The Comp Constellation
Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 259 qualified hitters (208+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.
strong match (0.55+)
moderate (0.45 to 0.55)
weaker (< 0.45)
star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles
Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Kelly, Carson in signal, the comp in amber.
CHC · bats R · 271 PA
Ranked comps for Kelly, Carson
| # | Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Differs on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Bohm, Alec PHI · R · 401 PA | 0.80 | In-zone contactChase rateSweet-spot rate | Walk rate -1.5zAvg exit velocity +0.6zSprint speed +0.6z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 02 | Cortes, Carlos ATH · L · 245 PA | 0.80 | Chase rateIsolated powerWhiff rate | Sweet-spot rate +1.3zIn-zone contact -1.1zMax exit velocity +0.7z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 03 | Contreras, William MIL · R · 402 PA | 0.73 | In-zone contactIsolated powerFly-ball rate | Max exit velocity +1.5zWalk rate -0.8zAvg exit velocity +0.7z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 04 | Garcia, Maikel KC · R · 304 PA | 0.72 | xwOBA on contactOppo rateBat speed | Sprint speed +1.6zWhiff rate -0.9zWalk rate -0.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 05 | Grissom, Vaughn LAA · R · 214 PA | 0.72 | Bat speedIsolated powerIn-zone contact | Ground-ball rate -1.3zSweet-spot rate +1.3zWalk rate -0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 06 | Crawford, J.P. SEA · L · 339 PA | 0.71 | Isolated powerBat speedxwOBA on contact | Sweet-spot rate +1.5zChase rate -1.0zPull rate +0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 07 | Caratini, Victor MIN · L · 280 PA | 0.70 | Hard-hit rateChase rateSwing length | Sweet-spot rate +1.9zPull rate +1.1zSprint speed -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 08 | Smith, Dominic ATL · L · 253 PA | 0.69 | In-zone contactSwing lengthxwOBA on contact | Ground-ball rate -1.2zBat speed -1.1zFly-ball rate +1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 09 | Yoshida, Masataka BOS · L · 228 PA | 0.66 | Avg exit velocityGround-ball rateIsolated power | Pull rate +1.8zOppo rate -1.3zBarrel rate -1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 10 | Bregman, Alex CHC · R · 446 PA | 0.66 | Sweet-spot rateIn-zone contactMax exit velocity | Pull rate +1.8zOppo rate -1.5zGround-ball rate -1.4z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 11 | Herrera, Iván STL · R · 436 PA | 0.65 | Whiff rateStrikeout rateHard-hit rate | Swing length +2.0zMax exit velocity +1.4zPull rate +1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 12 | Horwitz, Spencer PIT · L · 314 PA | 0.64 | Swing lengthMax exit velocityChase rate | Pull rate +1.6zGround-ball rate -1.2zWhiff rate -0.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.