Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-07-27 beta
SEA @ TEX, simulated 8,000 times.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Simulation verdict
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers
Kirby, George vs Rocker, Kumar · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
SEA 42.2%TEX 57.8%
4.24 – 4.72mean score
8.95mean total
51%NRFI
9.3%extra innings
5.12 / 4.98starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
SEA (gold) vs TEX (cyan)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
SEA per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Young, Cole | 4.811 | 1.115 | 0.15 | 1.808 | 0.372 | 0.901 | 0.448 |
| Rodríguez, Julio | 4.691 | 1.099 | 0.156 | 1.816 | 0.426 | 0.962 | 0.502 |
| Canzone, Dominic | 4.575 | 1.07 | 0.192 | 1.932 | 0.462 | 0.95 | 0.604 |
| Arozarena, Randy | 4.465 | 1.098 | 0.114 | 1.694 | 0.491 | 0.968 | 0.504 |
| Naylor, Josh | 4.363 | 0.994 | 0.077 | 1.381 | 0.387 | 0.619 | 0.425 |
| Raley, Luke | 4.258 | 0.967 | 0.186 | 1.775 | 0.297 | 1.224 | 0.574 |
| Garver, Mitch | 4.149 | 0.762 | 0.115 | 1.257 | 0.522 | 1.22 | 0.394 |
| Crawford, J.P. | 4.04 | 0.759 | 0.103 | 1.217 | 0.543 | 0.842 | 0.371 |
| Emerson, Colt | 3.93 | 0.787 | 0.129 | 1.345 | 0.37 | 1.119 | 0.413 |
Projected batting lines
TEX per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pederson, Joc | 4.702 | 1.167 | 0.187 | 2.036 | 0.472 | 1.138 | 0.562 |
| Langford, Wyatt | 4.581 | 1.325 | 0.174 | 2.223 | 0.343 | 0.968 | 0.612 |
| Duran, Ezequiel | 4.465 | 1.229 | 0.113 | 1.889 | 0.337 | 1.062 | 0.568 |
| Nimmo, Brandon | 4.355 | 1.191 | 0.1 | 1.776 | 0.369 | 0.945 | 0.591 |
| Carter, Evan | 4.256 | 0.859 | 0.096 | 1.327 | 0.496 | 1.011 | 0.471 |
| Burger, Jake | 4.155 | 1.047 | 0.149 | 1.744 | 0.333 | 1.054 | 0.592 |
| Lopez, Nicky | 4.053 | 1.199 | 0.06 | 1.56 | 0.264 | 0.671 | 0.44 |
| Smith, Josh | 3.941 | 0.923 | 0.059 | 1.243 | 0.392 | 0.828 | 0.37 |
| Díaz, Elias | 3.828 | 1.028 | 0.114 | 1.576 | 0.216 | 0.791 | 0.51 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Young, Cole vs Rocker, Kumar: BB
Rodríguez, Julio vs Rocker, Kumar: OUT AIR
Canzone, Dominic vs Rocker, Kumar: 2B
Arozarena, Randy vs Rocker, Kumar: 2B +2 runs (2-0)
Naylor, Josh vs Rocker, Kumar: OUT AIR
Raley, Luke vs Rocker, Kumar: BB
Garver, Mitch vs Rocker, Kumar: 1B
Crawford, J.P. vs Rocker, Kumar: 1B +1 run (3-0)
Emerson, Colt vs Rocker, Kumar: K
— Bottom 1 —
Pederson, Joc vs Kirby, George: BB
Langford, Wyatt vs Kirby, George: K
Duran, Ezequiel vs Kirby, George: 1B
Nimmo, Brandon vs Kirby, George: OUT AIR
Carter, Evan vs Kirby, George: OUT GB
— Top 2 —
Young, Cole vs Rocker, Kumar: OUT AIR
Rodríguez, Julio vs Rocker, Kumar: K
Canzone, Dominic vs Rocker, Kumar: K
