Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-05-28 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
54
Matched
162
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2026-05-28 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Roman Anthony BOS
IL10
BOS vs ATLChris Sale · slot 2
 13.2%Palantir 11.1%market +2.0pp
P 13.2
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.1pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
02
Wyatt Langford TEX
IL10
TEX vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 1
 15.7%Palantir 14.4%market +1.3pp
P 15.7
F 17.9
V 13.5
2.2pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
03
Ryan O'Hearn PIT
IL10
PIT vs CHCColin Rea · slot 3
 13.6%Palantir 13.0%market +0.6pp
P 13.6
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.3pp 0.923xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
04
Jarren Duran BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs ATLChris Sale · slot 1
 11.4%Palantir 10.9%market +0.5pp
P 11.4
F 13.4
V 10.0
2.0pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
05
Jeremy Peña HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 1
 11.4%Palantir 11.2%market +0.3pp
P 11.4
F 17.2
V 12.9
5.8pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
06
Carlos Correa HOU
IL10
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 6
 11.2%Palantir 11.6%market -0.3pp
P 11.2
F 15.7
V 11.8
4.5pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 765 avg 3 books
07
Evan Carter TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 6
 11.1%Palantir 11.4%market -0.3pp
P 11.1
F 17.9
V 13.4
6.8pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 775 avg 3 books
08
Jesús Sánchez TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs BALChris Bassitt · slot 5
 12.4%Palantir 12.8%market -0.4pp
P 12.4
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.8pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
09
Joc Pederson TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 5
 14.1%Palantir 14.8%market -0.7pp
P 14.1
F 15.7
V 11.8
1.6pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
10
Spencer Horwitz PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CHCColin Rea · slot 6
 11.1%Palantir 11.8%market -0.7pp
P 11.1
F 15.7
V 11.8
4.6pp 0.923xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
11
Adley Rutschman BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 5
 11.0%Palantir 12.4%market -1.4pp
P 11.0
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.2pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
12
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 4
 11.8%Palantir 13.5%market -1.7pp
P 11.8
F 15.7
V 11.8
3.9pp 0.863xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
13
Brandon Nimmo TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 3
 14.2%Palantir 16.4%market -2.1pp
P 14.2
F 17.9
V 13.5
3.7pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
14
Bryan Reynolds PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CHCColin Rea · slot 5
 11.6%Palantir 14.1%market -2.5pp
P 11.6
F 14.2
V 10.7
2.6pp 0.923xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
15
Ryan Mountcastle BAL
IL60
BAL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 7
 6.6%Palantir 10.9%market -4.3pp
P 6.6
F 15.5
V 11.6
8.9pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 820 avg 3 books
16
Jose Altuve HOU
IL10
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 3
 10.7%Palantir 15.8%market -5.0pp
P 10.7
F 17.2
V 12.9
6.5pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
17
Nathan Lukes TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs BALChris Bassitt · slot 6
 3.8%Palantir 9.6%market -5.7pp
P 3.8
F 17.9
V 13.4
14.1pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 945 avg 3 books
18
Dansby Swanson CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 6
 11.9%Palantir 13.6%market -1.7pp
P 11.9
F 14.2
V 10.7
2.3pp 0.923xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
19
Trevor Larnach MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 7
 10.1%Palantir 12.5%market -2.4pp
P 10.1
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.1pp 0.863xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
20
Ian Happ CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 4
 12.4%Palantir 15.5%market -3.1pp
P 12.4
F 14.2
V 10.7
1.9pp 0.923xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
21
Brandon Lowe PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CHCColin Rea · slot 4
 16.6%Palantir 20.4%market -3.9pp
P 16.6
F 17.2
V 12.9
0.7pp 0.923xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
22
Michael Busch CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 3
 14.8%Palantir 18.7%market -3.9pp
P 14.8
F 17.2
V 12.9
2.4pp 0.923xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
23
Taylor Ward BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 4
 14.8%Palantir 18.7%market -3.9pp
P 14.8
F 17.9
V 13.5
3.1pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
24
Gunnar Henderson BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 1
 13.1%Palantir 17.4%market -4.3pp
P 13.1
F 13.6
V 10.2
0.4pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
25
Willson Contreras BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs ATLChris Sale · slot 3
 12.2%Palantir 16.5%market -4.3pp
P 12.2
F 15.5
V 11.6
3.3pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 505 avg 3 books
26
Zach Neto LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 1
 12.7%Palantir 17.1%market -4.4pp
P 12.7
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.5pp 0.877xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
27
George Springer TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs BALChris Bassitt · slot 1
