Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs NYY | 6.12 | 28.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
CHC vs WSH | 5.54 | 28.3% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Max Fried
Probable starter
|
NYY vs SEA | 5.50 | 21.3% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 18.8 | 10 | 4 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs PHI | 5.38 | 24.2% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Jacob deGrom
Probable starter
|
TEX vs LAA | 5.21 | 28.2% | 31.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs MIN | 4.93 | 23.4% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Walbert Ureña
Probable starter
|
LAA vs TEX | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Braxton Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
PIT vs MIA | 4.60 | 26.1% | 26.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 3 |
Davis Martin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs CIN | 4.36 | 20.7% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs DET | 4.36 | 23.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Roki Sasaki
Probable starter
|
LAD vs MIL | 3.80 | 20.5% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 3 |
Max Scherzer
Probable starter
|
TOR vs BOS | 3.67 | 21.7% | 20.7% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 10 | 3 |
Payton Tolle
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TOR | 3.67 | 22.8% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs CWS | 3.63 | 17.5% | 15.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Tyler Phillips
Probable starter
|
MIA vs PIT | 3.50 | 21.3% | 17.6% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Keider Montero
Probable starter
|
DET vs CLE | 3.48 | 19.5% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Shane Drohan
Probable starter
|
MIL vs LAD | 3.47 | 21.0% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 1 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs CHC | 3.42 | 18.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.