Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Max Fried
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs LAA
Score 67.9 | Lineup K 6.54
|
5.80 | 6.15 | +0.35 | 81.7% | 69.0% | 55.0% | 41.3% | 29.3% |
Jack Leiter
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs ATH
Score 44.5 | Lineup K 5.34
|
5.23 | 5.25 | +0.02 | 72.8% | 57.3% | 42.1% | 28.9% | 18.7% |
Jacob Lopez
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs TEX
Score 57.4 | Lineup K 5.63
|
4.90 | 5.19 | +0.29 | 72.0% | 56.5% | 41.2% | 28.1% | 18.0% |
Luis Castillo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs SD
Score 55.5 | Lineup K 5.62
|
4.88 | 5.16 | +0.28 | 71.7% | 56.0% | 40.7% | 27.7% | 17.7% |
Kris Bubic
Probable | projected
|
KC vs DET
Score 59.8 | Lineup K 5.86
|
4.62 | 5.09 | +0.47 | 70.8% | 55.0% | 39.7% | 26.7% | 16.9% |
Shane Baz
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs CLE
Score 56.2 | Lineup K 4.93
|
4.38 | 4.60 | +0.22 | 64.2% | 47.3% | 32.1% | 20.3% | 12.0% |
Landen Roupp
Probable | projected
|
SF vs CIN
Score 47.1 | Lineup K 5.16
|
4.25 | 4.51 | +0.26 | 62.8% | 45.8% | 30.8% | 19.2% | 11.2% |
Patrick Corbin
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs MIL
Score 28.7 | Lineup K 4.56
|
3.72 | 3.95 | +0.23 | 53.6% | 36.2% | 22.3% | 12.7% | 6.8% |
Walker Buehler
Probable | projected
|
SD vs SEA
Score 21.6 | Lineup K 4.33
|
3.48 | 3.69 | +0.21 | 48.9% | 31.6% | 18.6% | 10.1% | 5.1% |
Keider Montero
Probable | projected
|
DET vs KC
Score 29.1 | Lineup K 3.60
|
3.48 | 3.46 | -0.02 | 44.5% | 27.6% | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.9% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.