Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-08-22 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health
2026-09-01
Palantir
17901 props
Brier 0.117
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
17901 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12243 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.005
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Willi Castro
COL
IN
|
COL vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1 |
11.9%Valinor | 9.8%market | +1.7pp |
P
10.9
F
11.9
V
11.9
|
1.0pp | 1.070xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 885 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Jakob Marsee
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 2 |
12.1%Valinor | 10.1%market | +1.6pp |
P
12.0
F
12.1
V
12.1
|
0.1pp | 1.001xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 855 avg 3 books |
| 03 |
Tyler Stephenson
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 5 |
12.9%Valinor | 12.3%market | +0.2pp |
P
10.6
F
11.9
V
12.9
|
2.3pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 685 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Ezequiel Tovar
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4 |
13.1%Valinor | 12.5%market | +0.1pp |
P
12.1
F
11.7
V
13.1
|
1.3pp | 1.070xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Bryan Reynolds
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 5 |
13.8%Valinor | 13.6%market | -0.3pp |
P
11.2
F
11.7
V
13.8
|
2.6pp | 0.987xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 610 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
Brenton Doyle
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 5 |
12.1%Valinor | 12.0%market | -0.4pp |
P
11.3
F
11.9
V
12.1
|
0.8pp | 1.070xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 700 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Marcus Semien
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 5 |
13.3%Valinor | 13.3%market | -0.5pp |
P
10.7
F
11.3
V
13.3
|
2.6pp | 1.002xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 625 avg 3 books |
| 08 | IN | MIL vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 3 |
13.0%Valinor | 13.5%market | -0.5pp |
P
13.2
F
12.6
V
13.0
|
0.7pp | 1.045xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 640 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Luis García Jr.
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 4 |
12.4%Valinor | 13.0%market | -0.6pp |
P
12.3
F
12.1
V
12.4
|
0.3pp | 1.001xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 670 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Daylen Lile
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 3 |
11.0%Valinor | 11.1%market | -0.6pp |
P
13.2
F
11.3
V
11.0
|
2.3pp | 1.001xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 765 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Keibert Ruiz
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 5 |
9.6%Valinor | 10.0%market | -0.8pp |
P
9.4
F
11.7
V
9.6
|
2.4pp | 1.001xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 865 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Jeremy Peña
HOU
IN
|
HOU vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 1 |
11.2%Valinor | 11.6%market | -0.9pp |
P
13.3
F
12.6
V
11.2
|
2.1pp | 1.056xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 730 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Bo Bichette
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 3 |
11.1%Valinor | 11.7%market | -1.1pp |
P
13.1
F
12.6
V
11.1
|
2.0pp | 1.002xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 720 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Brice Turang
MIL
IN
|
MIL vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 1 |
8.2%Valinor | 8.9%market | -1.1pp |
P
11.0
F
12.1
V
8.2
|
3.9pp | 1.045xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 980 avg 3 books |
| 15 |
Tj Friedl
CIN
Lineup pending
|
CIN vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 2 |
12.0%Valinor | 13.3%market | -1.3pp |
P
12.8
F
12.1
V
12.0
|
0.8pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 650 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Cj Abrams
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 1 |
13.2%Valinor | 14.1%market | -1.4pp |
P
14.1
F
12.6
V
13.2
|
1.5pp | 1.001xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 585 avg 3 books |
| 17 | IN | SD vs MINDean Kremer · slot 7 |
8.5%Valinor | 9.7%market | -1.6pp |
P
9.9
F
11.3
V
8.5
|
2.8pp | 0.965xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 890 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Lawrence Butler
ATH
IN
|
ATH vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 4 |
