Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-05-28 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
54
Matched
162
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2026-05-28 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Nathan Lukes TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs BALChris Bassitt · slot 6
 17.9%Fangorn 9.1%market +8.8pp
P 3.8
F 17.9
V 13.4
14.1pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
02
Evan Carter TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 6
 17.9%Fangorn 11.0%market +6.9pp
P 11.1
F 17.9
V 13.4
6.8pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
03
Roman Anthony BOS
IL10
BOS vs ATLChris Sale · slot 2
 17.2%Fangorn 11.1%market +6.1pp
P 13.2
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.1pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
04
Jeremy Peña HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 1
 17.2%Fangorn 11.2%market +6.0pp
P 11.4
F 17.2
V 12.9
5.8pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
05
Ryan Mountcastle BAL
IL60
BAL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 7
 15.5%Fangorn 10.4%market +5.1pp
P 6.6
F 15.5
V 11.6
8.9pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 830 avg 3 books
06
Ryan O'Hearn PIT
IL10
PIT vs CHCColin Rea · slot 3
 17.9%Fangorn 13.0%market +4.9pp
P 13.6
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.3pp 0.923xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
07
Jesús Sánchez TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs BALChris Bassitt · slot 5
 17.2%Fangorn 12.3%market +4.9pp
P 12.4
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.8pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
08
Carlos Correa HOU
IL10
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 6
 15.7%Fangorn 11.1%market +4.6pp
P 11.2
F 15.7
V 11.8
4.5pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
09
Spencer Horwitz PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CHCColin Rea · slot 6
 15.7%Fangorn 11.3%market +4.4pp
P 11.1
F 15.7
V 11.8
4.6pp 0.923xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 750 avg 3 books
10
Wyatt Langford TEX
IL10
TEX vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 14.4%market +3.6pp
P 15.7
F 17.9
V 13.5
2.2pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
11
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 4
 15.7%Fangorn 13.0%market +2.7pp
P 11.8
F 15.7
V 11.8
3.9pp 0.863xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
12
Jarren Duran BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs ATLChris Sale · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 10.9%market +2.5pp
P 11.4
F 13.4
V 10.0
2.0pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
13
Adley Rutschman BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 5
 14.2%Fangorn 11.9%market +2.3pp
P 11.0
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.2pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 710 avg 3 books
14
Brandon Nimmo TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 3
 17.9%Fangorn 15.6%market +2.3pp
P 14.2
F 17.9
V 13.5
3.7pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
15
Jose Altuve HOU
IL10
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 3
 17.2%Fangorn 15.0%market +2.2pp
P 10.7
F 17.2
V 12.9
6.5pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
16
Joc Pederson TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 5
 15.7%Fangorn 14.1%market +1.6pp
P 14.1
F 15.7
V 11.8
1.6pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
17
Bryan Reynolds PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CHCColin Rea · slot 5
 14.2%Fangorn 13.5%market +0.8pp
P 11.6
F 14.2
V 10.7
2.6pp 0.923xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
18
Yoán Moncada LAA
IL10
LAA vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 6
 15.5%Fangorn 12.8%market +2.7pp
P 6.8
F 15.5
V 11.6
8.7pp 0.877xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
19
Edgar Quero CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 6
 10.3%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.7pp
P 1.8
F 10.3
V 7.8
8.6pp 0.863xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
20
Trevor Larnach MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 7
 14.2%Fangorn 11.9%market +2.3pp
P 10.1
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.1pp 0.863xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 705 avg 3 books
21
Nolan Schanuel LAA
IL10
LAA vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 7
 10.3%Fangorn 8.5%market +1.8pp
P 3.4
F 10.3
V 7.8
6.9pp 0.877xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
22
Jake Mangum PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CHCColin Rea · slot 1
 9.1%Fangorn 7.7%market +1.4pp
P 1.9
F 9.1
V 6.8
7.2pp 0.923xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
23
Dansby Swanson CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 6
 14.2%Fangorn 13.1%market +1.1pp
P 11.9
F 14.2
V 10.7
2.3pp 0.923xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
24
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs BALChris Bassitt · slot 2
 17.2%Fangorn 16.2%market +1.1pp
P 12.4
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.8pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
25
Zach Neto LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 1
 17.2%Fangorn 16.3%market +0.9pp
P 12.7
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.5pp 0.877xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 490 avg 3 books
26
Isaac Paredes HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 5
 15.5%Fangorn 16.0%market -0.5pp
P 11.2
F 15.5
V 11.6
4.3pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
27
