Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable starter
|
TOR vs ATH | 6.40 | 28.3% | 28.8% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 0 |
Tyler Glasnow
Probable starter
|
LAD vs AZ | 5.97 | 27.6% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Kyle Bradish
Probable starter
|
BAL vs MIN | 5.93 | 28.3% | 32.7% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 0 |
Sonny Gray
Probable starter
|
BOS vs CIN | 5.76 | 26.6% | 26.3% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 0 |
Bryan Woo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs CLE | 5.52 | 24.8% | 31.7% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 10 | 0 |
Jack Flaherty
Probable starter
|
DET vs SD | 5.49 | 27.0% | 24.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs TEX | 5.42 | 23.5% | 24.8% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 0 |
Jacob deGrom
Probable starter
|
TEX vs PHI | 5.03 | 25.7% | 27.4% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 0 |
Eury Pérez
Probable starter
|
MIA vs COL | 4.92 | 25.8% | 31.9% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 0 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs BOS | 4.88 | 22.5% | 21.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 0 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs SEA | 4.81 | 24.4% | 24.8% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Chad Patrick
Probable starter
|
MIL vs CWS | 4.65 | 24.0% | 26.6% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs SF | 4.59 | 23.5% | 21.1% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 0 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs BAL | 4.50 | 22.5% | 26.2% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 0 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs LAD | 4.43 | 21.0% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 0 |
Reynaldo López
Probable starter
|
ATL vs KC | 4.35 | 21.2% | 26.3% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Joe Boyle
Probable starter
|
TB vs STL | 4.33 | 24.2% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 14.2 | 10 | 0 |
Cristian Javier
Probable starter
|
HOU vs LAA | 4.18 | 21.3% | 21.5% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
David Peterson
Probable starter
|
NYM vs PIT | 4.15 | 20.8% | 17.4% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 0 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs HOU | 4.15 | 21.9% | 30.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Mitch Keller
Probable starter
|
PIT vs NYM | 4.13 | 20.7% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 0 |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable starter
|
COL vs MIA | 4.10 | 20.5% | 21.8% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 0 |
Tyler Mahle
Probable starter
|
SF vs NYY | 3.94 | 20.3% | 20.6% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 0 |
Cade Horton
Probable starter
|
CHC vs WSH | 3.88 | 20.5% | 21.1% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs MIL | 3.82 | 21.7% | 25.3% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 0 |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable starter
|
ATH vs TOR | 3.81 | 20.5% | 19.8% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 0 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs ATL | 3.58 | 19.2% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs TB | 3.54 | 17.6% | 16.3% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Miles Mikolas
Probable starter
|
WSH vs CHC | 2.98 | 16.8% | 14.5% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Randy Vásquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs DET | 2.92 | 15.6% | 18.6% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.