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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-15 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-15
142 matched props 70 unmatched
Newer: 2026-08-16 Older: 2026-08-14

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 142
Grouped Pitchers 20
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 70
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-15 | Raw sportsbook rows: 142 | Grouped pitcher entries: 20 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-15/strikeout_edges_2026-08-15.json
Jacob Misiorowski headshot

Jacob Misiorowski
MIL vs LAD | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 5.79
Strongest Gap Under +33.52%
Best Line 8.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
8.5
O -127 / U -101
Over gap -39.72% / Under gap +33.52%
Under +33.52%
FanDuel
8.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -39.33% / Under gap +33.27%
Under +33.27%
FanDuel
8.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -39.33% / Under gap +33.27%
Under +33.27%
BetMGM
8.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -38.32% / Under gap +31.39%
Under +31.39%
FanDuel
5.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -45.23% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O -295 / U --
Over gap -49.74% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap -50.32% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 16.2% | U 83.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.8
Emerson Hancock headshot

Emerson Hancock
SEA vs HOU | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.80
Strongest Gap Under +17.45%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -23.37% / Under gap +17.45%
Under +17.45%
FanDuel
4.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -23.37% / Under gap +17.45%
Under +17.45%
DraftKings
4.5
O -130 / U +101
Over gap -22.99% / Under gap +16.72%
Under +16.72%
BetMGM
4.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -21.02% / Under gap +14.09%
Under +14.09%
FanDuel
6.5
O +340 / U --
Over gap -11.53% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +154 / U --
Over gap -19.20% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -22.30% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap -26.85% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 33.5% | U 66.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 21.3
Sean Manaea headshot

Sean Manaea
NYM vs WSH | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 5.02
Strongest Gap Under +15.10%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -150 / U +116
Over gap -21.40% / Under gap +15.10%
Under +15.10%
BetMGM
5.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -21.40% / Under gap +13.78%
Under +13.78%
FanDuel
5.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -17.54% / Under gap +11.40%
Under +11.40%
FanDuel
5.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -17.54% / Under gap +11.40%
Under +11.40%
FanDuel
8.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap -4.09% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap -7.61% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +158 / U --
Over gap -12.96% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -13.16% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -800 / U --
Over gap -18.95% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -310 / U --
Over gap -21.69% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 38.6% | U 61.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.9
Grant Holmes headshot

Grant Holmes
ATL vs AZ | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 4.75
Strongest Gap Over +14.04%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +390 / U --
Over gap +14.04% / Under gap --
Over +14.04%
FanDuel
4.5
O +172 / U --
Over gap +12.93% / Under gap --
Over +12.93%
FanDuel
3.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap +9.43% / Under gap -15.35%
Over +9.43%
FanDuel
3.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap +9.43% / Under gap -15.35%
Over +9.43%
DraftKings
3.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap +8.35% / Under gap -14.41%
Over +8.35%
BetMGM
3.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap +6.33% / Under gap -13.95%
Over +6.33%
FanDuel
2.5
O -410 / U --
Over gap +1.23% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 34.4% | U 65.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.9
Michael McGreevy headshot

Michael McGreevy
STL vs CHC | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 2.83
Strongest Gap Under +11.76%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -17.78% / Under gap +11.76%
Under +11.76%
FanDuel
3.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -17.78% / Under gap +11.76%
Under +11.76%
DraftKings
3.5
O +118 / U -148
Over gap -14.15% / Under gap +8.60%
Under +8.60%
FanDuel
5.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap -7.81% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap -13.20% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -295 / U --
Over gap -22.49% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 31.7% | U 68.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 23.7
Kyle Bradish headshot

Kyle Bradish
BAL vs TB | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 5.56
Strongest Gap Over +11.43%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +360 / U --
Over gap +11.43% / Under gap --
Over +11.43%
FanDuel
5.5
O +176 / U --
Over gap +10.47% / Under gap --
Over +10.47%
FanDuel
4.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap +8.63% / Under gap -14.73%
Over +8.63%
FanDuel
4.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap +8.63% / Under gap -14.73%
Over +8.63%
DraftKings
4.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap +6.73% / Under gap -12.66%
Over +6.73%
BetMGM
4.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap +6.12% / Under gap -12.90%
Over +6.12%
FanDuel
3.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -0.54% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -2.87% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 33.2% | U 66.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 68.8
Matthew Boyd headshot

