Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable | projected
|
DET vs BAL
Score 81.7 | Lineup K 7.18
|
6.53 | 6.93 | +0.40 | 87.2% | 77.0% | 64.6% | 51.5% | 39.1% |
Chris Sale
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs NYM
Score 72.8 | Lineup K 6.43
|
6.14 | 6.36 | +0.22 | 83.4% | 71.4% | 57.7% | 44.1% | 32.0% |
Joe Ryan
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs KC
Score 65.9 | Lineup K 5.64
|
6.04 | 5.98 | -0.06 | 80.2% | 67.0% | 52.7% | 39.0% | 27.3% |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs MIA
Score 70.0 | Lineup K 5.98
|
5.93 | 5.92 | -0.01 | 79.7% | 66.3% | 51.8% | 38.1% | 26.5% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs CWS
Score 66.8 | Lineup K 5.51
|
5.61 | 5.65 | +0.04 | 77.1% | 62.9% | 48.0% | 34.4% | 23.3% |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs TB
Score 60.2 | Lineup K 5.29
|
5.77 | 5.65 | -0.12 | 77.1% | 62.9% | 48.0% | 34.4% | 23.3% |
Logan Webb
Probable | projected
|
SF vs MIL
Score 52.4 | Lineup K 5.47
|
5.69 | 5.62 | -0.07 | 76.8% | 62.5% | 47.6% | 34.0% | 22.9% |
Joey Cantillo
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs CIN
Score 57.7 | Lineup K 5.66
|
4.97 | 5.24 | +0.27 | 72.7% | 57.2% | 41.9% | 28.8% | 18.6% |
Sean Manaea
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs ATL
Score 52.1 | Lineup K 5.51
|
4.84 | 5.08 | +0.24 | 70.7% | 54.8% | 39.5% | 26.6% | 16.8% |
Matthew Boyd
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs STL
Score 55.1 | Lineup K 5.04
|
4.94 | 5.00 | +0.06 | 69.7% | 53.6% | 38.3% | 25.5% | 16.0% |
Jacob Lopez
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs BOS
Score 55.2 | Lineup K 5.57
|
4.59 | 4.95 | +0.36 | 69.0% | 52.8% | 37.5% | 24.9% | 15.5% |
Trevor Rogers
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs DET
Score 42.4 | Lineup K 5.19
|
4.34 | 4.61 | +0.27 | 64.3% | 47.4% | 32.3% | 20.4% | 12.1% |
Ryan Gusto
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs PHI
Score 44.9 | Lineup K 5.15
|
4.36 | 4.53 | +0.17 | 63.1% | 46.1% | 31.1% | 19.4% | 11.4% |
Brady Singer
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs CLE
Score 50.9 | Lineup K 4.97
|
4.28 | 4.52 | +0.24 | 63.0% | 45.9% | 30.9% | 19.3% | 11.3% |
Hayden Wesneski
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs LAA
Score 50.2 | Lineup K 5.25
|
4.09 | 4.50 | +0.41 | 62.7% | 45.6% | 30.6% | 19.1% | 11.1% |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs PIT
Score 48.7 | Lineup K 5.35
|
4.02 | 4.48 | +0.46 | 62.4% | 45.3% | 30.3% | 18.8% | 10.9% |
Eric Lauer
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs SEA
Score 35.8 | Lineup K 4.82
|
4.27 | 4.41 | +0.14 | 61.3% | 44.1% | 29.2% | 18.0% | 10.3% |
Davis Martin
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs NYY
Score 25.4 | Lineup K 4.70
|
4.36 | 4.39 | +0.03 | 61.0% | 43.8% | 28.9% | 17.7% | 10.2% |
Dustin May
Probable | projected
|
STL vs CHC
Score 31.6 | Lineup K 4.68
|
4.20 | 4.30 | +0.10 | 59.6% | 42.2% | 27.5% | 16.7% | 9.4% |
Aj Smith-Shawver
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs NYM
Score 20.1 | Lineup K 4.24
|
3.99 | 3.98 | -0.01 | 54.2% | 36.7% | 22.8% | 13.1% | 7.0% |
Zack Littell
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs TOR
Score 35.7 | Lineup K 4.07
|
3.96 | 3.95 | -0.01 | 53.6% | 36.2% | 22.3% | 12.7% | 6.8% |
Emerson Hancock
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs LAD
Score 17.0 | Lineup K 3.92
|
3.90 | 3.80 | -0.10 | 50.9% | 33.5% | 20.2% | 11.2% | 5.8% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.