Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-09 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-09

61 matched props 18 unmatched

Newer: 2026-08-10 Older: 2026-08-08

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 61

Grouped Pitchers 21

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 18

Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder

2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-09 | Raw sportsbook rows: 61 | Grouped pitcher entries: 21 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-09/strikeout_edges_2026-08-09.json

Jacob Misiorowski

MIL vs MIN | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.02

Strongest Gap Under +34.34%

Best Line 8.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

8.5

O -143 / U +112

Over gap -40.36% / Under gap +34.34%

Under +34.34%

BetMGM

8.5

O -125 / U -105

Over gap -37.07% / Under gap +30.29%

Under +30.29%

FanDuel

8.5

O -120 / U -106

Over gap -36.06% / Under gap +30.05%

Under +30.05%

Model O 18.5% | U 81.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 69.7

Michael McGreevy

STL vs COL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.25

Strongest Gap Under +14.64%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -154 / U +122

Over gap -20.32% / Under gap +14.64%

Under +14.64%

BetMGM

3.5

O -150 / U +110

Over gap -19.69% / Under gap +12.07%

Under +12.07%

FanDuel

3.5

O -132 / U +104

Over gap -16.59% / Under gap +10.67%

Under +10.67%

Model O 40.3% | U 59.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 37.4

Kumar Rocker

TEX vs BAL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.38

Strongest Gap Under +14.16%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O +104 / U -133

Over gap -20.26% / Under gap +14.16%

Under +14.16%

BetMGM

5.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -20.02% / Under gap +12.91%

Under +12.91%

FanDuel

5.5

O +116 / U -148

Over gap -17.54% / Under gap +11.56%

Under +11.56%

Model O 28.8% | U 71.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.0

Cam Schlittler

NYY vs ATL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.88

Strongest Gap Under +13.63%

Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

6.5

O -145 / U +105

Over gap -21.59% / Under gap +13.63%

Under +13.63%

DraftKings

6.5

O -133 / U +103

Over gap -19.49% / Under gap +13.15%

Under +13.15%

FanDuel

6.5

O -118 / U -108

Over gap -16.54% / Under gap +10.49%

Under +10.49%

Model O 37.6% | U 62.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 64.3

Joey Cantillo

CLE vs CWS | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.05

Strongest Gap Under +11.44%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -130 / U +102

Over gap -17.46% / Under gap +11.44%

Under +11.44%

BetMGM

5.5

O -135 / U +100

Over gap -18.39% / Under gap +10.94%

Under +10.94%

DraftKings

5.5

O -123 / U -103

Over gap -16.10% / Under gap +10.20%

Under +10.20%

Model O 39.1% | U 60.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 55.4

Michael Lorenzen

COL vs STL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.87

Strongest Gap Over +9.65%

Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

3.5

O +135 / U -185

Over gap +9.65% / Under gap -17.11%

Over +9.65%

FanDuel

3.5

O +134 / U -172

Over gap +9.46% / Under gap -15.44%

Over +9.46%

DraftKings

3.5

O +124 / U -161

Over gap +7.56% / Under gap -13.89%

Over +7.56%

Model O 52.2% | U 47.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 40.7

Emerson Hancock

SEA vs TB | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.00

Strongest Gap Under +9.47%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap -16.45% / Under gap +9.47%

Under +9.47%

FanDuel

4.5

O -106 / U -120

Over gap -14.42% / Under gap +8.41%

Under +8.41%

DraftKings

4.5

O -107 / U -120

Over gap -14.65% / Under gap +8.41%

Under +8.41%

Model O 37.0% | U 63.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 26.9

Jesús Luzardo

PHI vs TOR | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.81

Strongest Gap Under +7.82%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O -103 / U -125

Over gap -14.12% / Under gap +7.82%

Under +7.82%

FanDuel

6.5

O +100 / U -128

Over gap -13.38% / Under gap +7.24%

Under +7.24%

BetMGM

6.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -9.89% / Under gap +2.60%

Under +2.60%

Model O 36.6% | U 63.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 60.3

Brady Singer

CIN vs WSH | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.10

Strongest Gap Under +7.73%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -111 / U -115

Over gap -13.83% / Under gap +7.73%

Under +7.73%

FanDuel

4.5

O +104 / U -132

Over gap -10.24% / Under gap +4.32%

Under +4.32%

BetMGM

4.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -7.73% / Under gap +0.44%

No Play

Model O 38.8% | U 61.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 48.3

Shane Bieber

TOR vs PHI | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.64

Strongest Gap Over +6.78%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -138 / U +108

Over gap +6.78% / Under gap -12.84%

Over +6.78%

DraftKings

3.5

O -146 / U +112

Over gap +5.41% / Under gap -11.93%

Over +5.41%

BetMGM

4.5

O +130 / U -175

Over gap +4.43% / Under gap -11.55%

Over +4.43%

Model O 64.8% | U 35.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 46.2

Ryan Gusto

MIA vs LAA | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.64

Strongest Gap Under +6.43%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -157 / U +119