Matthew Boyd
CHC vs STL | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 5.24
Strongest Gap Over +9.55%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +420 / U --
Over gap +9.55% / Under gap --
Over +9.55%
FanDuel
5.5
O +196 / U --
Over gap +8.17% / Under gap --
Over +8.17%
DraftKings
4.5
O +101 / U -129
Over gap +7.45% / Under gap -13.53%
Over +7.45%
FanDuel
4.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap +5.28% / Under gap -11.33%
Over +5.28%
FanDuel
4.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap +5.28% / Under gap -11.33%
Over +5.28%
FanDuel
3.5
O -295 / U --
Over gap -2.04% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -4.19% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 28.8% | U 71.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.4
Logan Webb headshot

Logan Webb
SF vs COL | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 6.08
Strongest Gap Over +9.25%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +420 / U --
Over gap +9.25% / Under gap --
Over +9.25%
FanDuel
6.5
O +200 / U --
Over gap +7.00% / Under gap --
Over +7.00%
FanDuel
5.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap +4.02% / Under gap -10.16%
Over +4.02%
FanDuel
5.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap +4.02% / Under gap -10.16%
Over +4.02%
DraftKings
5.5
O -110 / U -116
Over gap +1.64% / Under gap -7.72%
Over +1.64%
BetMGM
5.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap +0.53% / Under gap -7.51%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -250 / U --
Over gap -3.21% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap -5.56% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -6.27% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 28.5% | U 71.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.1
Michael Lorenzen headshot

Michael Lorenzen
COL vs SF | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 3.97
Strongest Gap Over +9.11%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +265 / U --
Over gap +9.11% / Under gap --
Over +9.11%
FanDuel
3.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap +8.53% / Under gap -14.61%
Over +8.53%
FanDuel
3.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap +8.53% / Under gap -14.61%
Over +8.53%
FanDuel
5.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap +8.33% / Under gap --
Over +8.33%
DraftKings
3.5
O +117 / U -150
Over gap +7.90% / Under gap -13.98%
Over +7.90%
BetMGM
3.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap +2.76% / Under gap -9.54%
Over +2.76%
FanDuel
2.5
O -260 / U --
Over gap +0.26% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 36.5% | U 63.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.0
Brady Singer headshot

Brady Singer
CIN vs MIA | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.64
Strongest Gap Under +9.08%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +145 / U -139
Over gap -8.06% / Under gap +9.08%
Under +9.08%
BetMGM
4.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -12.87% / Under gap +5.58%
Under +5.58%
FanDuel
4.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -9.72% / Under gap +3.55%
Under +3.55%
FanDuel
4.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -9.72% / Under gap +3.55%
Under +3.55%
FanDuel
7.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap -0.41% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap -2.98% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +150 / U --
Over gap -7.24% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -11.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -15.24% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 32.8% | U 67.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.1
Jesús Luzardo headshot

Jesús Luzardo
PHI vs MIN | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.10
Strongest Gap Under +7.02%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -114 / U -110
Over gap -12.67% / Under gap +7.02%
Under +7.02%
BetMGM
6.5
O -110 / U -118
Over gap -11.78% / Under gap +5.27%
Under +5.27%
FanDuel
6.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -10.38% / Under gap +4.45%
Under +4.45%
Model O 40.6% | U 59.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 68.5
Sonny Gray headshot

Sonny Gray
BOS vs PIT | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.89
Strongest Gap Under +5.94%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -13.39% / Under gap +5.94%
Under +5.94%
FanDuel
5.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -9.26% / Under gap +3.39%
Under +3.39%
FanDuel
5.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -9.26% / Under gap +3.39%
Under +3.39%
DraftKings
5.5
O +121 / U -155
Over gap -8.64% / Under gap +2.61%
Under +2.61%
FanDuel
7.5
O +500 / U --
Over gap -1.81% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap -5.34% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -13.22% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -220 / U --
Over gap -16.84% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -620 / U --
Over gap -17.87% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 36.6% | U 63.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.5
Brad Lord headshot

