Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-07-28 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
64
Matched
240
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-07-28 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 3
 22.3%Fangorn 12.7%market +9.5pp
P 15.5
F 22.3
V 13.2
9.1pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
02
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs TORShane Bieber · slot 1
 22.3%Fangorn 13.9%market +8.3pp
P 17.1
F 22.3
V 13.8
8.5pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
03
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 2
 22.3%Fangorn 14.2%market +8.0pp
P 15.6
F 22.3
V 15.4
6.8pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
04
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs TORShane Bieber · slot 6
 14.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +7.2pp
P 10.6
F 14.9
V 9.8
5.1pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
05
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 6
 15.5%Fangorn 9.1%market +6.4pp
P 13.6
F 15.5
V 9.9
5.6pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
06
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs TORShane Bieber · slot 2
 22.3%Fangorn 16.4%market +5.8pp
P 16.9
F 22.3
V 15.8
6.4pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
07
Vinnie Pasquantino KC
IN
KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 3
 22.3%Fangorn 16.7%market +5.5pp
P 16.6
F 22.3
V 19.3
5.7pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
08
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 6
 14.9%Fangorn 11.0%market +3.9pp
P 11.2
F 14.9
V 9.9
5.0pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
09
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs TORShane Bieber · slot 5
 13.6%Fangorn 9.8%market +3.7pp
P 10.9
F 13.6
V 11.0
2.7pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
10
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2
 13.6%Fangorn 10.1%market +3.5pp
P 13.3
F 13.6
V 12.5
1.1pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
11
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs CHCColin Rea · slot 2
 15.5%Fangorn 12.5%market +3.0pp
P 16.1
F 15.5
V 11.9
4.2pp 0.976xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
12
Bo Bichette NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs ATLChris Sale · slot 3
 14.9%Fangorn 12.1%market +2.8pp
P 12.8
F 14.9
V 7.5
7.4pp 0.977xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 695 avg 3 books
13
Ryan O'Hearn PIT
IN
PIT vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 3
 15.5%Fangorn 13.0%market +2.5pp
P 13.1
F 15.5
V 11.7
3.8pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
14
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs TORShane Bieber · slot 4
 14.9%Fangorn 12.4%market +2.5pp
P 14.2
F 14.9
V 12.8
2.1pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
15
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs CHCColin Rea · slot 3
 15.5%Fangorn 13.3%market +2.3pp
P 14.3
F 15.5
V 12.2
3.3pp 0.976xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
16
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 7
 11.4%Fangorn 9.6%market +1.8pp
P 10.5
F 11.4
V 8.0
3.4pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
17
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 7
 13.6%Fangorn 11.9%market +1.6pp
P 11.8
F 13.6
V 9.2
4.3pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 705 avg 3 books
18
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5
 11.6%Fangorn 10.7%market +0.9pp
P 9.8
F 11.6
V 10.5
1.8pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
19
Edouard Julien COL
IN
COL vs SDMichael King · slot 6
 11.4%Fangorn 10.9%market +0.6pp
P 9.6
F 11.4
V 8.8
2.6pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
20
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs TORShane Bieber · slot 3
 11.4%Fangorn 11.1%market +0.3pp
P 16.5
F 11.4
V 11.1
5.5pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
21
Dansby Swanson CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 6
 13.4%Fangorn 13.1%market +0.3pp
P 12.2
F 13.4
V 9.5
3.9pp 0.976xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
22
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs SDMichael King · slot 1
 9.6%Fangorn 10.3%market -0.7pp
P 8.6
F 9.6
V 9.1
1.0pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 870 avg 3 books
23
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 14.2%market -0.8pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 14.1
1.1pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
24
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs BALDean Kremer · slot 6
 9.6%Fangorn 11.0%market -1.4pp
P 9.2
F 9.6
V 9.9
0.7pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
25
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2
 15.5%Fangorn 17.0%market -1.4pp
P 13.8
F 15.5
V 15.8
1.9pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
26
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 14.8%market -1.4pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 14.1
0.8pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
27
Lane Thomas KC
IN
KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 5
 11.4%Fangorn 13.0%market -1.6pp
P 9.4
F 11.4
V 16.9
7.5pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
28
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 5
 12.2%Fangorn 14.1%market -1.9pp
P 12.8
F 12.2
V 12.5
0.6pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
29
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 4
 13.6%Fangorn 15.5%market -1.9pp
P 13.8
F 13.6
V 11.7
2.2pp 0.976xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
30
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
 13.6%Fangorn 15.5%market -1.9pp
P 13.1
F 13.6
V 13.2
0.5pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
31
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 2
 14.9%Fangorn 17.0%market -2.0pp
P 15.6
F 14.9
V 16.0
1.1pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
