Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-05-28 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health
2026-09-01
Palantir
17901 props
Brier 0.117
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
17901 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12243 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.005
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Lineups not posted
The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Ryan Mountcastle
BAL
IL60
|
BAL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 7 |
11.6%Valinor | 10.4%market | +6.8pp |
P
6.6
F
15.5
V
11.6
|
8.9pp | 0.964xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 830 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Adley Rutschman
BAL
Lineup pending
|
BAL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 5 |
10.7%Valinor | 11.9%market | +6.8pp |
P
11.0
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
3.2pp | 0.964xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 710 avg 3 books |
| 03 |
Jeremy Peña
HOU
Lineup pending
|
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 1 |
12.9%Valinor | 11.2%market | +5.8pp |
P
11.4
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
5.8pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 765 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Wyatt Langford
TEX
IL10
|
TEX vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 1 |
13.5%Valinor | 14.4%market | +5.2pp |
P
15.7
F
17.9
V
13.5
|
2.2pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 570 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Carlos Correa
HOU
IL10
|
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 6 |
11.8%Valinor | 11.1%market | +5.2pp |
P
11.2
F
15.7
V
11.8
|
4.5pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 770 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
Evan Carter
TEX
Lineup pending
|
TEX vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 6 |
13.4%Valinor | 11.0%market | +5.2pp |
P
11.1
F
17.9
V
13.4
|
6.8pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 780 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Ryan O'Hearn
PIT
IL10
|
PIT vs CHCColin Rea · slot 3 |
13.5%Valinor | 13.0%market | +5.2pp |
P
13.6
F
17.9
V
13.5
|
4.3pp | 0.923xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 640 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Bryan Reynolds
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs CHCColin Rea · slot 5 |
10.7%Valinor | 13.5%market | +5.0pp |
P
11.6
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
2.6pp | 0.923xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 615 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Brandon Nimmo
TEX
Lineup pending
|
TEX vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 3 |
13.5%Valinor | 15.6%market | +4.9pp |
P
14.2
F
17.9
V
13.5
|
3.7pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 515 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Spencer Horwitz
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs CHCColin Rea · slot 6 |
11.8%Valinor | 11.3%market | +4.9pp |
P
11.1
F
15.7
V
11.8
|
4.6pp | 0.923xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 755 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Jesús Sánchez
TOR
Lineup pending
|
TOR vs BALChris Bassitt · slot 5 |
12.9%Valinor | 12.3%market | +4.2pp |
P
12.4
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
4.8pp | 0.964xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 685 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Nathan Lukes
TOR
Lineup pending
|
TOR vs BALChris Bassitt · slot 6 |
13.4%Valinor | 9.1%market | +4.2pp |
P
3.8
F
17.9
V
13.4
|
14.1pp | 0.964xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 960 avg 3 books |
| 13 | Lineup pending | CWS vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 4 |
11.8%Valinor | 13.0%market | +3.5pp |
P
11.8
F
15.7
V
11.8
|
3.9pp | 0.863xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 640 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Jarren Duran
BOS
Lineup pending
|
BOS vs ATLChris Sale · slot 1 |
10.0%Valinor | 10.9%market | +3.5pp |
P
11.4
F
13.4
V
10.0
|
2.0pp | 1.014xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 790 avg 3 books |
| 15 |
Roman Anthony
BOS
IL10
|
BOS vs ATLChris Sale · slot 2 |
12.9%Valinor | 11.1%market | +3.2pp |
P
13.2
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
4.1pp | 1.014xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 770 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Joc Pederson
TEX
Lineup pending
|
TEX vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 5 |
11.8%Valinor | 14.1%market | +3.1pp |
P
14.1
F
15.7
V
11.8
|
1.6pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 580 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Jose Altuve
HOU
IL10
|
