The Comp Constellation
Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 256 qualified hitters (340+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.
strong match (0.55+)
moderate (0.45 to 0.55)
weaker (< 0.45)
star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles
Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Horwitz, Spencer in signal, the comp in amber.
PIT · bats L · 470 PA
Ranked comps for Horwitz, Spencer
| # | Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Differs on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Kelly, Carson CHC · R · 448 PA | 0.78 | Barrel rateAvg exit velocityStrikeout rate | Pull rate -1.1zWalk rate -0.9zHard-hit rate +0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 02 | Crawford, J.P. SEA · L · 489 PA | 0.70 | Barrel rateWhiff rateMax exit velocity | Sprint speed +1.1zGround-ball rate +1.1zFly-ball rate -1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 03 | Hicks, Liam MIA · L · 589 PA | 0.68 | xwOBA on contactSweet-spot rateChase rate | In-zone contact +1.2zOppo rate -1.2zStrikeout rate -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 04 | Rumfield, TJ COL · L · 657 PA | 0.68 | Ground-ball rateSprint speedBarrel rate | Sweet-spot rate +1.7zSwing length -1.2zChase rate +0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 05 | Palacios, Richie TB · L · 420 PA | 0.65 | xwOBA on contactHard-hit rateBat speed | Fly-ball rate -1.5zSprint speed +1.4zChase rate +1.3z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 06 | Tucker, Kyle LAD · L · 673 PA | 0.62 | Strikeout rateChase rateWalk rate | Sprint speed +1.4zFly-ball rate +1.2zSweet-spot rate +1.2z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 07 | Caratini, Victor MIN · L · 400 PA | 0.60 | Swing lengthChase rateBarrel rate | Sweet-spot rate +1.5zWalk rate -1.1zFly-ball rate -1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 08 | Perdomo, Geraldo AZ · L · 695 PA | 0.57 | Isolated powerGround-ball ratexwOBA on contact | Sprint speed +1.7zSweet-spot rate +1.5zOppo rate -1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 09 | Bregman, Alex CHC · R · 721 PA | 0.57 | In-zone contactMax exit velocityFly-ball rate | Isolated power +1.9zOppo rate -1.5zSprint speed +1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 10 | Schanuel, Nolan LAA · L · 463 PA | 0.57 | Avg exit velocityWhiff rateChase rate | Oppo rate -2.0zSweet-spot rate +1.6zFly-ball rate -1.3z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 11 | Loftin, Nick KC · R · 446 PA | 0.57 | In-zone contactHard-hit rateGround-ball rate | Sprint speed +2.5zSweet-spot rate +1.4zMax exit velocity +1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 12 | Collins, Isaac KC · L · 532 PA | 0.56 | Avg exit velocityWalk rateGround-ball rate | Sprint speed +2.2zStrikeout rate +1.2zHard-hit rate +1.2z | Player Projection Swing lab |
Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.