Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyle Bradish
Probable starter
|
BAL vs NYY | 6.07 | 25.1% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 5 | 5 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs SF | 5.93 | 27.5% | 32.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Ian Seymour
Probable starter
|
TB vs TOR | 5.75 | 26.8% | 27.4% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 5 | 1 |
Jacob deGrom
Probable starter
|
TEX vs WSH | 5.60 | 28.2% | 31.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs MIL | 5.28 | 23.0% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Randy Dobnak
Probable starter
|
KC vs ATH | 4.85 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 5 | 1 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs ATL | 4.77 | 22.1% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 3 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs CWS | 4.63 | 21.5% | 19.9% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 5 | 5 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs STL | 4.62 | 19.0% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 5 | 4 |
Shane Bieber
Probable starter
|
TOR vs TB | 4.59 | 23.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 0 |
Gerrit Cole
Probable starter
|
NYY vs BAL | 4.48 | 21.9% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Peter Lambert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs LAA | 4.39 | 23.8% | 23.2% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Grayson Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
LAA vs HOU | 4.32 | 21.9% | 25.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Gage Jump
Probable starter
|
ATH vs KC | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs CLE | 4.27 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Robert Gasser
Probable starter
|
MIL vs SEA | 3.79 | 20.5% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Andrew Alvarez
Probable starter
|
WSH vs TEX | 3.66 | 21.3% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs CIN | 3.16 | 15.0% | 12.8% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 5 | 6 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.