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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-14 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-14
80 matched props 69 unmatched
Newer: 2026-08-15 Older: 2026-08-13

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 80
Grouped Pitchers 14
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 69
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-14 | Raw sportsbook rows: 80 | Grouped pitcher entries: 14 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-14/strikeout_edges_2026-08-14.json
Kyle Freeland headshot

Kyle Freeland
COL vs SF | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.70
Strongest Gap Under +23.25%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap -29.31% / Under gap +23.25%
Under +23.25%
BetMGM
5.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -28.85% / Under gap +21.23%
Under +21.23%
DraftKings
5.5
O +120 / U -153
Over gap -26.68% / Under gap +20.76%
Under +20.76%
Model O 18.8% | U 81.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 27.7
Gavin Williams headshot

Gavin Williams
CLE vs SD | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.60
Strongest Gap Under +18.99%
Best Line 7.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
7.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -26.10% / Under gap +18.99%
Under +18.99%
DraftKings
7.5
O +120 / U -151
Over gap -22.77% / Under gap +17.16%
Under +17.16%
FanDuel
7.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -21.96% / Under gap +16.08%
Under +16.08%
FanDuel
7.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -21.96% / Under gap +16.08%
Under +16.08%
FanDuel
8.5
O +255 / U --
Over gap -13.72% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -21.22% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -29.45% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -184 / U --
Over gap -31.06% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -32.72% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.7% | U 77.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.5
Matthew Liberatore headshot

Matthew Liberatore
STL vs CHC | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.46
Strongest Gap Under +16.87%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -23.65% / Under gap +16.87%
Under +16.87%
FanDuel
4.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -22.43% / Under gap +16.29%
Under +16.29%
FanDuel
4.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -22.43% / Under gap +16.29%
Under +16.29%
DraftKings
4.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -20.05% / Under gap +14.10%
Under +14.10%
FanDuel
6.5
O +440 / U --
Over gap -10.45% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +210 / U --
Over gap -16.71% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -850 / U --
Over gap -24.97% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -28.12% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 27.6% | U 72.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 23.1
Yoshinobu Yamamoto headshot

Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD vs MIL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.82
Strongest Gap Under +16.73%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -150 / U +115
Over gap -23.24% / Under gap +16.73%
Under +16.73%
FanDuel
6.5
O -142 / U +112
Over gap -21.92% / Under gap +16.07%
Under +16.07%
BetMGM
6.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -18.80% / Under gap +12.02%
Under +12.02%
Model O 36.8% | U 63.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.5
Landen Roupp headshot

Landen Roupp
SF vs COL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.85
Strongest Gap Under +16.39%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -24.01% / Under gap +16.39%
Under +16.39%
DraftKings
5.5
O -139 / U +106
Over gap -22.17% / Under gap +15.47%
Under +15.47%
FanDuel
5.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -20.53% / Under gap +14.51%
Under +14.51%
Model O 36.0% | U 64.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.9
Michael King headshot

Michael King
SD vs CLE | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 5.04
Strongest Gap Over +13.91%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap +13.91% / Under gap --
Over +13.91%
FanDuel
6.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap +13.25% / Under gap --
Over +13.25%
FanDuel
4.5
O +138 / U --
Over gap +12.20% / Under gap --
Over +12.20%
BetMGM
3.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap +9.42% / Under gap -16.71%
Over +9.42%
FanDuel
3.5
O -162 / U +126
Over gap +8.37% / Under gap -14.45%
Over +8.37%
FanDuel
3.5
O -162 / U +126
Over gap +8.37% / Under gap -14.45%
Over +8.37%
DraftKings
3.5
O -174 / U +130
Over gap +6.70% / Under gap -13.68%
Over +6.70%
FanDuel
2.5
O -500 / U --
Over gap +0.90% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 38.9% | U 61.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 66.1
Jackson Jobe headshot

