Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-08-22 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
58
Matched
234
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-22 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 1
 12.1%Fangorn 8.7%market +3.4pp
P 11.0
F 12.1
V 8.2
3.9pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
02
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1
 11.9%Fangorn 9.8%market +2.1pp
P 10.9
F 11.9
V 11.9
1.0pp 1.070xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
03
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 2
 12.1%Fangorn 10.1%market +2.0pp
P 12.0
F 12.1
V 12.1
0.1pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
04
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 5
 11.7%Fangorn 9.8%market +1.9pp
P 9.4
F 11.7
V 9.6
2.4pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
05
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs MINDean Kremer · slot 7
 11.3%Fangorn 9.6%market +1.7pp
P 9.9
F 11.3
V 8.5
2.8pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
06
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 3
 14.1%Fangorn 12.7%market +1.4pp
P 13.5
F 14.1
V 11.5
2.6pp 1.022xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
07
Jeremy Peña HOU
IN
HOU vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 11.6%market +1.0pp
P 13.3
F 12.6
V 11.2
2.1pp 1.056xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 735 avg 3 books
08
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 3
 12.6%Fangorn 11.7%market +0.8pp
P 13.1
F 12.6
V 11.1
2.0pp 1.002xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
09
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 3
 11.3%Fangorn 11.6%market -0.3pp
P 13.2
F 11.3
V 11.0
2.3pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 765 avg 3 books
10
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 12.5%market -0.6pp
P 11.3
F 11.9
V 12.1
0.8pp 1.070xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
11
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 2
 14.1%Fangorn 14.9%market -0.8pp
P 13.6
F 14.1
V 13.3
0.8pp 1.022xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
12
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 4
 12.1%Fangorn 13.0%market -0.8pp
P 12.3
F 12.1
V 12.4
0.3pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
13
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 3
 12.6%Fangorn 13.5%market -1.0pp
P 13.2
F 12.6
V 13.0
0.7pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
14
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 12.8%market -1.0pp
P 10.6
F 11.9
V 12.9
2.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
15
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 2
 12.1%Fangorn 13.3%market -1.2pp
P 12.8
F 12.1
V 12.0
0.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
16
Ezequiel Tovar COL
Lineup pending
COL vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4
 11.7%Fangorn 13.1%market -1.4pp
P 12.1
F 11.7
V 13.1
1.3pp 1.070xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
17
Yainer Diaz HOU
IN
HOU vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 7
 12.1%Fangorn 14.0%market -1.8pp
P 12.0
F 12.1
V 9.9
2.3pp 1.056xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 615 avg 3 books
18
Cj Abrams WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 14.6%market -2.0pp
P 14.1
F 12.6
V 13.2
1.5pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
19
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 6
 11.1%Fangorn 13.4%market -2.3pp
P 11.3
F 11.1
V 10.9
0.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
20
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 14.2%market -2.3pp
P 11.8
F 11.9
V 11.9
0.0pp 1.022xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
21
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 5
 11.7%Fangorn 14.1%market -2.3pp
P 11.2
F 11.7
V 13.8
2.6pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
22
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 5
 11.3%Fangorn 13.8%market -2.5pp
P 10.7
F 11.3
V 13.3
2.6pp 1.002xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
23
Agustín Ramírez MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 4
 12.1%Fangorn 14.6%market -2.5pp
P 12.3
F 12.1
V 12.1
0.2pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
24
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 15.6%market -3.1pp
P 13.3
F 12.6
V 14.0
1.5pp 1.056xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
25
Nick Castellanos SD
Lineup pending
SD vs MINDean Kremer · slot 4
 11.9%Fangorn 14.9%market -3.1pp
P 11.7
F 11.9
V 10.9
1.0pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
26
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 15.8%market -3.2pp
P 14.2
F 12.6
V 13.8
1.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
27
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 2
 12.9%Fangorn 16.3%market -3.4pp
P 14.2
F 12.9
V 13.6
1.4pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
28
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 3
 12.6%Fangorn 16.4%market -3.8pp
P 14.4
F 12.6
V 13.8
1.8pp 1.056xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
29
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN
HOU vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 5
 12.4%Fangorn 16.8%market -4.4pp
P 12.1
F 12.4
V 14.2
2.1pp 1.056xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 495 avg 3 books
30
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs MINDean Kremer · slot 3
