Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-07-28 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
64
Matched
240
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-07-28 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Lane Thomas KC
IN
KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 5
 16.9%Valinor 12.5%market +4.0pp
P 9.4
F 11.4
V 16.9
7.5pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
02
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2
 12.5%Valinor 10.1%market +2.0pp
P 13.3
F 13.6
V 12.5
1.1pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
03
Vinnie Pasquantino KC
IN
KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 3
 19.3%Valinor 16.7%market +1.9pp
P 16.6
F 22.3
V 19.3
5.7pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
04
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs TORShane Bieber · slot 6
 9.8%Valinor 7.7%market +1.8pp
P 10.6
F 14.9
V 9.8
5.1pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
05
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs TORShane Bieber · slot 5
 11.0%Valinor 9.8%market +0.8pp
P 10.9
F 13.6
V 11.0
2.7pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
06
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 2
 15.4%Valinor 14.2%market +0.6pp
P 15.6
F 22.3
V 15.4
6.8pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
07
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 6
 9.9%Valinor 9.1%market +0.5pp
P 13.6
F 15.5
V 9.9
5.6pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
08
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 5
 14.1%Valinor 13.6%market -0.1pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 14.1
1.1pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
09
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs TORShane Bieber · slot 4
 12.8%Valinor 13.0%market -0.1pp
P 14.2
F 14.9
V 12.8
2.1pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
10
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 3
 13.2%Valinor 13.3%market -0.1pp
P 15.5
F 22.3
V 13.2
9.1pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
11
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs TORShane Bieber · slot 3
 11.1%Valinor 11.1%market -0.5pp
P 16.5
F 11.4
V 11.1
5.5pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 765 avg 3 books
12
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
 14.1%Valinor 14.3%market -0.7pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 14.1
0.8pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
13
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5
 10.5%Valinor 10.7%market -0.7pp
P 9.8
F 11.6
V 10.5
1.8pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
14
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs TORShane Bieber · slot 1
 13.8%Valinor 14.1%market -0.8pp
P 17.1
F 22.3
V 13.8
8.5pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
15
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs CHCColin Rea · slot 2
 11.9%Valinor 12.5%market -1.1pp
P 16.1
F 15.5
V 11.9
4.2pp 0.976xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
16
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 2
 16.0%Valinor 16.5%market -1.1pp
P 15.6
F 14.9
V 16.0
1.1pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
17
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs BALDean Kremer · slot 6
 9.9%Valinor 10.6%market -1.1pp
P 9.2
F 9.6
V 9.9
0.7pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 810 avg 3 books
18
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2
 15.8%Valinor 16.4%market -1.2pp
P 13.8
F 15.5
V 15.8
1.9pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
19
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs SDMichael King · slot 1
 9.1%Valinor 9.9%market -1.2pp
P 8.6
F 9.6
V 9.1
1.0pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 870 avg 3 books
20
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs CHCColin Rea · slot 3
 12.2%Valinor 13.3%market -1.5pp
P 14.3
F 15.5
V 12.2
3.3pp 0.976xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
21
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 6
 9.9%Valinor 11.0%market -1.6pp
P 11.2
F 14.9
V 9.9
5.0pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 770 avg 3 books
22
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs TORShane Bieber · slot 2
 15.8%Valinor 16.8%market -1.6pp
P 16.9
F 22.3
V 15.8
6.4pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 475 avg 3 books
23
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 5
 12.5%Valinor 13.6%market -1.6pp
P 12.8
F 12.2
V 12.5
0.6pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
24
Ryan O'Hearn PIT
IN
PIT vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 3
 11.7%Valinor 13.6%market -1.9pp
P 13.1
F 15.5
V 11.7
3.8pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
25
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 7
 8.0%Valinor 9.7%market -2.1pp
P 10.5
F 11.4
V 8.0
3.4pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 890 avg 3 books
26
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
 13.2%Valinor 15.0%market -2.3pp
P 13.1
F 13.6
V 13.2
0.5pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
27
Edouard Julien COL
IN
COL vs SDMichael King · slot 6
 8.8%Valinor 10.9%market -2.5pp
P 9.6
F 11.4
V 8.8
2.6pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 785 avg 3 books
28
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs SDMichael King · slot 4
 10.2%Valinor 13.1%market -2.8pp
P 10.5
F 9.3
V 10.2
1.2pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
29
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 7
 9.2%Valinor 12.5%market -3.2pp
P 11.8
F 13.6
V 9.2
4.3pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
30
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 3
 12.7%Valinor 15.7%market -3.5pp
P 13.6
F 10.6
V 12.7
3.0pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
31
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 4
 11.7%Valinor 15.0%market -3.8pp
P 13.8
F 13.6
V 11.7
2.2pp 0.976xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
32
