Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable | projected
|
DET vs BOS
Score 80.5 | Lineup K 7.05
|
6.39 | 6.85 | +0.46 | 86.7% | 76.2% | 63.7% | 50.5% | 38.1% |
Chris Sale
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs PHI
Score 79.4 | Lineup K 6.82
|
6.17 | 6.55 | +0.38 | 84.7% | 73.3% | 60.1% | 46.6% | 34.3% |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs ATL
Score 58.6 | Lineup K 5.80
|
6.52 | 6.31 | -0.21 | 83.0% | 70.8% | 57.1% | 43.5% | 31.3% |
Paul Skenes
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs TB
Score 75.8 | Lineup K 5.87
|
6.01 | 6.08 | +0.07 | 81.1% | 68.2% | 54.0% | 40.3% | 28.5% |
Brandon Woodruff
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs MIA
Score 82.6 | Lineup K 6.58
|
5.50 | 6.03 | +0.53 | 80.7% | 67.6% | 53.3% | 39.6% | 27.9% |
Gavin Williams
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs BAL
Score 45.1 | Lineup K 5.57
|
6.21 | 6.02 | -0.19 | 80.6% | 67.5% | 53.2% | 39.5% | 27.7% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs CHC
Score 66.2 | Lineup K 5.81
|
5.78 | 5.92 | +0.14 | 79.7% | 66.3% | 51.8% | 38.1% | 26.5% |
Taj Bradley
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs CIN
Score 61.5 | Lineup K 6.01
|
5.63 | 5.87 | +0.24 | 79.2% | 65.7% | 51.1% | 37.5% | 25.9% |
George Kirby
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs TEX
Score 59.7 | Lineup K 5.60
|
5.93 | 5.86 | -0.07 | 79.2% | 65.6% | 51.0% | 37.3% | 25.8% |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs SEA
Score 50.5 | Lineup K 5.67
|
5.69 | 5.69 | +0.00 | 77.5% | 63.4% | 48.6% | 35.0% | 23.7% |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs COL
Score 76.2 | Lineup K 6.08
|
4.87 | 5.46 | +0.59 | 75.1% | 60.3% | 45.2% | 31.8% | 21.1% |
Yusei Kikuchi
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs SD
Score 47.6 | Lineup K 5.12
|
5.44 | 5.32 | -0.12 | 73.6% | 58.4% | 43.1% | 29.9% | 19.5% |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs MIL
Score 39.6 | Lineup K 5.02
|
5.33 | 5.18 | -0.15 | 71.9% | 56.3% | 41.0% | 28.0% | 17.9% |
Will Warren
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs KC
Score 40.6 | Lineup K 4.79
|
5.42 | 5.16 | -0.26 | 71.7% | 56.0% | 40.7% | 27.7% | 17.7% |
Luis Severino
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs CWS
Score 43.2 | Lineup K 4.55
|
5.15 | 4.91 | -0.24 | 68.5% | 52.2% | 36.9% | 24.3% | 15.1% |
Dean Kremer
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs CLE
Score 52.5 | Lineup K 4.65
|
4.74 | 4.77 | +0.03 | 66.6% | 50.0% | 34.8% | 22.5% | 13.7% |
Jameson Taillon
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs NYM
Score 30.8 | Lineup K 4.47
|
4.89 | 4.72 | -0.17 | 65.9% | 49.2% | 34.0% | 21.9% | 13.2% |
Zac Gallen
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs TOR
Score 42.3 | Lineup K 4.93
|
4.48 | 4.61 | +0.13 | 64.3% | 47.4% | 32.3% | 20.4% | 12.1% |
Brayan Bello
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs DET
Score 39.5 | Lineup K 5.25
|
4.16 | 4.55 | +0.39 | 63.4% | 46.4% | 31.4% | 19.7% | 11.6% |
Noah Cameron
Probable | projected
|
KC vs NYY
Score 37.0 | Lineup K 5.25
|
4.25 | 4.55 | +0.30 | 63.4% | 46.4% | 31.4% | 19.7% | 11.6% |
Andrew Abbott
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs MIN
Score 47.2 | Lineup K 4.98
|
3.96 | 4.35 | +0.39 | 60.4% | 43.1% | 28.3% | 17.2% | 9.8% |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable | projected
|
TB vs PIT
Score 52.3 | Lineup K 4.37
|
4.15 | 4.23 | +0.08 | 58.4% | 41.0% | 26.5% | 15.8% | 8.9% |
Ryan Feltner
Probable | projected
|
COL vs LAD
Score 27.8 | Lineup K 4.49
|
3.99 | 4.13 | +0.14 | 56.8% | 39.3% | 25.0% | 14.7% | 8.1% |
Cade Cavalli
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs SF
Score 40.4 | Lineup K 4.53
|
3.73 | 3.98 | +0.25 | 54.2% | 36.7% | 22.8% | 13.1% | 7.0% |
Erick Fedde
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs ATH
Score 40.7 | Lineup K 5.07
|
3.46 | 3.85 | +0.39 | 51.8% | 34.4% | 20.9% | 11.7% | 6.1% |
Max Scherzer
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs AZ
Score 42.5 | Lineup K 4.48
|
3.53 | 3.84 | +0.31 | 51.7% | 34.2% | 20.7% | 11.6% | 6.0% |
Adrian Houser
Probable | projected
|
SF vs WSH
Score 34.0 | Lineup K 4.19
|
3.67 | 3.80 | +0.13 | 50.9% | 33.5% | 20.2% | 11.2% | 5.8% |
Germán Márquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs LAA
Score 22.0 | Lineup K 4.35
|
3.23 | 3.54 | +0.31 | 46.0% | 29.0% | 16.6% | 8.8% | 4.3% |
Andre Pallante
Probable | projected
|
STL vs HOU
Score 27.1 | Lineup K 4.20
|
3.14 | 3.48 | +0.34 | 44.9% | 27.9% | 15.8% | 8.2% | 4.0% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.