Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable starter
|
TOR vs BOS | 6.94 | 31.5% | 33.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Blake Snell
Probable starter
|
LAD vs KC | 6.10 | 27.3% | 32.6% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 0 |
Hunter Brown
Probable starter
|
HOU vs SF | 6.07 | 29.8% | 28.9% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 2 |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs STL | 5.84 | 27.9% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs ATL | 5.52 | 28.7% | 32.5% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 4 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs MIA | 5.33 | 27.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Ryan Weathers
Probable starter
|
NYY vs SEA | 5.25 | 25.9% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs WSH | 4.97 | 26.4% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Nick Lodolo
Probable starter
|
CIN vs CWS | 4.79 | 24.0% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Kyle Harrison
Probable starter
|
MIL vs SD | 4.75 | 26.1% | 29.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Bryan Woo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs NYY | 4.71 | 21.0% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 18.2 | 10 | 3 |
Eury Pérez
Probable starter
|
MIA vs PIT | 4.66 | 23.3% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 10 | 3 |
Mitch Bratt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs COL | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs LAD | 4.60 | 21.1% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Drew Anderson
Probable starter
|
DET vs CLE | 4.59 | 24.1% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 1 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs DET | 4.59 | 21.6% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 6 |
Bailey Ober
Probable starter
|
MIN vs BAL | 4.34 | 19.5% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Cody Bradford
Probable starter
|
TEX vs LAA | 4.14 | 21.9% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs CIN | 4.05 | 19.3% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Patrick Sandoval
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TOR | 4.04 | 21.9% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Ryan Johnson
Probable starter
|
LAA vs TEX | 3.93 | 20.1% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Mason Barnett
Probable starter
|
ATH vs TB | 3.81 | 20.0% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Martín Pérez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs NYM | 3.48 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 3 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs MIL | 3.48 | 18.8% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 2 |
Nick Martinez
Probable starter
|
TB vs ATH | 3.47 | 17.4% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs MIN | 3.29 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs PHI | 3.27 | 14.8% | 13.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable starter
|
COL vs AZ | 3.03 | 17.5% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.