— Bottom 2 —
Burger, Jake vs Kirby, George: K
Lopez, Nicky vs Kirby, George: 1B
Smith, Josh vs Kirby, George: K
Díaz, Elias vs Kirby, George: K
— Top 3 —
Arozarena, Randy vs Rocker, Kumar: OUT AIR
Naylor, Josh vs Rocker, Kumar: 1B
Raley, Luke vs Rocker, Kumar: OUT GB
Garver, Mitch vs Rocker, Kumar: OUT GB
— Bottom 3 —
Pederson, Joc vs Kirby, George: OUT AIR
Langford, Wyatt vs Kirby, George: OUT GB
Duran, Ezequiel vs Kirby, George: OUT AIR
— Top 4 —
Crawford, J.P. vs Rocker, Kumar: OUT GB
Emerson, Colt vs Rocker, Kumar: OUT AIR
Young, Cole vs Rocker, Kumar: OUT AIR
— Bottom 4 —
Nimmo, Brandon vs Kirby, George: BB
Carter, Evan vs Kirby, George: BB
Burger, Jake vs Kirby, George: OUT AIR
Lopez, Nicky vs Kirby, George: 1B +1 run (3-1)
Smith, Josh vs Kirby, George: K
Díaz, Elias vs Kirby, George: 1B +1 run (3-2)
Pederson, Joc vs Kirby, George: 1B
Langford, Wyatt vs Kirby, George: OUT AIR
— Top 5 —
Rodríguez, Julio vs Rocker, Kumar: 1B
Canzone, Dominic vs Rocker, Kumar: HR +2 runs (5-2)
Arozarena, Randy vs Gray, Peyton: K
Naylor, Josh vs Gray, Peyton: OUT AIR
Raley, Luke vs Gray, Peyton: 1B
Garver, Mitch vs Gray, Peyton: K
— Bottom 5 —
Duran, Ezequiel vs Kirby, George: OUT GB
Nimmo, Brandon vs Kirby, George: 1B
Carter, Evan vs Kirby, George: OUT GB
Burger, Jake vs Kirby, George: 1B
Lopez, Nicky vs Kirby, George: 1B +1 run (5-3)
Smith, Josh vs Kirby, George: K
— Top 6 —
Crawford, J.P. vs Junis, Jakob: 1B
Emerson, Colt vs Junis, Jakob: OUT AIR
Young, Cole vs Junis, Jakob: 1B
Rodríguez, Julio vs Junis, Jakob: 1B
Canzone, Dominic vs Junis, Jakob: OUT GB
— Bottom 6 —
Díaz, Elias vs Rucker, Michael: OUT AIR
Pederson, Joc vs Rucker, Michael: BB
Langford, Wyatt vs Rucker, Michael: 2B
Duran, Ezequiel vs Rucker, Michael: OUT AIR
Nimmo, Brandon vs Ferrer, José A.: OUT GB
— Top 7 —
Arozarena, Randy vs Winn, Cole: OUT AIR
Naylor, Josh vs Winn, Cole: BB
Raley, Luke vs Winn, Cole: K
Garver, Mitch vs Winn, Cole: OUT AIR
— Bottom 7 —
Carter, Evan vs Ferrer, José A.: OUT AIR
Burger, Jake vs Ferrer, José A.: OUT AIR
Lopez, Nicky vs Ferrer, José A.: K
— Top 8 —
Crawford, J.P. vs Latz, Jacob: HR +1 run (6-3)
Emerson, Colt vs Latz, Jacob: K
Young, Cole vs Latz, Jacob: OUT AIR
Rodríguez, Julio vs Latz, Jacob: 1B
Canzone, Dominic vs Martin, Chris: OUT AIR
— Bottom 8 —
Smith, Josh vs Ferrer, José A.: 1B
Díaz, Elias vs Bazardo, Eduard: K
Pederson, Joc vs Bazardo, Eduard: OUT GB
Langford, Wyatt vs Bazardo, Eduard: OUT AIR
— Top 9 —
Arozarena, Randy vs Martin, Chris: K
Naylor, Josh vs Martin, Chris: K
Raley, Luke vs Martin, Chris: K
— Bottom 9 —
Duran, Ezequiel vs Bazardo, Eduard: K
Nimmo, Brandon vs Muñoz, Andrés: 2B
Carter, Evan vs Muñoz, Andrés: OUT AIR
Burger, Jake vs Muñoz, Andrés: OUT AIR