Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs NYY
Score 74.8 | Lineup K 7.09
|
6.14 | 6.53 | +0.39 | 84.6% | 73.1% | 59.9% | 46.4% | 34.1% |
Jacob deGrom
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs BAL
Score 66.2 | Lineup K 6.05
|
5.58 | 5.82 | +0.24 | 78.8% | 65.1% | 50.4% | 36.8% | 25.3% |
Kyle Bradish
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs TEX
Score 66.5 | Lineup K 5.89
|
5.48 | 5.70 | +0.22 | 77.6% | 63.5% | 48.7% | 35.1% | 23.9% |
George Kirby
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs TB
Score 61.7 | Lineup K 5.12
|
5.63 | 5.50 | -0.13 | 75.6% | 60.9% | 45.8% | 32.4% | 21.5% |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs LAA
Score 54.2 | Lineup K 6.18
|
5.08 | 5.48 | +0.40 | 75.3% | 60.6% | 45.5% | 32.1% | 21.3% |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs AZ
Score 59.3 | Lineup K 5.04
|
5.49 | 5.37 | -0.12 | 74.1% | 59.1% | 43.9% | 30.6% | 20.0% |
Gavin Williams
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs CWS
Score 52.7 | Lineup K 5.01
|
5.52 | 5.35 | -0.17 | 73.9% | 58.8% | 43.6% | 30.3% | 19.8% |
Aaron Nola
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs TOR
Score 52.3 | Lineup K 5.40
|
5.30 | 5.34 | +0.04 | 73.8% | 58.6% | 43.5% | 30.1% | 19.7% |
Michael King
Probable | projected
|
SD vs HOU
Score 60.9 | Lineup K 5.50
|
5.08 | 5.27 | +0.19 | 73.0% | 57.6% | 42.4% | 29.2% | 18.9% |
Taj Bradley
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs MIL
Score 49.1 | Lineup K 5.16
|
5.01 | 5.06 | +0.05 | 70.5% | 54.5% | 39.2% | 26.3% | 16.6% |
Seth Lugo
Probable | projected
|
KC vs CHC
Score 41.1 | Lineup K 4.89
|
5.11 | 5.00 | -0.11 | 69.7% | 53.6% | 38.3% | 25.5% | 16.0% |
Landen Roupp
Probable | projected
|
SF vs DET
Score 37.4 | Lineup K 4.67
|
4.64 | 4.60 | -0.04 | 64.2% | 47.3% | 32.1% | 20.3% | 12.0% |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs LAD
Score 33.4 | Lineup K 4.86
|
4.46 | 4.54 | +0.08 | 63.3% | 46.3% | 31.2% | 19.6% | 11.5% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | projected
|
STL vs COL
Score 40.9 | Lineup K 4.56
|
3.83 | 4.06 | +0.23 | 55.5% | 38.1% | 23.9% | 13.9% | 7.6% |
Clay Holmes
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs KC
Score 26.9 | Lineup K 4.19
|
3.68 | 3.79 | +0.11 | 50.7% | 33.4% | 20.0% | 11.1% | 5.7% |
Kyle Freeland
Probable | projected
|
COL vs STL
Score 28.3 | Lineup K 4.19
|
3.67 | 3.79 | +0.12 | 50.7% | 33.4% | 20.0% | 11.1% | 5.7% |
Jackson Jobe
Probable | projected
|
DET vs SF
Score 29.5 | Lineup K 4.36
|
3.52 | 3.75 | +0.23 | 50.0% | 32.6% | 19.5% | 10.7% | 5.5% |
Max Scherzer
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs PHI
Score 54.1 | Lineup K 5.38
|
3.29 | 3.70 | +0.41 | 49.1% | 31.8% | 18.8% | 10.2% | 5.2% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.