Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-07-28 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
64
Matched
240
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-07-28 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs TORShane Bieber · slot 3
 16.5%Palantir 11.1%market +5.4pp
P 16.5
F 11.4
V 11.1
5.5pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
02
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 6
 13.6%Palantir 9.1%market +4.5pp
P 13.6
F 15.5
V 9.9
5.6pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
03
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs CHCColin Rea · slot 2
 16.1%Palantir 12.5%market +3.6pp
P 16.1
F 15.5
V 11.9
4.2pp 0.976xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
04
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2
 13.3%Palantir 10.1%market +3.2pp
P 13.3
F 13.6
V 12.5
1.1pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
05
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs TORShane Bieber · slot 1
 17.1%Palantir 13.9%market +3.2pp
P 17.1
F 22.3
V 13.8
8.5pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
06
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs TORShane Bieber · slot 6
 10.6%Palantir 7.7%market +2.9pp
P 10.6
F 14.9
V 9.8
5.1pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
07
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 3
 15.5%Palantir 12.7%market +2.8pp
P 15.5
F 22.3
V 13.2
9.1pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
08
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs TORShane Bieber · slot 4
 14.2%Palantir 12.4%market +1.8pp
P 14.2
F 14.9
V 12.8
2.1pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
09
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 2
 15.6%Palantir 14.2%market +1.4pp
P 15.6
F 22.3
V 15.4
6.8pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
10
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs TORShane Bieber · slot 5
 10.9%Palantir 9.8%market +1.1pp
P 10.9
F 13.6
V 11.0
2.7pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
11
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs CHCColin Rea · slot 3
 14.3%Palantir 13.3%market +1.0pp
P 14.3
F 15.5
V 12.2
3.3pp 0.976xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
12
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 7
 10.5%Palantir 9.6%market +0.9pp
P 10.5
F 11.4
V 8.0
3.4pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
13
Bo Bichette NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs ATLChris Sale · slot 3
 12.8%Palantir 12.1%market +0.7pp
P 12.8
F 14.9
V 7.5
7.4pp 0.977xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 695 avg 3 books
14
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 6
 11.2%Palantir 11.5%market -0.3pp
P 11.2
F 14.9
V 9.9
5.0pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 770 avg 3 books
15
Ryan O'Hearn PIT
IN
PIT vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 3
 13.1%Palantir 13.6%market -0.5pp
P 13.1
F 15.5
V 11.7
3.8pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
16
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs TORShane Bieber · slot 2
 16.9%Palantir 17.4%market -0.5pp
P 16.9
F 22.3
V 15.8
6.4pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
17
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 7
 11.8%Palantir 12.5%market -0.7pp
P 11.8
F 13.6
V 9.2
4.3pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
18
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
 13.9%Palantir 14.8%market -1.0pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 14.1
0.8pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
19
Vinnie Pasquantino KC
IN
KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 3
 16.6%Palantir 17.7%market -1.1pp
P 16.6
F 22.3
V 19.3
5.7pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
20
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 5
 13.0%Palantir 14.2%market -1.2pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 14.1
1.1pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
21
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 5
 12.8%Palantir 14.1%market -1.3pp
P 12.8
F 12.2
V 12.5
0.6pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
22
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5
 9.8%Palantir 11.2%market -1.3pp
P 9.8
F 11.6
V 10.5
1.8pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 795 avg 3 books
23
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 2
 15.6%Palantir 17.0%market -1.4pp
P 15.6
F 14.9
V 16.0
1.1pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
24
Dansby Swanson CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 6
 12.2%Palantir 13.6%market -1.4pp
P 12.2
F 13.4
V 9.5
3.9pp 0.976xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
25
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 4
 13.8%Palantir 15.5%market -1.7pp
P 13.8
F 13.6
V 11.7
2.2pp 0.976xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
26
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs SDMichael King · slot 1
 8.6%Palantir 10.3%market -1.7pp
P 8.6
F 9.6
V 9.1
1.0pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 870 avg 3 books
27
Edouard Julien COL
IN
COL vs SDMichael King · slot 6
 9.6%Palantir 11.3%market -1.7pp
P 9.6
F 11.4
V 8.8
2.6pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 785 avg 3 books
28
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs BALDean Kremer · slot 6
 9.2%Palantir 11.0%market -1.8pp
P 9.2
F 9.6
V 9.9
0.7pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
29
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
 13.1%Palantir 15.5%market -2.4pp
P 13.1
F 13.6
V 13.2
0.5pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
30
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs SDMichael King · slot 4
 10.5%Palantir 13.1%market -2.5pp
P 10.5
F 9.3
V 10.2
1.2pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
31
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 3
 13.6%Palantir 16.3%market -2.7pp
P 13.6
F 10.6
V 12.7
3.0pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
