Section III · Betting · 2026-07-27

AZ at PIT

Kelly, Merrill vs Keller, Mitch · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read

The question

Does Mithrandir lean AZ or PIT?

Mithrandir leans PIT over AZ.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

62.1% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs AZ 4.6 · PIT 4.5 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 9.1 · Market 9.0 priced gap unavailable

Run line AZ -1.5 · PIT 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 47.5% · YRFI 52.5% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 26 Available in 26 player rows

Fangorn 4 Available in 4 player rows

Valinor 4 Available in 4 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

26 matched rows

Home runs · PIT vs AZ Ryan O'Hearn Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P13.6% F15.5% V13.3%

Model 19.6% Market 13.0% Model-market gap +6.6 pts

Open board

Home runs · PIT vs AZ Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P13.3% F12.2% V14.5%

Model 19.9% Market 13.5% Model-market gap +6.5 pts

Open board

Home runs · AZ vs PIT Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P13.2% F14.9% V12.9%

Model 14.0% Market 9.3% Model-market gap +4.7 pts

Open board

Home runs · AZ vs PIT Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P16.1% F15.5% V16.7%

Model 20.7% Market 17.5% Model-market gap +3.2 pts

Open board

Total bases · AZ vs PIT Ketel Marte Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P32.8% F-- V--

Model 32.8% Market 16.5% Provisional model gap +16.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · AZ vs PIT Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P34.1% F-- V--

Model 34.1% Market 18.3% Provisional model gap +15.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · AZ vs PIT Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P34.3% F-- V--

Model 34.3% Market 18.7% Provisional model gap +15.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · PIT vs AZ Ryan O'Hearn Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P37.7% F-- V--

Model 37.7% Market 23.5% Provisional model gap +14.2 pts

Open board

Total bases · PIT vs AZ Jake Mangum Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P38.5% F-- V--

Model 38.5% Market 24.7% Provisional model gap +13.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · PIT vs AZ Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P38.5% F-- V--

Model 38.5% Market 24.7% Provisional model gap +13.8 pts

Open board

Hits · PIT vs AZ Brandon Lowe Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P81.5% F-- V--

Model 81.5% Market 67.7% Provisional model gap +13.8 pts

Open board

Hits · AZ vs PIT Gabriel Moreno Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P84.4% F-- V--

Model 84.4% Market 70.6% Provisional model gap +13.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · AZ vs PIT Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P38.4% F-- V--

Model 38.4% Market 24.7% Provisional model gap +13.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · PIT vs AZ Marcell Ozuna Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P39.0% F-- V--

Model 39.0% Market 25.3% Provisional model gap +13.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · PIT vs AZ Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P40.2% F-- V--

Model 40.2% Market 27.0% Provisional model gap +13.2 pts

Open board

Total bases · AZ vs PIT Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P42.3% F-- V--

Model 42.3% Market 29.9% Provisional model gap +12.5 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.