Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs STL | 6.74 | 27.6% | 30.6% | 22.4% | 17.4 | 6 | 4 |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs ATL | 6.67 | 31.6% | 33.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 6 | 5 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs LAA | 6.49 | 28.3% | 29.9% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 6 | 5 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TOR | 6.23 | 29.4% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 6 | 7 |
Chris Sale
Probable starter
|
ATL vs MIL | 6.16 | 28.0% | 27.1% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs PIT | 5.89 | 25.0% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Logan Webb
Probable starter
|
SF vs BOS | 5.68 | 23.0% | 21.8% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 6 | 6 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
TB vs BAL | 5.55 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs COL | 5.41 | 27.2% | 30.6% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 6 | 4 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs TEX | 5.34 | 24.3% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 6 | 5 |
Sonny Gray
Probable starter
|
BOS vs SF | 5.16 | 20.9% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 6 | 5 |
Sean Manaea
Probable starter
|
NYM vs CWS | 4.96 | 25.4% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 6 | 1 |
Ryan Gusto
Probable starter
|
MIA vs WSH | 4.86 | 22.6% | 19.4% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 6 | 1 |
Matthew Boyd
Probable starter
|
CHC vs SEA | 4.84 | 25.2% | 25.9% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 6 | 3 |
Nick Lodolo
Probable starter
|
CIN vs AZ | 4.81 | 24.0% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Emerson Hancock
Probable starter
|
SEA vs CHC | 4.79 | 22.5% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 6 | 6 |
Hayden Wesneski
Probable starter
|
HOU vs ATH | 4.75 | 23.1% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 6 | 1 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TB | 4.73 | 21.4% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 4 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs CIN | 4.70 | 17.9% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 6 | 4 |
J.t. Ginn
Probable starter
|
ATH vs HOU | 4.67 | 22.9% | 21.1% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 6 | 3 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs DET | 4.40 | 20.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Connor Prielipp
Probable starter
|
MIN vs SD | 4.39 | 22.1% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 6 | 1 |
Troy Melton
Probable starter
|
DET vs KC | 4.18 | 22.0% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 6 | 1 |
Bubba Chandler
Probable starter
|
PIT vs LAD | 4.15 | 22.4% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs NYM | 4.07 | 19.3% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Tanner Gordon
Probable starter
|
COL vs CLE | 4.00 | 19.5% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Brad Lord
Probable starter
|
WSH vs MIA | 3.23 | 19.5% | 18.4% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 6 | 1 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.