32
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2
 13.8%Palantir 17.0%market -3.1pp
P 13.8
F 15.5
V 15.8
1.9pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
33
Lane Thomas KC
IN
KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 5
 9.4%Palantir 13.0%market -3.6pp
P 9.4
F 11.4
V 16.9
7.5pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
34
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs BALDean Kremer · slot 1
 8.1%Palantir 9.2%market -1.1pp
P 8.1
F 9.6
V 10.3
2.2pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 990 avg 3 books
35
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
 9.0%Palantir 10.5%market -1.4pp
P 9.0
F 11.6
V 9.8
2.6pp 0.915xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 855 avg 3 books
36
Jake Mangum PIT
IN
PIT vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 1
 6.5%Palantir 8.0%market -1.5pp
P 6.5
F 7.4
V 11.5
5.0pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
37
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1
 6.4%Palantir 8.0%market -1.6pp
P 6.4
F 8.6
V 10.6
4.2pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
38
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
 8.8%Palantir 11.0%market -2.1pp
P 8.8
F 1.8
V 11.8
10.0pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
39
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 5
 13.7%Palantir 16.1%market -2.4pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 15.2
1.8pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
40
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 1
 5.5%Palantir 8.0%market -2.5pp
P 5.5
F 7.4
V 11.3
5.8pp 0.976xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
41
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2
 14.6%Palantir 17.2%market -2.7pp
P 14.6
F 15.5
V 14.4
1.1pp 0.915xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
42
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
 15.0%Palantir 17.7%market -2.7pp
P 15.0
F 14.9
V 16.0
1.1pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
43
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 1
 14.1%Palantir 17.2%market -3.1pp
P 14.1
F 14.9
V 12.6
2.3pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
44
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3
 9.4%Palantir 13.0%market -3.6pp
P 9.4
F 11.4
V 13.1
3.7pp 0.915xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
45
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 5
 11.5%Palantir 15.3%market -3.8pp
P 11.5
F 12.2
V 12.0
0.7pp 0.976xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
46
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 3
 14.8%Palantir 18.7%market -3.9pp
P 14.8
F 15.5
V 12.5
3.0pp 0.976xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
47
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs BALDean Kremer · slot 5
 13.0%Palantir 17.0%market -3.9pp
P 13.0
F 13.6
V 15.6
2.6pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
48
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 4
 14.1%Palantir 18.0%market -4.0pp
P 14.1
F 14.9
V 18.9
4.9pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
49
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
 15.4%Palantir 19.6%market -4.2pp
P 15.4
F 14.9
V 15.2
0.5pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
50
Riley Greene DET
IN
DET vs BALDean Kremer · slot 4
 14.1%Palantir 18.5%market -4.4pp
P 14.1
F 14.9
V 15.8
1.6pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 440 avg 3 books
51
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 1
 3.5%Palantir 8.0%market -4.5pp
P 3.5
F 0.0
V 6.8
6.8pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
52
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 3
 14.3%Palantir 19.1%market -4.8pp
P 14.3
F 13.6
V 16.7
3.1pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
53
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4
 12.7%Palantir 17.5%market -4.8pp
P 12.7
F 12.2
V 15.8
3.6pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
54
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs SDMichael King · slot 2
 12.6%Palantir 18.0%market -5.4pp
P 12.6
F 14.9
V 12.0
2.9pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
55
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 2
 13.4%Palantir 18.9%market -5.4pp
P 13.4
F 13.6
V 14.0
0.6pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
56
Brandon Lowe PIT
IN
PIT vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 4
 14.6%Palantir 20.4%market -5.9pp
P 14.6
F 14.9
V 12.8
2.1pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
57
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 4
 12.1%Palantir 18.4%market -6.3pp
P 12.1
F 12.2
V 15.7
3.6pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
58
Royce Lewis MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 5
 9.4%Palantir 15.8%market -6.3pp
P 9.4
F 11.6
V 12.5
3.1pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
59
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 6
 11.3%Palantir 19.2%market -8.0pp
P 11.3
F 11.6
V 12.2
1.0pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
60
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 4
 13.9%Palantir 22.0%market -8.1pp
P 13.9
F 15.5
V 14.2
1.6pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
61
Byron Buxton MIN
IN
MIN vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 3
 12.7%Palantir 21.1%market -8.4pp
P 12.7
F 14.9
V 13.5
2.3pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
62
Marcell Ozuna PIT
IN
PIT vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 2
 12.1%Palantir 21.1%market -8.9pp
P 12.1
F 11.6
V 13.3
1.7pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
63
Kyle Schwarber PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
 14.0%Palantir 27.0%market -13.0pp
P 14.0
F 14.9
V 15.0
1.0pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
64
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 1
 14.0%Palantir 29.8%market -15.9pp
P 14.0
F 15.5
V 20.1
6.1pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2415roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.