Jackson Jobe
DET vs CWS | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.96
Strongest Gap Under +11.51%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -119 / U -109
Over gap -18.00% / Under gap +11.51%
Under +11.51%
BetMGM
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -14.88% / Under gap +8.10%
Under +8.10%
FanDuel
4.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -13.66% / Under gap +7.52%
Under +7.52%
FanDuel
4.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -13.66% / Under gap +7.52%
Under +7.52%
FanDuel
6.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap -6.02% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +200 / U --
Over gap -10.86% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -750 / U --
Over gap -15.90% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -18.79% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 36.3% | U 63.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.2
Brandon Pfaadt headshot

Brandon Pfaadt
AZ vs ATL | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 4.31
Strongest Gap Over +10.93%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap +10.93% / Under gap -18.04%
Over +10.93%
FanDuel
4.5
O +210 / U --
Over gap +10.14% / Under gap --
Over +10.14%
FanDuel
5.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap +9.52% / Under gap --
Over +9.52%
FanDuel
3.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap +7.10% / Under gap -13.20%
Over +7.10%
FanDuel
3.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap +7.10% / Under gap -13.20%
Over +7.10%
DraftKings
3.5
O -117 / U -109
Over gap +5.79% / Under gap -11.86%
Over +5.79%
FanDuel
2.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap -0.39% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 59.7% | U 40.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.1
Sandy Alcantara headshot

Sandy Alcantara
MIA vs CIN | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.18
Strongest Gap Under +8.96%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -16.41% / Under gap +8.96%
Under +8.96%
DraftKings
5.5
O -119 / U -107
Over gap -13.30% / Under gap +7.27%
Under +7.27%
FanDuel
5.5
O -113 / U -115
Over gap -12.01% / Under gap +5.47%
Under +5.47%
FanDuel
5.5
O -113 / U -115
Over gap -12.01% / Under gap +5.47%
Under +5.47%
FanDuel
7.5
O +360 / U --
Over gap -3.83% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +176 / U --
Over gap -8.27% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -11.86% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -750 / U --
Over gap -16.31% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -280 / U --
Over gap -17.36% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 41.0% | U 59.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.9
Clay Holmes headshot

Clay Holmes
CHC vs STL | 4 books
Play
Adj K 4.31
Strongest Gap Over +4.97%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +340 / U --
Over gap +4.97% / Under gap --
Over +4.97%
FanDuel
4.5
O +154 / U --
Over gap +3.03% / Under gap --
Over +3.03%
FanDuel
3.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap +0.36% / Under gap -6.44%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -440 / U --
Over gap -4.60% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 27.7% | U 72.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.7
Shane Bieber headshot

Shane Bieber
TOR vs NYY | 9 books
Play
Adj K 5.30
Strongest Gap Over +4.95%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap +4.95% / Under gap --
Over +4.95%
FanDuel
6.5
O +285 / U --
Over gap +3.63% / Under gap --
Over +3.63%
FanDuel
5.5
O +134 / U --
Over gap +0.11% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -158 / U +124
Over gap -3.18% / Under gap -2.70%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -158 / U +124
Over gap -3.18% / Under gap -2.70%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +119 / U -152
Over gap -2.81% / Under gap -3.17%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -4.77% / Under gap -2.85%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -7.79% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -7.86% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 19.2% | U 80.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.7
Kumar Rocker headshot

Kumar Rocker
TEX vs ATH | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 4.26
Strongest Gap Under +1.94%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -7.96% / Under gap +1.94%
Under +1.94%
DraftKings
4.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap -7.48% / Under gap +1.56%
Under +1.56%
BetMGM
4.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -3.91% / Under gap -3.08%
No Play
Model O 41.5% | U 58.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.1
George Kirby headshot

George Kirby
SEA vs HOU | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.32
Strongest Gap No Play +0.02%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap +0.02% / Under gap -7.13%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -170 / U +130
Over gap -4.61% / Under gap -1.83%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -167 / U +125
Over gap -4.20% / Under gap -2.79%
No Play
Model O 58.4% | U 41.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 60.0
Seth Lugo headshot

Seth Lugo
KC vs LAA | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.14
Strongest Gap No Play -2.46%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -148 / U +114
Over gap -3.95% / Under gap -2.46%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -2.60% / Under gap -4.51%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -170 / U +113
Over gap -7.23% / Under gap -2.68%
No Play
Model O 55.7% | U 44.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.4

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.