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 3 |
12.9%Valinor | 15.0%market | +3.0pp |
P
10.7
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
6.5pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 540 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Gunnar Henderson
BAL
Lineup pending
|
BAL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 1 |
10.2%Valinor | 16.4%market | +2.0pp |
P
13.1
F
13.6
V
10.2
|
0.4pp | 0.964xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 485 avg 3 books |
| 19 | Lineup pending | BOS vs ATLChris Sale · slot 3 |
11.6%Valinor | 15.8%market | +2.0pp |
P
12.2
F
15.5
V
11.6
|
3.3pp | 1.014xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 510 avg 3 books |
| 20 |
Isaac Paredes
HOU
Lineup pending
|
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 5 |
11.6%Valinor | 15.2%market | +1.8pp |
P
11.2
F
15.5
V
11.6
|
4.3pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 530 avg 3 books |
| 21 |
Trevor Larnach
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 7 |
10.7%Valinor | 11.9%market | +1.7pp |
P
10.1
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
4.1pp | 0.863xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 705 avg 3 books |
| 22 |
Nolan Schanuel
LAA
IL10
|
LAA vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 7 |
7.8%Valinor | 8.5%market | +1.6pp |
P
3.4
F
10.3
V
7.8
|
6.9pp | 0.877xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
Ian Happ
CHC
Lineup pending
|
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 4 |
10.7%Valinor | 14.8%market | +1.6pp |
P
12.4
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
1.9pp | 0.923xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 550 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
Taylor Ward
BAL
Lineup pending
|
BAL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 4 |
13.5%Valinor | 17.8%market | +1.5pp |
P
14.8
F
17.9
V
13.5
|
3.1pp | 0.964xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 440 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Yoán Moncada
LAA
IL10
|
LAA vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 6 |
11.6%Valinor | 12.8%market | +1.4pp |
P
6.8
F
15.5
V
11.6
|
8.7pp | 0.877xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 655 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Josh Bell
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 4 |
10.7%Valinor | 14.8%market | +1.3pp |
P
10.1
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
4.1pp | 0.863xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 550 avg 3 books |
| 27 | Lineup pending | TOR vs BALChris Bassitt · slot 2 |
12.9%Valinor | 16.2%market | +1.2pp |
P
12.4
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
4.8pp | 0.964xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 495 avg 3 books |
| 28 |
Christian Walker
HOU
Lineup pending
|
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 4 |
11.7%Valinor | 17.3%market | +0.9pp |
P
11.7
F
15.5
V
11.7
|
3.8pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 455 avg 3 books |
| 29 |
Dansby Swanson
CHC
Lineup pending
|
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 6 |
10.7%Valinor | 13.1%market | +0.9pp |
P
11.9
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
2.3pp | 0.923xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 635 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
George Springer
TOR
Lineup pending
|
TOR vs BALChris Bassitt · slot 1 |
11.8%Valinor | 16.7%market | +0.6pp |
P
13.3
F
15.7
V
11.8
|
2.5pp | 0.964xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 475 avg 3 books |
| 31 |
Edgar Quero
CWS
Lineup pending
|
CWS vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 6 |
7.8%Valinor | 7.7%market | +0.4pp |
P
1.8
F
10.3
V
7.8
|
8.6pp | 0.863xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Alex Bregman
CHC
Lineup pending
|
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 5 |
10.7%Valinor | 14.6%market | +0.2pp |
P
10.1
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
4.1pp | 0.923xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 560 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Jake Mangum
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs CHCColin Rea · slot 1 |
6.8%Valinor | 7.7%market | -0.6pp |
P
1.9
F
9.1
V
6.8
|
7.2pp | 0.923xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 34 |
Daulton Varsho
TOR
Lineup pending
|
TOR vs BALChris Bassitt · slot 4 |
10.7%Valinor | 17.1%market | -0.6pp |
P
9.3
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
4.9pp | 0.964xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
Luke Keaschall
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 1 |
2.1%Valinor | 10.6%market | -0.7pp |
P
2.3
F
2.8
V
2.1
|
0.5pp | 0.863xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 810 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Zach Neto