14.0%Valinor | 15.1%market | -1.6pp |
P
13.3
F
12.6
V
14.0
|
1.5pp | 1.056xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 540 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Yandy Díaz
TB
IN
|
TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 2 |
13.3%Valinor | 14.4%market | -1.6pp |
P
13.6
F
14.1
V
13.3
|
0.8pp | 1.022xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 570 avg 3 books |
| 20 | IN | TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 3 |
11.5%Valinor | 13.3%market | -1.8pp |
P
13.5
F
14.1
V
11.5
|
2.6pp | 1.022xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 650 avg 3 books |
| 21 |
Elly De La Cruz
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 1 |
13.8%Valinor | 15.3%market | -2.1pp |
P
14.2
F
12.6
V
13.8
|
1.6pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 530 avg 3 books |
| 22 | IN | TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 5 |
11.9%Valinor | 13.6%market | -2.3pp |
P
11.8
F
11.9
V
11.9
|
0.0pp | 1.022xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 605 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
Agustín Ramírez
MIA
Lineup pending
|
MIA vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 4 |
12.1%Valinor | 14.1%market | -2.5pp |
P
12.3
F
12.1
V
12.1
|
0.2pp | 1.001xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 585 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
Jj Bleday
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 6 |
10.9%Valinor | 13.0%market | -2.5pp |
P
11.3
F
11.1
V
10.9
|
0.4pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 645 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Jose Altuve
HOU
IN
|
HOU vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 3 |
13.8%Valinor | 15.8%market | -2.6pp |
P
14.4
F
12.6
V
13.8
|
1.8pp | 1.056xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 510 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Isaac Paredes
HOU
IN
|
HOU vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 5 |
14.2%Valinor | 16.2%market | -2.6pp |
P
12.1
F
12.4
V
14.2
|
2.1pp | 1.056xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 495 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Christian Yelich
MIL
IN
|
MIL vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 2 |
13.6%Valinor | 15.7%market | -2.7pp |
P
14.2
F
12.9
V
13.6
|
1.4pp | 1.045xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 28 | IN | SD vs MINDean Kremer · slot 3 |
12.9%Valinor | 15.7%market | -3.3pp |
P
12.5
F
11.3
V
12.9
|
1.6pp | 0.965xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 29 | Lineup pending | SD vs MINDean Kremer · slot 4 |
10.9%Valinor | 14.4%market | -4.0pp |
P
11.7
F
11.9
V
10.9
|
1.0pp | 0.965xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 570 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Yainer Diaz
HOU
IN
|
HOU vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 7 |
9.9%Valinor | 14.0%market | -4.1pp |
P
12.0
F
12.1
V
9.9
|
2.3pp | 1.056xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 615 avg 3 books |
| 31 | IN | TOR vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 2 |
12.2%Valinor | 17.1%market | -5.5pp |
P
13.2
F
12.6
V
12.2
|
1.0pp | 1.000xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Cal Raleigh
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 3 |
13.6%Valinor | 25.1%market | -12.4pp |
P
11.7
F
11.3
V
13.6
|
2.3pp | 0.936xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 285 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Xavier Edwards
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 1 |
11.1%Valinor | 7.7%market | +3.1pp |
P
7.2
F
10.9
V
11.1
|
3.9pp | 1.001xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 34 |
Jake Mangum
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 1 |
9.9%Valinor | 7.7%market | +1.9pp |
P
6.2
F
9.9
V
9.9
|
3.7pp | 0.987xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
José Tena
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 6 |
8.6%Valinor | 7.7%market | +0.6pp |
P
9.5
F
11.9
V
8.6
|
3.3pp | 1.001xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Luke Keaschall
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs SDCasey Mize · slot 1 |
10.8%Valinor | 10.6%market | -0.2pp |
P
8.7
F
9.3
V
10.8
|
2.1pp | 0.965xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 810 avg 3 books |
| 37 |
Brendan Donovan
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 6 |
9.3%Valinor | 9.3%market | -0.4pp |
P
7.8
F
11.3
V
9.3
|
3.5pp | 0.936xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 930 avg 3 books |
| 38 | IN | TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 1 |
6.8%Valinor | 7.7%market | -1.2pp |
P
4.1
F
3.5
V
6.8