Taylor Ward BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 4
 17.9%Fangorn 18.7%market -0.8pp
P 14.8
F 17.9
V 13.5
3.1pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
28
Willson Contreras BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs ATLChris Sale · slot 3
 15.5%Fangorn 16.5%market -1.0pp
P 12.2
F 15.5
V 11.6
3.3pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 505 avg 3 books
29
Alex Bregman CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 5
 14.2%Fangorn 15.3%market -1.1pp
P 10.1
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.1pp 0.923xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
30
Ian Happ CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 4
 14.2%Fangorn 15.5%market -1.3pp
P 12.4
F 14.2
V 10.7
1.9pp 0.923xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
31
Josh Bell MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 4
 14.2%Fangorn 15.5%market -1.3pp
P 10.1
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.1pp 0.863xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
32
Michael Busch CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 3
 17.2%Fangorn 18.7%market -1.5pp
P 14.8
F 17.2
V 12.9
2.4pp 0.923xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
33
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 5
 14.2%Fangorn 16.0%market -1.8pp
P 9.5
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.7pp 0.877xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
34
Tyler O'Neill BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 3
 17.2%Fangorn 19.1%market -1.8pp
P 14.2
F 17.2
V 12.9
3.0pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
35
George Springer TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs BALChris Bassitt · slot 1
 15.7%Fangorn 17.7%market -2.0pp
P 13.3
F 15.7
V 11.8
2.5pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
36
Mike Trout LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 2
 17.2%Fangorn 19.2%market -2.0pp
P 14.3
F 17.2
V 12.9
2.9pp 0.877xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
37
Christian Walker HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 4
 15.5%Fangorn 18.2%market -2.7pp
P 11.7
F 15.5
V 11.7
3.8pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
38
Brandon Lowe PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CHCColin Rea · slot 4
 17.2%Fangorn 20.4%market -3.2pp
P 16.6
F 17.2
V 12.9
0.7pp 0.923xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
39
Nico Hoerner CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 1
 4.7%Fangorn 8.0%market -3.3pp
P 3.1
F 4.7
V 3.5
1.6pp 0.923xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
40
Daulton Varsho TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs BALChris Bassitt · slot 4
 14.2%Fangorn 17.5%market -3.3pp
P 9.3
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.9pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
41
Gunnar Henderson BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 1
 13.6%Fangorn 17.4%market -3.8pp
P 13.1
F 13.6
V 10.2
0.4pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
42
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 4
 15.5%Fangorn 19.6%market -4.1pp
P 14.3
F 15.5
V 11.7
1.2pp 0.877xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
43
Royce Lewis MIN
OUT
MIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 5
 11.4%Fangorn 15.8%market -4.3pp
P 7.6
F 11.4
V 8.6
3.8pp 0.863xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
44
Yordan Alvarez HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 2
 15.7%Fangorn 20.8%market -5.1pp
P 12.0
F 15.7
V 11.8
3.7pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
45
Chase Meidroth CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 1
 2.8%Fangorn 8.0%market -5.2pp
P 1.5
F 2.8
V 2.1
1.4pp 0.863xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
46
Corey Seager TEX
IL10
TEX vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 2
 17.2%Fangorn 22.5%market -5.3pp
P 14.9
F 17.2
V 13.0
2.3pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
47
Byron Buxton MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 3
 15.5%Fangorn 21.1%market -5.5pp
P 12.7
F 15.5
V 11.7
2.8pp 0.863xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
48
Matt Wallner MIN
OUT
MIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 2
 14.2%Fangorn 20.0%market -5.8pp
P 12.5
F 14.2
V 10.7
1.7pp 0.863xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 400 avg 3 books
49
Jake Burger TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.9pp
P 9.5
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.8pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
50
Jorge Soler LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 3
 11.1%Fangorn 17.2%market -6.1pp
P 5.1
F 11.1
V 8.4
6.1pp 0.877xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
51
Marcell Ozuna PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CHCColin Rea · slot 2
 13.6%Fangorn 21.1%market -7.5pp
P 10.5
F 13.6
V 10.2
3.1pp 0.923xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
52
Luke Keaschall MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 1
 2.8%Fangorn 11.0%market -8.2pp
P 2.3
F 2.8
V 2.1
0.5pp 0.863xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
53
Pete Alonso BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 2
 15.5%Fangorn 23.8%market -8.3pp
P 14.2
F 15.5
V 11.7
1.3pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 320 avg 3 books
54
Colson Montgomery CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 3
 11.1%Fangorn 23.3%market -12.2pp
P 8.4
F 11.1
V 8.3
2.7pp 0.863xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books

Data context

779 sample flags
Status1505roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.