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 1 |
12.9%Valinor | 16.7%market | -0.9pp |
P
12.7
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
4.5pp | 0.877xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 480 avg 3 books |
| 37 |
Yordan Alvarez
HOU
Lineup pending
|
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 2 |
11.8%Valinor | 20.3%market | -1.1pp |
P
12.0
F
15.7
V
11.8
|
3.7pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 375 avg 3 books |
| 38 |
Tyler O'Neill
BAL
Lineup pending
|
BAL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 3 |
12.9%Valinor | 18.6%market | -1.1pp |
P
14.2
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
3.0pp | 0.964xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 420 avg 3 books |
| 39 |
Chase Meidroth
CWS
Lineup pending
|
CWS vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 1 |
2.1%Valinor | 7.7%market | -1.4pp |
P
1.5
F
2.8
V
2.1
|
1.4pp | 0.863xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 40 |
Corey Seager
TEX
IL10
|
TEX vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 2 |
13.0%Valinor | 22.0%market | -1.7pp |
P
14.9
F
17.2
V
13.0
|
2.3pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 340 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Jake Burger
TEX
Lineup pending
|
TEX vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 4 |
10.0%Valinor | 19.2%market | -1.7pp |
P
9.5
F
13.4
V
10.0
|
3.8pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 420 avg 3 books |
| 42 |
Logan O'Hoppe
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 5 |
10.7%Valinor | 16.0%market | -1.7pp |
P
9.5
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
4.7pp | 0.877xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 525 avg 3 books |
| 43 |
Jorge Soler
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 3 |
8.4%Valinor | 17.2%market | -1.7pp |
P
5.1
F
11.1
V
8.4
|
6.1pp | 0.877xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 480 avg 3 books |
| 44 |
Brandon Lowe
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs CHCColin Rea · slot 4 |
12.9%Valinor | 20.4%market | -1.9pp |
P
16.6
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
0.7pp | 0.923xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 390 avg 3 books |
| 45 |
Nico Hoerner
CHC
Lineup pending
|
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 1 |
3.5%Valinor | 8.0%market | -2.2pp |
P
3.1
F
4.7
V
3.5
|
1.6pp | 0.923xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books |
| 46 |
Marcell Ozuna
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs CHCColin Rea · slot 2 |
10.2%Valinor | 21.1%market | -2.3pp |
P
10.5
F
13.6
V
10.2
|
3.1pp | 0.923xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 375 avg 3 books |
| 47 |
Royce Lewis
MIN
OUT
|
MIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 5 |
8.6%Valinor | 15.8%market | -2.3pp |
P
7.6
F
11.4
V
8.6
|
3.8pp | 0.863xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 535 avg 3 books |
| 48 |
Michael Busch
CHC
Lineup pending
|
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 3 |
12.9%Valinor | 18.7%market | -2.7pp |
P
14.8
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
2.4pp | 0.923xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 435 avg 3 books |
| 49 |
Pete Alonso
BAL
Lineup pending
|
BAL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 2 |
11.7%Valinor | 23.8%market | -3.2pp |
P
14.2
F
15.5
V
11.7
|
1.3pp | 0.964xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 320 avg 3 books |
| 50 |
Mike Trout
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 2 |
12.9%Valinor | 19.2%market | -3.5pp |
P
14.3
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
2.9pp | 0.877xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 420 avg 3 books |
| 51 |
Matt Wallner
MIN
OUT
|
MIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 2 |
10.7%Valinor | 20.0%market | -4.6pp |
P
12.5
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
1.7pp | 0.863xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 400 avg 3 books |
| 52 |
Jo Adell
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 4 |
11.7%Valinor | 19.6%market | -5.0pp |
P
14.3
F
15.5
V
11.7
|
1.2pp | 0.877xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 410 avg 3 books |
| 53 |
Byron Buxton
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 3 |
11.7%Valinor | 21.1%market | -6.0pp |
P
12.7
F
15.5
V
11.7
|
2.8pp | 0.863xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 375 avg 3 books |
| 54 | Lineup pending | CWS vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 3 |
8.3%Valinor | 23.3%market | -7.7pp |
P
8.4
F
11.1
V
8.3
|
2.7pp | 0.863xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 330 avg 3 books |
Data context
779 sample flagsStatus1505roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.