 11.3%Fangorn 16.3%market -4.9pp
P 12.5
F 11.3
V 12.9
1.6pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
31
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 2
 12.6%Fangorn 17.5%market -5.0pp
P 13.2
F 12.6
V 12.2
1.0pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
32
José Tena WSH
IN
WSH vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 6
 11.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +4.2pp
P 9.5
F 11.9
V 8.6
3.3pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
33
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 1
 10.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.2pp
P 7.2
F 10.9
V 11.1
3.9pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
34
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1
 11.3%Fangorn 8.7%market +2.6pp
P 8.2
F 11.3
V 7.9
3.3pp 0.927xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
35
Brendan Donovan SEA
IN
SEA vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 6
 11.3%Fangorn 9.2%market +2.2pp
P 7.8
F 11.3
V 9.3
3.5pp 0.936xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 955 avg 3 books
36
Jake Mangum PIT
IN
PIT vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 1
 9.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.2pp
P 6.2
F 9.9
V 9.9
3.7pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
37
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 6
 11.3%Fangorn 10.5%market +0.8pp
P 9.0
F 11.3
V 7.7
3.6pp 0.927xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
38
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs SDCasey Mize · slot 7
 11.9%Fangorn 12.5%market -0.6pp
P 10.9
F 11.9
V 8.2
3.7pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
39
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs SDCasey Mize · slot 1
 9.3%Fangorn 11.0%market -1.7pp
P 8.7
F 9.3
V 10.8
2.1pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
40
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 5
 12.1%Fangorn 15.0%market -2.9pp
P 12.3
F 12.1
V 12.8
0.7pp 0.936xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
41
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs SDCasey Mize · slot 4
 11.9%Fangorn 15.5%market -3.6pp
P 11.8
F 11.9
V 11.6
0.3pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
42
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs TORDylan Cease · slot 6
 12.4%Fangorn 16.3%market -3.8pp
P 11.2
F 12.4
V 10.8
1.6pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
43
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs SDCasey Mize · slot 5
 11.7%Fangorn 15.8%market -4.0pp
P 9.3
F 11.7
V 12.7
3.3pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
44
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 4
 11.9%Fangorn 16.1%market -4.3pp
P 10.8
F 11.9
V 13.5
2.7pp 0.936xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
45
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 1
 3.5%Fangorn 8.0%market -4.5pp
P 4.1
F 3.5
V 6.8
3.3pp 1.022xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
46
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs MINDean Kremer · slot 1
 12.4%Fangorn 17.2%market -4.8pp
P 12.9
F 12.4
V 12.8
0.4pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
47
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 17.0%market -5.1pp
P 11.8
F 11.9
V 12.8
1.1pp 0.927xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
48
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 1
 12.4%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.9pp
P 14.0
F 12.4
V 12.2
1.8pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
49
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 4
 12.4%Fangorn 18.9%market -6.4pp
P 13.4
F 12.4
V 15.3
2.9pp 1.056xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
50
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 1
 12.1%Fangorn 18.7%market -6.6pp
P 12.7
F 12.1
V 13.7
1.6pp 0.936xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
51
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs MINDean Kremer · slot 2
 12.1%Fangorn 18.9%market -6.8pp
P 12.4
F 12.1
V 13.8
1.7pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
52
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 2
 12.4%Fangorn 19.4%market -7.0pp
P 13.6
F 12.4
V 14.9
2.5pp 1.002xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
53
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs TORDylan Cease · slot 5
 12.1%Fangorn 19.2%market -7.1pp
P 12.3
F 12.1
V 14.0
1.8pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
54
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 2
 12.1%Fangorn 20.2%market -8.1pp
P 11.9
F 12.1
V 14.6
2.7pp 1.056xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
55
Byron Buxton MIN
IN
MIN vs SDCasey Mize · slot 3
 12.4%Fangorn 21.1%market -8.6pp
P 11.5
F 12.4
V 12.4
0.9pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
56
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 22.0%market -9.4pp
P 12.4
F 12.6
V 12.2
0.3pp 1.022xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
57
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 3
 11.9%Fangorn 21.7%market -9.9pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 14.7
2.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
58
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 3
 11.3%Fangorn 25.6%market -14.4pp
P 11.7
F 11.3
V 13.6
2.3pp 0.936xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 290 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2471roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.