32
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs SDMichael King · slot 4
 9.3%Fangorn 13.1%market -3.8pp
P 10.5
F 9.3
V 10.2
1.2pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
33
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 3
 10.6%Fangorn 16.3%market -5.6pp
P 13.6
F 10.6
V 12.7
3.0pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
34
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
 11.6%Fangorn 10.0%market +1.6pp
P 9.0
F 11.6
V 9.8
2.6pp 0.915xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
35
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1
 8.6%Fangorn 7.7%market +0.9pp
P 6.4
F 8.6
V 10.6
4.2pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
36
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs BALDean Kremer · slot 1
 9.6%Fangorn 8.7%market +0.9pp
P 8.1
F 9.6
V 10.3
2.2pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
37
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 1
 7.4%Fangorn 8.0%market -0.6pp
P 5.5
F 7.4
V 11.3
5.8pp 0.976xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
38
Jake Mangum PIT
IN
PIT vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 1
 7.4%Fangorn 8.0%market -0.6pp
P 6.5
F 7.4
V 11.5
5.0pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
39
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3
 11.4%Fangorn 13.0%market -1.6pp
P 9.4
F 11.4
V 13.1
3.7pp 0.915xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
40
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2
 15.5%Fangorn 17.2%market -1.7pp
P 14.6
F 15.5
V 14.4
1.1pp 0.915xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
41
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 1
 14.9%Fangorn 17.2%market -2.3pp
P 14.1
F 14.9
V 12.6
2.3pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
42
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 16.1%market -2.8pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 15.2
1.8pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
43
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
 14.9%Fangorn 17.7%market -2.8pp
P 15.0
F 14.9
V 16.0
1.1pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
44
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 5
 12.2%Fangorn 15.3%market -3.1pp
P 11.5
F 12.2
V 12.0
0.7pp 0.976xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
45
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs SDMichael King · slot 2
 14.9%Fangorn 18.0%market -3.1pp
P 12.6
F 14.9
V 12.0
2.9pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
46
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 4
 14.9%Fangorn 18.0%market -3.1pp
P 14.1
F 14.9
V 18.9
4.9pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
47
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 3
 15.5%Fangorn 18.7%market -3.2pp
P 14.8
F 15.5
V 12.5
3.0pp 0.976xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
48
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs BALDean Kremer · slot 5
 13.6%Fangorn 17.0%market -3.4pp
P 13.0
F 13.6
V 15.6
2.6pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
49
Riley Greene DET
IN
DET vs BALDean Kremer · slot 4
 14.9%Fangorn 18.5%market -3.6pp
P 14.1
F 14.9
V 15.8
1.6pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 440 avg 3 books
50
Royce Lewis MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 5
 11.6%Fangorn 15.8%market -4.2pp
P 9.4
F 11.6
V 12.5
3.1pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
51
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
 14.9%Fangorn 19.6%market -4.7pp
P 15.4
F 14.9
V 15.2
0.5pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
52
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 2
 13.6%Fangorn 18.9%market -5.3pp
P 13.4
F 13.6
V 14.0
0.6pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
53
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4
 12.2%Fangorn 17.5%market -5.3pp
P 12.7
F 12.2
V 15.8
3.6pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
54
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 3
 13.6%Fangorn 19.1%market -5.5pp
P 14.3
F 13.6
V 16.7
3.1pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
55
Brandon Lowe PIT
IN
PIT vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 4
 14.9%Fangorn 20.4%market -5.5pp
P 14.6
F 14.9
V 12.8
2.1pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
56
Byron Buxton MIN
IN
MIN vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 3
 14.9%Fangorn 21.1%market -6.1pp
P 12.7
F 14.9
V 13.5
2.3pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
57
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 4
 12.2%Fangorn 18.4%market -6.1pp
P 12.1
F 12.2
V 15.7
3.6pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
58
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 4
 15.5%Fangorn 22.0%market -6.5pp
P 13.9
F 15.5
V 14.2
1.6pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
59
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 6
 11.6%Fangorn 19.2%market -7.6pp
P 11.3
F 11.6
V 12.2
1.0pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
60
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 1
 0.0%Fangorn 8.0%market -8.0pp
P 3.5
F 0.0
V 6.8
6.8pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
61
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
 1.8%Fangorn 11.0%market -9.1pp
P 8.8
F 1.8
V 11.8
10.0pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
62
Marcell Ozuna PIT
IN
PIT vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 2
 11.6%Fangorn 21.1%market -9.5pp
P 12.1
F 11.6
V 13.3
1.7pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
63
Kyle Schwarber PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
 14.9%Fangorn 27.0%market -12.1pp
P 14.0
F 14.9
V 15.0
1.0pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
64
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 1
 15.5%Fangorn 29.8%market -14.3pp
P 14.0
F 15.5
V 20.1
6.1pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2415roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.