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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-10 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-10
61 matched props 28 unmatched
Newer: 2026-08-11 Older: 2026-08-09

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 61
Grouped Pitchers 11
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 28
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-10 | Raw sportsbook rows: 61 | Grouped pitcher entries: 11 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-10/strikeout_edges_2026-08-10.json
Noah Cameron headshot

Noah Cameron
KC vs LAD | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.17
Strongest Gap Under +14.35%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -151 / U +119
Over gap -20.17% / Under gap +14.35%
Under +14.35%
FanDuel
4.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -19.36% / Under gap +13.28%
Under +13.28%
BetMGM
4.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -18.34% / Under gap +11.23%
Under +11.23%
Model O 40.0% | U 60.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.7
Bryce Elder headshot

Bryce Elder
ATL vs NYM | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 5.02
Strongest Gap Over +6.93%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap +6.93% / Under gap --
Over +6.93%
FanDuel
5.5
O +200 / U --
Over gap +5.27% / Under gap --
Over +5.27%
DraftKings
4.5
O +101 / U -130
Over gap +4.17% / Under gap -10.44%
Over +4.17%
FanDuel
4.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap +3.92% / Under gap -10.06%
Over +3.92%
FanDuel
4.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap +3.92% / Under gap -10.06%
Over +3.92%
BetMGM
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap +2.70% / Under gap -9.48%
Over +2.70%
FanDuel
3.5
O -290 / U --
Over gap -4.42% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -950 / U --
Over gap -6.42% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 25.8% | U 74.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.2
Trevor Rogers headshot

Trevor Rogers
BAL vs MIN | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.64
Strongest Gap Under +6.43%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -153 / U +119
Over gap -12.56% / Under gap +6.43%
Under +6.43%
FanDuel
4.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -11.77% / Under gap +5.79%
Under +5.79%
FanDuel
4.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -11.77% / Under gap +5.79%
Under +5.79%
BetMGM
4.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -12.87% / Under gap +5.58%
Under +5.58%
FanDuel
7.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap -1.29% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap -4.17% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +142 / U --
Over gap -8.56% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -12.80% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -15.24% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 47.9% | U 52.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.3
Dean Kremer headshot

Dean Kremer
MIN vs BAL | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.94
Strongest Gap Under +6.29%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +101 / U -129
Over gap -12.37% / Under gap +6.29%
Under +6.29%
BetMGM
5.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -12.62% / Under gap +5.17%
Under +5.17%
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -10.24% / Under gap +4.29%
Under +4.29%
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -10.24% / Under gap +4.29%
Under +4.29%
FanDuel
7.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap -2.81% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap -6.51% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -12.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -560 / U --
Over gap -15.94% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -220 / U --
Over gap -16.06% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 37.4% | U 62.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.5
Hunter Dobbins headshot

Hunter Dobbins
STL vs PHI | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 3.62
Strongest Gap Over +5.91%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +5.91% / Under gap --
Over +5.91%
FanDuel
4.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap +5.37% / Under gap --
Over +5.37%
FanDuel
3.5
O +134 / U -172
Over gap +4.83% / Under gap -10.81%
Over +4.83%
FanDuel
3.5
O +134 / U -172
Over gap +4.83% / Under gap -10.81%
Over +4.83%
DraftKings
3.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap +2.93% / Under gap -8.81%
Over +2.93%
BetMGM
3.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -0.05% / Under gap -7.57%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -230 / U --
Over gap -2.51% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.7% | U 82.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 29.0
Jacob Lopez headshot

Jacob Lopez
ATH vs TB | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.81
Strongest Gap Over +5.81%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +123 / U -154
Over gap +5.81% / Under gap -11.28%
Over +5.81%
FanDuel
4.5
O +106 / U -136
Over gap +2.11% / Under gap -8.28%
Over +2.11%
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap +1.87% / Under gap -8.98%
Over +1.87%
Model O 50.6% | U 49.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.4
MacKenzie Gore headshot

MacKenzie Gore
TEX vs LAA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.01
Strongest Gap Under +5.07%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -103 / U -125
Over gap -11.37% / Under gap +5.07%
Under +5.07%
BetMGM
6.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -11.85% / Under gap +5.07%
Under +5.07%
FanDuel
6.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap -9.65% / Under gap +3.73%
Under +3.73%
Model O 39.4% | U 60.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.9
Michael Soroka headshot

Michael Soroka
AZ vs COL | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.82
Strongest Gap Over +4.08%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap +4.08% / Under gap -10.16%
Over +4.08%
DraftKings
4.5
O +105 / U -134
Over gap +2.03% / Under gap -8.07%
Over +2.03%
BetMGM
4.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -1.57% / Under gap -5.36%
No Play
Model O 50.8% | U 49.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.1
Jameson Taillon headshot

Jameson Taillon
TOR vs BOS | 5 books
Play
Adj K 4.55
Strongest Gap Over +3.03%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +500 / U --
Over gap +3.03% / Under gap --
Over +3.03%
FanDuel
5.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap +1.07% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap -0.74% / Under gap -5.11%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -240 / U --
Over gap -7.16% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -700 / U --
Over gap -7.91% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 19.7% | U 80.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.6
Sonny Gray headshot

Sonny Gray
BOS vs TOR | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.87
Strongest Gap Over +2.07%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +360 / U --
Over gap +2.07% / Under gap --
Over +2.07%
FanDuel
5.5
O +172 / U --
Over gap -0.46% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -116 / U -111
Over gap -2.10% / Under gap -4.21%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -3.96% / Under gap -2.10%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -3.96% / Under gap -2.10%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -3.96% / Under gap -2.82%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -8.93% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap -9.29% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 23.8% | U 76.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.9
Hayden Wesneski headshot

Hayden Wesneski
HOU vs SF | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.18
Strongest Gap No Play -0.16%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -7.46% / Under gap -0.16%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -185 / U +129
Over gap -7.33% / Under gap -1.25%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -3.36% / Under gap -2.63%
No Play
Model O 40.2% | U 59.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.2

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.