|
3.3pp | 1.022xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 39 |
Zach McKinstry
DET
IN
|
DET vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1 |
7.9%Valinor | 8.9%market | -1.3pp |
P
8.2
F
11.3
V
7.9
|
3.3pp | 0.927xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 985 avg 3 books |
| 40 |
Randy Arozarena
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 5 |
12.8%Valinor | 14.5%market | -2.2pp |
P
12.3
F
12.1
V
12.8
|
0.7pp | 0.936xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 565 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Josh Naylor
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 4 |
13.5%Valinor | 15.6%market | -2.7pp |
P
10.8
F
11.9
V
13.5
|
2.7pp | 0.936xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 520 avg 3 books |
| 42 |
Royce Lewis
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs SDCasey Mize · slot 5 |
12.7%Valinor | 15.2%market | -3.1pp |
P
9.3
F
11.7
V
12.7
|
3.3pp | 0.965xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 535 avg 3 books |
| 43 |
Colt Keith
DET
IN
|
DET vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 6 |
7.7%Valinor | 10.6%market | -3.3pp |
P
9.0
F
11.3
V
7.7
|
3.6pp | 0.927xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 810 avg 3 books |
| 44 |
Christian Walker
HOU
IN
|
HOU vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 4 |
15.3%Valinor | 18.4%market | -3.7pp |
P
13.4
F
12.4
V
15.3
|
2.9pp | 1.056xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 425 avg 3 books |
| 45 |
Josh Bell
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs SDCasey Mize · slot 4 |
11.6%Valinor | 15.0%market | -3.9pp |
P
11.8
F
11.9
V
11.6
|
0.3pp | 0.965xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 545 avg 3 books |
| 46 | IN | DET vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 5 |
12.8%Valinor | 16.5%market | -4.2pp |
P
11.8
F
11.9
V
12.8
|
1.1pp | 0.927xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 485 avg 3 books |
| 47 |
Trevor Larnach
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs SDCasey Mize · slot 7 |
8.2%Valinor | 12.5%market | -4.3pp |
P
10.9
F
11.9
V
8.2
|
3.7pp | 0.965xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 700 avg 3 books |
| 48 | IN | SD vs MINDean Kremer · slot 1 |
12.8%Valinor | 16.7%market | -4.5pp |
P
12.9
F
12.4
V
12.8
|
0.4pp | 0.965xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 480 avg 3 books |
| 49 |
Francisco Lindor
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 2 |
14.9%Valinor | 18.9%market | -4.7pp |
P
13.6
F
12.4
V
14.9
|
2.5pp | 1.002xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 410 avg 3 books |
| 50 |
Julio Rodríguez
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 1 |
13.7%Valinor | 18.2%market | -5.2pp |
P
12.7
F
12.1
V
13.7
|
1.6pp | 0.936xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 430 avg 3 books |
| 51 | IN | NYY vs TORDylan Cease · slot 5 |
14.0%Valinor | 18.6%market | -5.2pp |
P
12.3
F
12.1
V
14.0
|
1.8pp | 1.000xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 420 avg 3 books |
| 52 | IN | SD vs MINDean Kremer · slot 2 |
13.8%Valinor | 18.4%market | -5.2pp |
P
12.4
F
12.1
V
13.8
|
1.7pp | 0.965xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 425 avg 3 books |
| 53 |
Ben Rice
NYY
IN
|
NYY vs TORDylan Cease · slot 6 |
10.8%Valinor | 15.7%market | -5.4pp |
P
11.2
F
12.4
V
10.8
|
1.6pp | 1.000xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 54 |
Yordan Alvarez
HOU
IN
|
HOU vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 2 |
14.6%Valinor | 19.5%market | -5.6pp |
P
11.9
F
12.1
V
14.6
|
2.7pp | 1.056xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 395 avg 3 books |
| 55 |
George Springer
TOR
IN
|
TOR vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 1 |
12.2%Valinor | 17.9%market | -6.3pp |
P
14.0
F
12.4
V
12.2
|
1.8pp | 1.000xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 440 avg 3 books |
| 56 |
Eugenio Suárez
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 3 |
14.7%Valinor | 21.2%market | -7.3pp |
P
12.2
F
11.9
V
14.7
|
2.8pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 355 avg 3 books |
| 57 |
Byron Buxton
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs SDCasey Mize · slot 3 |
12.4%Valinor | 20.5%market | -8.9pp |
P
11.5
F
12.4
V
12.4
|
0.9pp | 0.965xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 370 avg 3 books |
| 58 | IN | TB vs BALBrandon Young · slot 4 |
12.2%Valinor | 21.5%market | -10.0pp |
P
12.4
F
12.6
V
12.2
|
0.3pp | 1.022xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 350 avg 3 books |
Data context
780 sample flagsStatus2471roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.