Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Garrett Crochet
Probable starter
|
BOS vs HOU | 7.43 | 30.9% | 34.7% | 22.4% | 18.3 | 6 | 1 |
Chris Sale
Probable starter
|
ATL vs ATH | 7.20 | 29.1% | 31.4% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 5 | 1 |
Tarik Skubal
Probable starter
|
DET vs AZ | 6.62 | 29.5% | 28.5% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 6 | 1 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs CLE | 6.55 | 27.5% | 31.7% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 6 | 1 |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs WSH | 6.47 | 27.6% | 30.2% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 6 | 1 |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs TB | 6.42 | 32.3% | 29.7% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 6 | 1 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
TOR vs COL | 6.33 | 28.0% | 30.0% | 22.4% | 17.6 | 5 | 1 |
Nick Pivetta
Probable starter
|
SD vs SF | 5.87 | 25.2% | 23.9% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 6 | 1 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
NYM vs STL | 5.84 | 27.9% | 33.3% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 6 | 1 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs NYY | 5.84 | 24.9% | 32.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 5 | 1 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs SEA | 5.62 | 28.4% | 31.1% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 5 | 1 |
Joe Ryan
Probable starter
|
MIN vs KC | 5.62 | 28.2% | 28.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 6 | 1 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CIN | 5.61 | 27.5% | 31.6% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 6 | 1 |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable starter
|
TEX vs BAL | 5.58 | 25.7% | 25.4% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 6 | 1 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs LAD | 5.51 | 25.0% | 28.8% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 5 | 1 |
Matthew Boyd
Probable starter
|
CHC vs LAA | 5.16 | 24.8% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 6 | 1 |
Zac Gallen
Probable starter
|
AZ vs DET | 5.14 | 20.8% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 6 | 1 |
Mike Burrows
Probable starter
|
HOU vs BOS | 5.02 | 24.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 5 | 1 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs CWS | 4.97 | 19.6% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 5 | 1 |
Yusei Kikuchi
Probable starter
|
LAA vs CHC | 4.94 | 22.2% | 17.6% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 5 | 1 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs PIT | 4.89 | 20.5% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 6 | 1 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TEX | 4.87 | 21.5% | 23.7% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 6 | 1 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs MIN | 4.51 | 20.8% | 24.4% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 0 |
Shane Smith
Probable starter
|
CWS vs MIA | 4.26 | 22.8% | 27.2% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 6 | 1 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs NYM | 4.18 | 18.2% | 19.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 6 | 1 |
Luis Severino
Probable starter
|
ATH vs ATL | 4.10 | 18.6% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 5 | 1 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs PHI | 3.83 | 21.0% | 18.2% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 6 | 1 |
Kyle Freeland
Probable starter
|
COL vs TOR | 3.74 | 17.1% | 16.3% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 5 | 1 |
Adrian Houser
Probable starter
|
SF vs SD | 3.68 | 18.4% | 20.2% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 0 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs MIL | 3.44 | 20.1% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 6 | 1 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.