Dansby Swanson CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 6
 9.5%Valinor 13.1%market -4.2pp
P 12.2
F 13.4
V 9.5
3.9pp 0.976xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
33
Bo Bichette NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs ATLChris Sale · slot 3
 7.5%Valinor 12.7%market -5.2pp
P 12.8
F 14.9
V 7.5
7.4pp 0.977xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
34
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 1
 20.1%Valinor 29.3%market -10.2pp
P 14.0
F 15.5
V 20.1
6.1pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 230 avg 3 books
35
Kyle Schwarber PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
 15.0%Valinor 26.5%market -12.4pp
P 14.0
F 14.9
V 15.0
1.0pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
36
Jake Mangum PIT
IN
PIT vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 1
 11.5%Valinor 7.7%market +3.5pp
P 6.5
F 7.4
V 11.5
5.0pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
37
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 1
 11.3%Valinor 7.7%market +3.3pp
P 5.5
F 7.4
V 11.3
5.8pp 0.976xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
38
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1
 10.6%Valinor 7.7%market +2.6pp
P 6.4
F 8.6
V 10.6
4.2pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
39
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs BALDean Kremer · slot 1
 10.3%Valinor 8.7%market +1.3pp
P 8.1
F 9.6
V 10.3
2.2pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
40
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 4
 18.9%Valinor 17.2%market +1.1pp
P 14.1
F 14.9
V 18.9
4.9pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
41
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
 11.8%Valinor 10.5%market +1.0pp
P 8.8
F 1.8
V 11.8
10.0pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
42
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3
 13.1%Valinor 12.5%market +0.1pp
P 9.4
F 11.4
V 13.1
3.7pp 0.915xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
43
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
 9.8%Valinor 10.1%market -0.7pp
P 9.0
F 11.6
V 9.8
2.6pp 0.915xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
44
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 5
 15.2%Valinor 15.7%market -1.1pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 15.2
1.8pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
45
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 1
 6.8%Valinor 7.7%market -1.2pp
P 3.5
F 0.0
V 6.8
6.8pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
46
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs BALDean Kremer · slot 5
 15.6%Valinor 16.5%market -1.5pp
P 13.0
F 13.6
V 15.6
2.6pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
47
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
 16.0%Valinor 17.1%market -1.7pp
P 15.0
F 14.9
V 16.0
1.1pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
48
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4
 15.8%Valinor 17.1%market -1.9pp
P 12.7
F 12.2
V 15.8
3.6pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
49
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 3
 16.7%Valinor 18.6%market -2.5pp
P 14.3
F 13.6
V 16.7
3.1pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
50
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 4
 15.7%Valinor 17.9%market -2.9pp
P 12.1
F 12.2
V 15.7
3.6pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
51
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2
 14.4%Valinor 16.7%market -2.9pp
P 14.6
F 15.5
V 14.4
1.1pp 0.915xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
52
Riley Greene DET
IN
DET vs BALDean Kremer · slot 4
 15.8%Valinor 18.1%market -2.9pp
P 14.1
F 14.9
V 15.8
1.6pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 435 avg 3 books
53
Royce Lewis MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 5
 12.5%Valinor 15.2%market -3.2pp
P 9.4
F 11.6
V 12.5
3.1pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
54
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 5
 12.0%Valinor 14.8%market -3.2pp
P 11.5
F 12.2
V 12.0
0.7pp 0.976xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
55
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
 15.2%Valinor 19.1%market -4.6pp
P 15.4
F 14.9
V 15.2
0.5pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
56
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 1
 12.6%Valinor 16.7%market -4.7pp
P 14.1
F 14.9
V 12.6
2.3pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
57
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 2
 14.0%Valinor 18.4%market -5.1pp
P 13.4
F 13.6
V 14.0
0.6pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
58
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs SDMichael King · slot 2
 12.0%Valinor 17.4%market -6.0pp
P 12.6
F 14.9
V 12.0
2.9pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
59
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 3
 12.5%Valinor 18.2%market -6.3pp
P 14.8
F 15.5
V 12.5
3.0pp 0.976xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
60
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 6
 12.2%Valinor 18.8%market -7.2pp
P 11.3
F 11.6
V 12.2
1.0pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
61
Brandon Lowe PIT
IN
PIT vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 4
 12.8%Valinor 19.9%market -7.8pp
P 14.6
F 14.9
V 12.8
2.1pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
62
Byron Buxton MIN
IN
MIN vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 3
 13.5%Valinor 20.5%market -7.8pp
P 12.7
F 14.9
V 13.5
2.3pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
63
Marcell Ozuna PIT
IN
PIT vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 2
 13.3%Valinor 20.5%market -8.0pp
P 12.1
F 11.6
V 13.3
1.7pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
64
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 4
 14.2%Valinor 21.5%market -8.1pp
P 13.9
F 15.5
V 14.2
1.6pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2415roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.