg 3 books
24
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 1
 14.2%Valinor 14.1%market -0.4pp
P 17.1
F 14.7
V 14.2
2.9pp 1.206xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Elite Damageform DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
25
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 5
 14.5%Valinor 14.5%market -0.6pp
P 14.6
F 13.3
V 14.5
1.3pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
26
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 3
 11.9%Valinor 12.7%market -0.8pp
P 15.1
F 13.4
V 11.9
3.2pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
27
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 5
 12.4%Valinor 12.7%market -0.9pp
P 13.9
F 13.0
V 12.4
1.5pp 1.044xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
28
Spencer Horwitz PIT
IN
PIT vs DETKeider Montero · slot 6
 10.8%Valinor 11.8%market -1.0pp
P 12.0
F 13.1
V 10.8
2.3pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
29
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 2
 13.8%Valinor 14.4%market -1.2pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 13.8
0.6pp 1.079xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 570 avg 3 books
30
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 3
 11.9%Valinor 13.3%market -1.4pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 11.9
2.0pp 1.079xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
31
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 5
 12.7%Valinor 13.6%market -1.4pp
P 12.3
F 12.8
V 12.7
0.6pp 1.079xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
32
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 4
 13.8%Valinor 15.0%market -1.7pp
P 13.1
F 13.0
V 13.8
0.8pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
33
Agustín Ramírez MIA
IN
MIA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4
 12.9%Valinor 14.1%market -1.7pp
P 13.1
F 12.8
V 12.9
0.3pp 1.063xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
34
Jordan Beck COL
IN
COL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 7
 8.7%Valinor 10.0%market -1.7pp
P 14.7
F 12.3
V 8.7
6.0pp 1.044xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 860 avg 3 books
35
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 5
 14.5%Valinor 15.7%market -1.8pp
P 14.1
F 13.1
V 14.5
1.4pp 1.044xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
36
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 2
 15.1%Valinor 16.5%market -2.0pp
P 15.4
F 13.3
V 15.1
2.1pp 1.044xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
37
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 4
 11.1%Valinor 13.0%market -2.4pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 11.1
2.7pp 1.068xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
38
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 6
 10.9%Valinor 13.6%market -3.1pp
P 13.2
F 13.3
V 10.9
2.4pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
39
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 7
 9.0%Valinor 12.5%market -3.5pp
P 12.2
F 12.8
V 9.0
3.8pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
40
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 4
 12.8%Valinor 21.5%market -9.5pp
P 12.8
F 13.3
V 12.8
0.6pp 1.079xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
41
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 1
 20.2%Valinor 29.3%market -10.1pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 20.2
6.8pp 1.044xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 230 avg 3 books
42
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 3
 15.5%Valinor 25.1%market -10.5pp
P 14.1
F 12.7
V 15.5
2.8pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 285 avg 3 books
43
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 3
 13.0%Valinor 22.7%market -10.5pp
P 11.8
F 12.4
V 13.0
1.2pp 1.068xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 325 avg 3 books
44
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1
 12.8%Valinor 7.7%market +4.8pp
P 7.7
F 11.9
V 12.8
5.1pp 1.063xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
45
Jake Mangum PIT
IN
PIT vs DETKeider Montero · slot 1
 12.7%Valinor 7.7%market +4.7pp
P 8.2
F 11.9
V 12.7
4.5pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
46
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 1
 11.1%Valinor 7.7%market +3.1pp
P 6.9
F 11.0
V 11.1
4.1pp 1.068xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
47
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 3
 15.6%Valinor 15.3%market -0.2pp
P 14.0
F 12.8
V 15.6
2.8pp 1.022xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
48
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 1
 7.3%Valinor 7.7%market -0.7pp
P 4.3
F 4.0
V 7.3
3.3pp 1.079xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
49
Jorge Polanco NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 4
 15.9%Valinor 16.1%market -0.8pp
P 13.3
F 13.3
V 15.9
2.5pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 500 avg 3 books
50