 13.3%Palantir 17.7%market -4.4pp
P 13.3
F 15.7
V 11.8
2.5pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
28
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs BALChris Bassitt · slot 2
 12.4%Palantir 17.0%market -4.6pp
P 12.4
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.8pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
29
Isaac Paredes HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 5
 11.2%Palantir 16.0%market -4.8pp
P 11.2
F 15.5
V 11.6
4.3pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
30
Tyler O'Neill BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 3
 14.2%Palantir 19.1%market -4.8pp
P 14.2
F 17.2
V 12.9
3.0pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
31
Nico Hoerner CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 1
 3.1%Palantir 8.0%market -4.9pp
P 3.1
F 4.7
V 3.5
1.6pp 0.923xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
32
Mike Trout LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 2
 14.3%Palantir 19.2%market -5.0pp
P 14.3
F 17.2
V 12.9
2.9pp 0.877xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
33
Alex Bregman CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 5
 10.1%Palantir 15.3%market -5.2pp
P 10.1
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.1pp 0.923xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
34
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 4
 14.3%Palantir 19.6%market -5.3pp
P 14.3
F 15.5
V 11.7
1.2pp 0.877xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
35
Josh Bell MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 4
 10.1%Palantir 15.5%market -5.4pp
P 10.1
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.1pp 0.863xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
36
Nolan Schanuel LAA
IL10
LAA vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 7
 3.4%Palantir 9.0%market -5.5pp
P 3.4
F 10.3
V 7.8
6.9pp 0.877xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1015 avg 3 books
37
Jake Mangum PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CHCColin Rea · slot 1
 1.9%Palantir 8.0%market -6.1pp
P 1.9
F 9.1
V 6.8
7.2pp 0.923xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
38
Edgar Quero CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 6
 1.8%Palantir 8.0%market -6.2pp
P 1.8
F 10.3
V 7.8
8.6pp 0.863xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
39
Christian Walker HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 4
 11.7%Palantir 18.2%market -6.4pp
P 11.7
F 15.5
V 11.7
3.8pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
40
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 5
 9.5%Palantir 16.0%market -6.5pp
P 9.5
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.7pp 0.877xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
41
Chase Meidroth CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 1
 1.5%Palantir 8.0%market -6.5pp
P 1.5
F 2.8
V 2.1
1.4pp 0.863xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
42
Yoán Moncada LAA
IL10
LAA vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 6
 6.8%Palantir 13.3%market -6.6pp
P 6.8
F 15.5
V 11.6
8.7pp 0.877xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
43
Matt Wallner MIN
OUT
MIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 2
 12.5%Palantir 20.0%market -7.5pp
P 12.5
F 14.2
V 10.7
1.7pp 0.863xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 400 avg 3 books
44
Corey Seager TEX
IL10
TEX vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 2
 14.9%Palantir 22.5%market -7.6pp
P 14.9
F 17.2
V 13.0
2.3pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
45
Royce Lewis MIN
OUT
MIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 5
 7.6%Palantir 15.8%market -8.1pp
P 7.6
F 11.4
V 8.6
3.8pp 0.863xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
46
Daulton Varsho TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs BALChris Bassitt · slot 4
 9.3%Palantir 17.5%market -8.2pp
P 9.3
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.9pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
47
Byron Buxton MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 3
 12.7%Palantir 21.1%market -8.4pp
P 12.7
F 15.5
V 11.7
2.8pp 0.863xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
48
Luke Keaschall MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 1
 2.3%Palantir 11.0%market -8.7pp
P 2.3
F 2.8
V 2.1
0.5pp 0.863xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
49
Yordan Alvarez HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 2
 12.0%Palantir 20.8%market -8.8pp
P 12.0
F 15.7
V 11.8
3.7pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
50
Pete Alonso BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 2
 14.2%Palantir 23.8%market -9.6pp
P 14.2
F 15.5
V 11.7
1.3pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 320 avg 3 books
51
Jake Burger TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 4
 9.5%Palantir 19.2%market -9.7pp
P 9.5
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.8pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
52
Marcell Ozuna PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CHCColin Rea · slot 2
 10.5%Palantir 21.1%market -10.5pp
P 10.5
F 13.6
V 10.2
3.1pp 0.923xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
53
Jorge Soler LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 3
 5.1%Palantir 17.2%market -12.2pp
P 5.1
F 11.1
V 8.4
6.1pp 0.877xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
54
Colson Montgomery CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 3
 8.4%Palantir 23.3%market -14.9pp
P 8.4
F 11.1
V 8.3
2.7pp 0.863xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books

Data context

779 sample flags
Status1505roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.