Brad Lord
WSH vs NYM | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 3.62
Strongest Gap Over +5.38%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O +137 / U -172
Over gap +5.38% / Under gap -10.81%
Over +5.38%
FanDuel
3.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap +3.32% / Under gap -9.40%
Over +3.32%
FanDuel
3.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap +3.32% / Under gap -9.40%
Over +3.32%
FanDuel
2.5
O -188 / U --
Over gap +1.91% / Under gap --
Over +1.91%
FanDuel
4.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap +0.96% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap +0.13% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 47.6% | U 52.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 27.3
Cam Schlittler headshot

Cam Schlittler
NYY vs TOR | 8 books
Play
Adj K 5.74
Strongest Gap Under +4.66%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap -10.64% / Under gap +4.66%
Under +4.66%
FanDuel
6.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap -9.39% / Under gap +3.40%
Under +3.40%
FanDuel
6.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap -9.39% / Under gap +3.40%
Under +3.40%
FanDuel
8.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap -1.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap -5.96% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -16.11% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -194 / U --
Over gap -16.69% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -460 / U --
Over gap -18.09% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 35.7% | U 64.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 66.1
Ryan Gusto headshot

Ryan Gusto
MIA vs CIN | 8 books
Play
Adj K 4.46
Strongest Gap Under +4.57%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -128 / U -102
Over gap -11.21% / Under gap +4.57%
Under +4.57%
BetMGM
4.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -10.63% / Under gap +3.85%
Under +3.85%
FanDuel
4.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -8.56% / Under gap +2.46%
Under +2.46%
FanDuel
4.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -8.56% / Under gap +2.46%
Under +2.46%
FanDuel
6.5
O +360 / U --
Over gap -3.15% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +172 / U --
Over gap -6.77% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -12.30% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -14.67% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 44.9% | U 55.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.7
Hayden Wesneski headshot

Hayden Wesneski
HOU vs SEA | 8 books
Play
Adj K 4.54
Strongest Gap Over +4.42%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +560 / U --
Over gap +4.42% / Under gap --
Over +4.42%
FanDuel
5.5
O +260 / U --
Over gap +3.44% / Under gap --
Over +3.44%
FanDuel
4.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap +2.02% / Under gap -8.10%
Over +2.02%
FanDuel
4.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap +2.02% / Under gap -8.10%
Over +2.02%
DraftKings
4.5
O +115 / U -146
Over gap -0.24% / Under gap -5.62%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -1.35% / Under gap -6.27%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -210 / U --
Over gap -4.46% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -590 / U --
Over gap -6.03% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 19.6% | U 80.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.7
Eduardo Rodriguez headshot

Eduardo Rodriguez
AZ vs ATL | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.39
Strongest Gap Over +2.59%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +560 / U --
Over gap +2.59% / Under gap --
Over +2.59%
FanDuel
5.5
O +250 / U --
Over gap +0.34% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -5.03% / Under gap -2.08%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -2.12% / Under gap -3.75%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -2.12% / Under gap -3.75%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +111 / U -143
Over gap -3.64% / Under gap -2.60%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -230 / U --
Over gap -8.72% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -670 / U --
Over gap -9.19% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.7% | U 82.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.1
J.t. Ginn headshot

J.t. Ginn
ATH vs TEX | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 4.93
Strongest Gap Over +2.53%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap +2.53% / Under gap -8.67%
Over +2.53%
BetMGM
4.5
O -105 / U -130
Over gap +1.31% / Under gap -9.05%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -116 / U -112
Over gap -1.17% / Under gap -5.36%
No Play
Model O 52.5% | U 47.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.9
MacKenzie Gore headshot

MacKenzie Gore
TEX vs ATH | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 5.94
Strongest Gap Under +1.91%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O +115 / U -148
Over gap -8.10% / Under gap +1.91%
Under +1.91%
BetMGM
6.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -7.04% / Under gap +0.05%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +128 / U -164
Over gap -5.45% / Under gap -0.53%
No Play
Model O 38.4% | U 61.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.7
Joey Cantillo headshot

Joey Cantillo
CLE vs SD | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 5.16
Strongest Gap Over +1.56%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +1.56% / Under gap --
Over +1.56%
FanDuel
6.5
O +255 / U --
Over gap -0.48% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +132 / U -170
Over gap -2.36% / Under gap -3.70%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +132 / U -170
Over gap -2.36% / Under gap -3.70%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +127 / U -162
Over gap -3.31% / Under gap -2.57%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -8.13% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -180 / U --
Over gap -8.27% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -9.44% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.7% | U 82.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.6

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.