Section III · Betting · 2026-09-08

TB at ATL

Peralta, Freddy vs Smith-Shawver, AJ · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read

The question

Does Mithrandir lean TB or ATL?

Mithrandir leans TB over ATL.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

50.6% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs TB 4.3 · ATL 4.7 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 9.0 · Market 9.0 priced gap unavailable

Run line TB 1.5 · ATL -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 48.1% · YRFI 51.9% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 32 Available in 32 player rows

Fangorn 5 Available in 5 player rows

Valinor 5 Available in 5 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

32 matched rows

Total bases · TB vs ATL Yandy Díaz Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P34.3% F-- V--

Model 34.3% Market 16.7% Model-market gap +17.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATL vs TB Ronald Acuña Jr. Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P35.0% F-- V--

Model 35.0% Market 18.0% Model-market gap +17.0 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATL vs TB Matt Olson Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P35.4% F-- V--

Model 35.4% Market 18.7% Model-market gap +16.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATL vs TB Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P36.8% F-- V--

Model 36.8% Market 20.8% Model-market gap +16.0 pts

Open board

Total bases · TB vs ATL Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P36.7% F-- V--

Model 36.7% Market 20.8% Model-market gap +15.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATL vs TB Austin Riley Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P37.0% F-- V--

Model 37.0% Market 21.3% Model-market gap +15.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · TB vs ATL Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P37.4% F-- V--

Model 37.4% Market 21.7% Model-market gap +15.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATL vs TB Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P37.3% F-- V--

Model 37.3% Market 21.7% Model-market gap +15.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATL vs TB Michael Harris II Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P38.6% F-- V--

Model 38.6% Market 23.8% Model-market gap +14.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · TB vs ATL Junior Caminero Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P39.2% F-- V--

Model 39.2% Market 24.7% Model-market gap +14.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATL vs TB Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P42.1% F-- V--

Model 42.1% Market 29.4% Model-market gap +12.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · TB vs ATL Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P43.2% F-- V--

Model 43.2% Market 30.8% Model-market gap +12.4 pts

Open board

Pitcher outs · ATL vs TB Aj Smith-Shawver Under 14.5 · Healthy / active roster

P52.5% F-- V--

Model 52.5% Market 41.1% Model-market gap +11.5 pts

Open board

Home runs · ATL vs TB Ozzie Albies Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P12.0% F12.0% V14.5%

Model 19.4% Market 13.5% Model-market gap +6.0 pts

Open board

Home runs · TB vs ATL Yandy Díaz Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P14.1% F15.3% V12.7%

Model 19.4% Market 14.2% Model-market gap +5.1 pts

Open board

Home runs · TB vs ATL Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P14.0% F15.3% V11.1%

Model 17.8% Market 12.7% Model-market gap +5.0 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.