Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs STL | 6.26 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs MIL | 6.14 | 28.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs DET | 5.72 | 27.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs ATL | 5.40 | 24.2% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs MIA | 5.32 | 23.4% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs ATH | 5.14 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs SF | 4.77 | 23.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs BAL | 4.75 | 25.0% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs PHI | 4.73 | 19.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 18.6 | 10 | 4 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs NYM | 4.72 | 23.2% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Ethan Pecko
Probable starter
|
HOU vs LAA | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Robert Stock
Probable starter
|
NYM vs SD | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable starter
|
ATH vs KC | 4.32 | 22.6% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs TOR | 4.29 | 24.1% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Matt Wilkinson
Probable starter
|
SF vs CLE | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Walbert Ureña
Probable starter
|
LAA vs HOU | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs WSH | 4.23 | 20.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 2 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
MIL vs SEA | 4.22 | 20.4% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Sean Newcomb
Probable starter
|
CWS vs CHC | 4.22 | 23.5% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs BOS | 4.10 | 18.7% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Clay Holmes
Probable starter
|
CHC vs CWS | 4.08 | 18.8% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Kyle Freeland
Probable starter
|
COL vs LAD | 4.07 | 18.7% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Payton Tolle
Probable starter
|
BOS vs AZ | 4.07 | 22.8% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Aj Smith-Shawver
Probable starter
|
ATL vs MIN | 4.01 | 21.9% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Chris Bassitt
Probable starter
|
BAL vs NYY | 3.80 | 16.6% | 12.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 4 |
Jackson Jobe
Probable starter
|
DET vs PIT | 3.53 | 19.5% | 18.6% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs CIN | 3.47 | 16.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Roki Sasaki
Probable starter
|
LAD vs COL | 3.43 | 20.5% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 3 |
Max Scherzer
Probable starter
|
TOR vs TB | 3.30 | 21.7% | 20.7% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 10 | 3 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs TEX | 3.06 | 18.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.