Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logan Gilbert
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs MIN
Score 70.5 | Lineup K 6.10
|
6.11 | 6.27 | +0.16 | 82.7% | 70.4% | 56.5% | 42.9% | 30.8% |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs SF
Score 67.7 | Lineup K 5.89
|
6.30 | 6.24 | -0.06 | 82.4% | 70.0% | 56.1% | 42.5% | 30.5% |
Joe Ryan
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs SEA
Score 64.5 | Lineup K 6.32
|
5.79 | 6.11 | +0.32 | 81.4% | 68.6% | 54.4% | 40.7% | 28.8% |
Jacob deGrom
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs NYY
Score 64.2 | Lineup K 6.19
|
5.58 | 5.86 | +0.28 | 79.2% | 65.6% | 51.0% | 37.3% | 25.8% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs TEX
Score 67.9 | Lineup K 5.89
|
5.53 | 5.74 | +0.21 | 78.0% | 64.0% | 49.3% | 35.7% | 24.3% |
José Soriano
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs CWS
Score 52.2 | Lineup K 5.36
|
5.54 | 5.49 | -0.05 | 75.5% | 60.7% | 45.7% | 32.2% | 21.4% |
Kris Bubic
Probable | projected
|
KC vs ATH
Score 65.9 | Lineup K 6.22
|
4.62 | 5.24 | +0.62 | 72.7% | 57.2% | 41.9% | 28.8% | 18.6% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs TB
Score 57.6 | Lineup K 5.12
|
4.85 | 4.97 | +0.12 | 69.3% | 53.1% | 37.8% | 25.1% | 15.7% |
Shane Baz
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs HOU
Score 48.3 | Lineup K 5.19
|
4.77 | 4.91 | +0.14 | 68.5% | 52.2% | 36.9% | 24.3% | 15.1% |
Edward Cabrera
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs SD
Score 45.3 | Lineup K 5.15
|
4.68 | 4.83 | +0.15 | 67.4% | 51.0% | 35.7% | 23.3% | 14.2% |
Casey Mize
Probable | projected
|
DET vs ATL
Score 30.4 | Lineup K 4.47
|
4.76 | 4.59 | -0.17 | 64.0% | 47.1% | 32.0% | 20.2% | 11.9% |
Davis Martin
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs LAA
Score 38.6 | Lineup K 5.07
|
4.35 | 4.56 | +0.21 | 63.6% | 46.6% | 31.5% | 19.8% | 11.7% |
Chad Patrick
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs AZ
Score 45.0 | Lineup K 4.58
|
4.18 | 4.30 | +0.12 | 59.6% | 42.2% | 27.5% | 16.7% | 9.4% |
Tyler Mahle
Probable | projected
|
SF vs PHI
Score 43.3 | Lineup K 4.66
|
3.88 | 4.13 | +0.25 | 56.8% | 39.3% | 25.0% | 14.7% | 8.1% |
Clay Holmes
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs WSH
Score 31.1 | Lineup K 4.27
|
4.06 | 4.11 | +0.05 | 56.4% | 39.0% | 24.7% | 14.5% | 7.9% |
Zack Littell
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs NYM
Score 32.4 | Lineup K 4.40
|
3.70 | 3.93 | +0.23 | 53.3% | 35.8% | 22.0% | 12.5% | 6.7% |
Martín Pérez
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs DET
Score 23.1 | Lineup K 4.37
|
3.48 | 3.71 | +0.23 | 49.3% | 31.9% | 18.9% | 10.3% | 5.2% |
Nick Martinez
Probable | projected
|
TB vs CLE
Score 44.0 | Lineup K 4.04
|
3.46 | 3.65 | +0.19 | 48.1% | 30.9% | 18.1% | 9.8% | 4.9% |
Walker Buehler
Probable | projected
|
SD vs CHC
Score 22.0 | Lineup K 3.91
|
3.48 | 3.55 | +0.07 | 46.2% | 29.1% | 16.7% | 8.8% | 4.3% |
Janson Junk
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs LAD
Score 18.6 | Lineup K 3.39
|
3.20 | 3.18 | -0.02 | 38.9% | 22.8% | 12.1% | 5.9% | 2.7% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.