Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale
Probable starter
|
ATL vs KC | 6.98 | 29.7% | 33.6% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 0 |
Cole Ragans
Probable starter
|
KC vs ATL | 6.03 | 30.8% | 35.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable starter
|
LAD vs AZ | 5.48 | 27.6% | 34.3% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
TOR vs ATH | 5.43 | 23.2% | 24.2% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 0 |
Robbie Ray
Probable starter
|
SF vs NYY | 5.25 | 24.8% | 26.0% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 0 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs CLE | 5.20 | 24.5% | 30.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 0 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs SD | 5.05 | 23.2% | 23.0% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 10 | 0 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs SEA | 5.03 | 23.8% | 28.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 0 |
Yusei Kikuchi
Probable starter
|
LAA vs HOU | 4.88 | 23.7% | 19.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 0 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs SF | 4.77 | 25.7% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs DET | 4.68 | 24.6% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 0 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs COL | 4.61 | 19.5% | 21.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 0 |
Mike Burrows
Probable starter
|
HOU vs LAA | 4.48 | 24.3% | 26.6% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 10 | 0 |
Ryne Nelson
Probable starter
|
AZ vs LAD | 4.00 | 20.8% | 21.0% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Luis Severino
Probable starter
|
ATH vs TOR | 3.91 | 19.2% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 10 | 0 |
Kyle Freeland
Probable starter
|
COL vs MIA | 3.78 | 18.4% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.