Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sonny Gray
Probable starter
|
BOS vs SD | 6.13 | 26.6% | 26.3% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 0 |
Dylan Cease
Probable starter
|
TOR vs CWS | 6.04 | 28.3% | 28.8% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 0 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs CIN | 6.02 | 26.6% | 24.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 5 | 1 |
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs SF | 5.70 | 28.1% | 30.6% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 5 | 1 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs STL | 5.62 | 22.7% | 21.1% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 7 | 1 |
Kyle Bradish
Probable starter
|
BAL vs PIT | 5.56 | 28.3% | 32.7% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 0 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs CHC | 5.19 | 24.4% | 24.8% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Bryan Woo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs LAA | 5.17 | 24.8% | 31.7% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 10 | 0 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs COL | 5.06 | 23.5% | 24.8% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 0 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs MIA | 4.99 | 23.5% | 21.1% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 0 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs AZ | 4.91 | 23.3% | 16.3% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 5 | 1 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs ATL | 4.83 | 21.0% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 0 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs BOS | 4.81 | 25.3% | 21.1% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 7 | 1 |
Luinder Avila
Probable starter
|
KC vs MIL | 4.70 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Bailey Ober
Probable starter
|
MIN vs TB | 4.68 | 19.6% | 20.7% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 1 |
Eury Pérez
Probable starter
|
MIA vs NYY | 4.59 | 25.8% | 31.9% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 0 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs TEX | 4.55 | 22.5% | 21.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 0 |
Mitch Keller
Probable starter
|
PIT vs BAL | 4.54 | 20.7% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 0 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs SEA | 4.53 | 21.9% | 30.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable starter
|
COL vs PHI | 4.52 | 20.5% | 21.8% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 0 |
Joe Boyle
Probable starter
|
TB vs MIN | 4.37 | 24.2% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 14.2 | 10 | 0 |
Chad Patrick
Probable starter
|
MIL vs KC | 4.32 | 24.0% | 26.6% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable starter
|
ATH vs HOU | 4.21 | 20.5% | 19.8% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 0 |
Tyler Mahle
Probable starter
|
SF vs NYM | 3.98 | 20.3% | 20.6% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 0 |
Cristian Javier
Probable starter
|
HOU vs ATH | 3.85 | 21.3% | 21.5% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Grant Taylor
Probable starter
|
CWS vs TOR | 3.48 | 22.6% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs DET | 3.21 | 17.6% | 16.3% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.