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 1
 10.2%Valinor 10.6%market -0.8pp
P 8.9
F 4.0
V 10.2
6.1pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 810 avg 3 books
51
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 4
 15.3%Valinor 15.7%market -0.9pp
P 14.4
F 13.3
V 15.3
2.0pp 1.022xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
52
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 5
 14.7%Valinor 15.2%market -1.1pp
P 10.5
F 12.7
V 14.7
4.2pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
53
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 4
 15.1%Valinor 15.6%market -1.1pp
P 13.0
F 13.0
V 15.1
2.0pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
54
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 3
 14.6%Valinor 15.6%market -1.5pp
P 11.9
F 13.3
V 14.6
2.7pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
55
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 4
 15.4%Valinor 16.4%market -1.6pp
P 11.7
F 12.7
V 15.4
3.6pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
56
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs TBNick Martinez · slot 4
 16.1%Valinor 17.1%market -1.6pp
P 13.2
F 12.8
V 16.1
3.3pp 1.079xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
57
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs BALShane Baz · slot 5
 17.5%Valinor 18.6%market -1.7pp
P 14.2
F 13.3
V 17.5
4.2pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
58
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 1
 17.3%Valinor 18.8%market -2.1pp
P 13.7
F 13.1
V 17.3
4.3pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
59
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs TBNick Martinez · slot 1
 15.2%Valinor 17.1%market -2.5pp
P 14.7
F 13.3
V 15.2
1.9pp 1.079xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
60
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs BALShane Baz · slot 6
 13.7%Valinor 15.7%market -2.6pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 13.7
0.6pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
61
Tyler O'Neill BAL
IN
BAL vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 3
 16.6%Valinor 18.6%market -2.6pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 16.6
3.2pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
62
Taylor Ward BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 4
 16.2%Valinor 18.2%market -2.7pp
P 15.7
F 13.4
V 16.2
2.8pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
63
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 2
 16.7%Valinor 18.8%market -2.7pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 16.7
3.3pp 1.106xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
64
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 1
 15.8%Valinor 18.2%market -3.1pp
P 15.1
F 13.3
V 15.8
2.5pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
65
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 2
 16.3%Valinor 18.9%market -3.3pp
P 14.6
F 13.1
V 16.3
3.2pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
66
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 4
 15.0%Valinor 17.9%market -3.5pp
P 13.0
F 12.8
V 15.0
2.1pp 1.044xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
67
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 3
 14.7%Valinor 18.6%market -4.5pp
P 14.5
F 13.1
V 14.7
1.6pp 1.044xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
68
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 2
 19.5%Valinor 23.3%market -4.6pp
P 15.1
F 13.1
V 19.5
6.4pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 315 avg 3 books
69
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 4
 15.1%Valinor 19.1%market -4.7pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 15.1
1.7pp 1.106xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
70
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
 11.7%Valinor 16.4%market -5.2pp
P 13.6
F 13.1
V 11.7
1.9pp 1.022xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
71
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 2
 16.0%Valinor 21.2%market -5.9pp
P 14.4
F 13.1
V 16.0
2.9pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
72
Brandon Lowe PIT
IN
PIT vs DETKeider Montero · slot 4
 14.2%Valinor 19.9%market -6.4pp
P 14.3
F 13.1
V 14.2
1.1pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
73
Byron Buxton MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 3
 14.5%Valinor 20.5%market -6.8pp
P 12.9
F 13.3
V 14.5
1.6pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
74
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 6
 11.7%Valinor 18.8%market -7.7pp
P 12.4
F 12.8
V 11.7
1.1pp 1.044xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
75
Ketel Marte AZ
AZ vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 2
 12.8%Valinor 20.8%market -8.8pp
P 14.0
F 13.3
V 12.8
1.3pp 1.022xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 365 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2476roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.