Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable starter
|
PHI vs STL | 6.39 | 29.8% | 33.1% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 0 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
TOR vs BOS | 5.93 | 26.9% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 5 |
Robbie Ray
Probable starter
|
SD vs MIL | 5.58 | 25.9% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 4 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs SEA | 5.12 | 24.9% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Zebby Matthews
Probable starter
|
MIN vs BAL | 5.05 | 23.7% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs CLE | 4.95 | 18.3% | 18.0% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 10 | 4 |
Luis Castillo
Probable starter
|
CWS vs CIN | 4.94 | 22.5% | 24.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Jackson Kent
Probable starter
|
WSH vs CHC | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs MIN | 4.65 | 23.0% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Tyler Mahle
Probable starter
|
ATL vs NYM | 4.40 | 21.6% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
David Peterson
Probable starter
|
CHC vs WSH | 4.36 | 22.4% | 19.8% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Merrill Kelly
Probable starter
|
AZ vs COL | 4.36 | 19.6% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 2 |
Bryan King
Probable starter
|
HOU vs SF | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Eric Lauer
Probable starter
|
LAD vs KC | 4.27 | 22.4% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 3 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TOR | 4.25 | 20.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Jack Perkins
Probable starter
|
ATH vs TB | 4.23 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Bryce Miller
Probable starter
|
SEA vs NYY | 4.05 | 20.9% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs ATH | 3.90 | 24.1% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
MIL vs SD | 3.83 | 20.4% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
CLE vs DET | 3.77 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Rhett Lowder
Probable starter
|
CIN vs CWS | 3.73 | 18.6% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Zac Thornton
Probable starter
|
NYM vs ATL | 3.71 | 21.1% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
George Klassen
Probable starter
|
LAA vs TEX | 3.69 | 21.2% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 10 | 2 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs PHI | 3.57 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 4 |
Janson Junk
Probable starter
|
MIA vs PIT | 3.56 | 16.6% | 16.0% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Daniel Lynch IV
Probable starter
|
KC vs LAD | 3.49 | 22.4% | 21.8% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Ryan Feltner
Probable starter
|
COL vs AZ | 3.42 | 19.0% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Carmen Mlodzinski
Probable starter
|
PIT vs MIA | 3.18 | 20.8% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 13.8 | 10 | 3 |
Cal Quantrill
Probable starter
|
TEX vs LAA | 2.84 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.