The Comp Constellation

Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 259 qualified hitters (288+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.

strong match (0.55+) moderate (0.45 to 0.55) weaker (< 0.45) star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles

Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Kelly, Carson in signal, the comp in amber.

CHC · bats R · 381 PA

Ranked comps for Kelly, Carson

#PlayerSimilarityAgrees onDiffers onOpen
01 Horwitz, Spencer PIT · L · 400 PA 0.77 Chase rateIsolated powerSwing length Pull rate +1.2zGround-ball rate -0.9zHard-hit rate -0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
02 Vaughn, Andrew MIL · R · 315 PA 0.74 Sprint speedWalk rateBarrel rate Max exit velocity +1.2zOppo rate +1.2zAvg exit velocity +1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
03 Yoshida, Masataka BOS · L · 316 PA 0.73 In-zone contactSweet-spot rateMax exit velocity Pull rate +1.6zOppo rate -0.9zStrikeout rate -0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
04 Grissom, Vaughn LAA · R · 372 PA 0.73 Avg exit velocityIsolated powerFly-ball rate Walk rate -1.5zChase rate +1.1zSprint speed +0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
05 Bohm, Alec PHI · R · 562 PA 0.72 Barrel rateBat speedChase rate Walk rate -1.4zAvg exit velocity +1.1zOppo rate +0.9z Player Projection Swing lab
06 Smith, Dominic ATL · L · 302 PA 0.72 Swing lengthBarrel rateAvg exit velocity Sweet-spot rate +1.1zWalk rate -1.0zChase rate +1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
07 Collins, Isaac KC · L · 464 PA 0.72 xwOBA on contactAvg exit velocitySweet-spot rate Sprint speed +1.3zGround-ball rate -1.0zStrikeout rate +1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
08 Cortes, Carlos ATH · L · 337 PA 0.70 Hard-hit ratexwOBA on contactStrikeout rate In-zone contact -1.6zSweet-spot rate +1.5zFly-ball rate -0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
09 Garcia, Maikel KC · R · 319 PA 0.69 Ground-ball ratePull rateStrikeout rate Sprint speed +1.4zFly-ball rate -1.0zAvg exit velocity +0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
10 Caratini, Victor MIN · L · 362 PA 0.69 Oppo rateBat speedChase rate Sweet-spot rate +2.1zSprint speed -1.0zAvg exit velocity +0.7z Player Projection Swing lab
11 Springer, George TOR · R · 459 PA 0.68 xwOBA on contactChase rateFly-ball rate Swing length +1.3zMax exit velocity +1.1zSprint speed +1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
12 Crawford, J.P. SEA · L · 385 PA 0.66 Avg exit velocityBarrel rateBat speed Sweet-spot rate +1.7zFly-ball rate -1.1zWalk rate +1.0z Player Projection Swing lab

Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.