Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cole Ragans
Probable starter
|
KC vs MIN | 6.52 | 29.8% | 33.4% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 6 | 1 |
Dylan Cease
Probable starter
|
TOR vs CWS | 6.03 | 28.3% | 28.8% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 0 |
Robbie Ray
Probable starter
|
SF vs NYM | 5.40 | 24.0% | 25.3% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 6 | 1 |
Ryne Nelson
Probable starter
|
AZ vs ATL | 4.58 | 20.8% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 6 | 1 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs KC | 4.52 | 22.5% | 26.2% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 0 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs TOR | 4.22 | 21.7% | 25.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 0 |
Reynaldo López
Probable starter
|
ATL vs AZ | 3.99 | 21.3% | 26.3% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
David Peterson
Probable starter
|
NYM vs SF | 3.83 | 20.8% | 17.4% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.