The Comp Constellation

Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 256 qualified hitters (340+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.

strong match (0.55+) moderate (0.45 to 0.55) weaker (< 0.45) star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles

Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Kelly, Carson in signal, the comp in amber.

CHC · bats R · 448 PA

Ranked comps for Kelly, Carson

#PlayerSimilarityAgrees onDiffers onOpen
01 Grissom, Vaughn LAA · R · 474 PA 0.79 Fly-ball rateAvg exit velocityGround-ball rate Walk rate -1.0zChase rate +1.0zSprint speed +0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
02 Horwitz, Spencer PIT · L · 470 PA 0.78 Barrel rateAvg exit velocityStrikeout rate Pull rate +1.1zWalk rate +0.9zHard-hit rate -0.9z Player Projection Swing lab
03 Cortes, Carlos ATH · L · 392 PA 0.77 Ground-ball rateStrikeout ratexwOBA on contact Sweet-spot rate +1.3zIn-zone contact -1.2zMax exit velocity +0.7z Player Projection Swing lab
04 Crawford, J.P. SEA · L · 489 PA 0.75 Barrel rateAvg exit velocityIsolated power Walk rate +1.3zChase rate -1.0zSwing length +0.9z Player Projection Swing lab
05 Caratini, Victor MIN · L · 400 PA 0.73 Bat speedGround-ball rateChase rate Sweet-spot rate +1.6zSprint speed -1.1zStrikeout rate +0.9z Player Projection Swing lab
06 Bohm, Alec PHI · R · 666 PA 0.72 In-zone contactChase rateIsolated power Avg exit velocity +1.4zPull rate -1.1zHard-hit rate +0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
07 Garcia, Maikel KC · R · 354 PA 0.71 Walk ratexwOBA on contactBat speed Sprint speed +1.4zAvg exit velocity +1.0zWhiff rate -0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
08 Vaughn, Andrew MIL · R · 363 PA 0.71 Sprint speedStrikeout rateBarrel rate Avg exit velocity +1.3zOppo rate +1.3zMax exit velocity +1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
09 Collins, Isaac KC · L · 532 PA 0.71 Avg exit velocityIn-zone contactFly-ball rate Sprint speed +1.4zStrikeout rate +1.1zWalk rate +1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
10 Rengifo, Luis MIL · L · 374 PA 0.70 Walk rateAvg exit velocityBat speed Fly-ball rate -1.4zGround-ball rate +1.3zSprint speed +1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
11 Cronenworth, Jake SD · L · 464 PA 0.70 Max exit velocityWhiff rateIn-zone contact Sprint speed +1.7zStrikeout rate +1.0zHard-hit rate -0.9z Player Projection Swing lab
12 Edman, Tommy LAD · L · 347 PA 0.66 Bat speedGround-ball ratexwOBA on contact Sprint speed +1.7zPull rate +1.2zWalk rate -1.0z Player Projection Swing lab

Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.