Over gap -13.18% / Under gap +6.43%

Under +6.43%

FanDuel

4.5

O -142 / U +112

Over gap -10.77% / Under gap +4.92%

Under +4.92%

BetMGM

4.5

O -125 / U -105

Over gap -7.65% / Under gap +0.87%

No Play

Model O 47.9% | U 52.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 55.2

Grant Holmes

ATL vs NYY | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.78

Strongest Gap Under +6.16%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -186 / U +129

Over gap -14.86% / Under gap +6.16%

Under +6.16%

BetMGM

5.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -11.60% / Under gap +4.31%

Under +4.31%

FanDuel

4.5

O -148 / U +116

Over gap -9.51% / Under gap +3.53%

Under +3.53%

Model O 50.2% | U 49.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 45.5

Cade Povich

BAL vs TEX | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.49

Strongest Gap Under +4.82%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -126 / U +101

Over gap -10.32% / Under gap +4.82%

Under +4.82%

BetMGM

4.5

O -120 / U -110

Over gap -9.12% / Under gap +2.19%

Under +2.19%

FanDuel

4.5

O -113 / U -113

Over gap -7.62% / Under gap +1.52%

Under +1.52%

Model O 45.4% | U 54.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.4

Matthew Boyd

CHC vs KC | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.68

Strongest Gap Under +4.71%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -146 / U +114

Over gap -10.79% / Under gap +4.71%

Under +4.71%

DraftKings

4.5

O -147 / U +114

Over gap -10.95% / Under gap +4.71%

Under +4.71%

BetMGM

4.5

O -145 / U +105

Over gap -10.62% / Under gap +2.66%

Under +2.66%

Model O 48.6% | U 51.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 48.4

Sean Manaea

NYM vs PIT | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.95

Strongest Gap Under +4.14%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -11.25% / Under gap +4.14%

Under +4.14%

DraftKings

5.5

O +115 / U -144

Over gap -8.98% / Under gap +3.45%

Under +3.45%

FanDuel

5.5

O +126 / U -162

Over gap -6.72% / Under gap +0.64%

No Play

Model O 37.5% | U 62.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 67.5

Logan Webb

SF vs DET | 3 books

Play

Adj K 5.80

Strongest Gap Over +3.64%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap +3.64% / Under gap -10.93%

Over +3.64%

DraftKings

4.5

O -158 / U +127

Over gap +3.58% / Under gap -8.87%

Over +3.58%

FanDuel

4.5

O -162 / U +126

Over gap +2.99% / Under gap -9.07%

Over +2.99%

Model O 50.1% | U 49.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.3

Eduardo Rodriguez

AZ vs LAD | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.56

Strongest Gap Over +3.58%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -150 / U +118

Over gap +3.58% / Under gap -9.45%

Over +3.58%

BetMGM

3.5

O -160 / U +120

Over gap +2.04% / Under gap -9.03%

Over +2.04%

DraftKings

3.5

O -169 / U +128

Over gap +0.75% / Under gap -7.44%

No Play

Model O 63.6% | U 36.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.9

Randy Vásquez

SD vs HOU | 2 books

Lean

Adj K 3.31

Strongest Gap Over +2.47%

Best Line 2.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

2.5

O -146 / U +114

Over gap +2.47% / Under gap -8.55%

Over +2.47%

DraftKings

2.5

O -161 / U +123

Over gap +0.13% / Under gap -6.66%

No Play

Model O 61.8% | U 38.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 15.3

J.t. Ginn

ATH vs BOS | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 4.64

Strongest Gap Over +1.61%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +116 / U -148

Over gap +1.61% / Under gap -7.59%

Over +1.61%

BetMGM

4.5

O +105 / U -145

Over gap -0.87% / Under gap -7.09%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O +104 / U -132

Over gap -1.11% / Under gap -4.81%

No Play

Model O 47.9% | U 52.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 64.5

Davis Martin

CWS vs CLE | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.15

Strongest Gap No Play +0.56%

Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

3.5

O -130 / U -105

Over gap +0.56% / Under gap -8.30%

No Play

DraftKings

3.5

O -133 / U +104

Over gap +0.00% / Under gap -6.10%

No Play

FanDuel

3.5

O -136 / U +106

Over gap -0.55% / Under gap -5.62%

No Play

Model O 57.1% | U 42.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.8

Cristian Javier

HOU vs SD | 2 books

No Play

Adj K 3.39

Strongest Gap No Play -0.19%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O +102 / U -133

Over gap -6.39% / Under gap -0.19%

No Play

FanDuel

3.5

O +120 / U -154

Over gap -2.34% / Under gap -3.74%

No Play

Model O 43.1% | U 56.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.8

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.