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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-06-03 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-06-03
138 matched props 56 unmatched
Newer: 2026-06-04 Older: 2026-06-02

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 138
Grouped Pitchers 22
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 56
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12 2026-06-11 2026-06-10 2026-06-09 2026-06-08

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-06-03 | Raw sportsbook rows: 138 | Grouped pitcher entries: 22 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-06-03/strikeout_edges_2026-06-03.json
Paul Skenes headshot

Paul Skenes
PIT vs HOU | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 5.73
Strongest Gap Under +19.43%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -150 / U +122
Over gap -24.48% / Under gap +19.43%
Under +19.43%
DraftKings
7.5
O +114 / U -145
Over gap -22.51% / Under gap +16.60%
Under +16.60%
Model O 35.5% | U 64.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 76.4
Cristopher Sánchez headshot

Cristopher Sánchez
PHI vs SD | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.98
Strongest Gap Under +16.40%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -152 / U +124
Over gap -21.36% / Under gap +16.40%
Under +16.40%
BetMGM
7.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -20.37% / Under gap +12.75%
Under +12.75%
DraftKings
7.5
O +120 / U -153
Over gap -18.20% / Under gap +12.28%
Under +12.28%
Model O 39.0% | U 61.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.0
Gavin Williams headshot

Gavin Williams
CLE vs NYY | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 5.58
Strongest Gap Under +15.09%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -125 / U -106
Over gap -22.11% / Under gap +15.09%
Under +15.09%
FanDuel
6.5
O -125 / U -106
Over gap -22.11% / Under gap +15.09%
Under +15.09%
DraftKings
6.5
O -117 / U -108
Over gap -20.47% / Under gap +14.63%
Under +14.63%
FanDuel
8.5
O +290 / U --
Over gap -11.37% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +154 / U --
Over gap -16.92% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -20.36% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -700 / U --
Over gap -25.55% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -290 / U --
Over gap -27.37% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 33.5% | U 66.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.9
Taj Bradley headshot

Taj Bradley
MIN vs CWS | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.26
Strongest Gap Under +13.89%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -158 / U +128
Over gap -18.99% / Under gap +13.89%
Under +13.89%
FanDuel
5.5
O -166 / U +128
Over gap -20.16% / Under gap +13.89%
Under +13.89%
DraftKings
5.5
O -159 / U +124
Over gap -19.14% / Under gap +13.11%
Under +13.11%
BetMGM
5.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -19.29% / Under gap +12.30%
Under +12.30%
FanDuel
8.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap -6.68% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +235 / U --
Over gap -11.06% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +118 / U --
Over gap -16.82% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1450 / U --
Over gap -20.67% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -420 / U --
Over gap -23.28% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 42.2% | U 57.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.0
Max Meyer headshot

Max Meyer
MIA vs WSH | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.55
Strongest Gap Under +10.30%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -17.41% / Under gap +10.30%
Under +10.30%
DraftKings
5.5
O +112 / U -143
Over gap -15.80% / Under gap +9.78%
Under +9.78%
FanDuel
5.5
O +116 / U -154
Over gap -14.93% / Under gap +8.00%
Under +8.00%
FanDuel
5.5
O +116 / U -154
Over gap -14.93% / Under gap +8.00%
Under +8.00%
FanDuel
7.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap -7.29% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap -11.55% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -16.56% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -580 / U --
Over gap -21.86% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -220 / U --
Over gap -22.32% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 31.4% | U 68.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.5
Walker Buehler headshot

Walker Buehler
SD vs PHI | 5 books
Strong
Adj K 3.41
Strongest Gap Under +9.79%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +130 / U -174
Over gap -16.77% / Under gap +9.79%
Under +9.79%
FanDuel
6.5
O +580 / U --
Over gap -7.06% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap -11.41% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -550 / U --
Over gap -20.99% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -188 / U --
Over gap -21.78% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 26.7% | U 73.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 27.0
MacKenzie Gore headshot

MacKenzie Gore
TEX vs STL | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.80
Strongest Gap Over +8.93%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +8.93% / Under gap --
Over +8.93%
FanDuel
6.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap +7.08% / Under gap --
Over +7.08%
DraftKings
5.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap +3.85% / Under gap -9.83%
Over +3.85%
FanDuel
5.5
O +116 / U -154
Over gap +3.85% / Under gap -10.78%
Over +3.85%
FanDuel
5.5
O +116 / U -154
Over gap +3.85% / Under gap -10.78%
Over +3.85%
BetMGM
4.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap +3.28% / Under gap -10.27%
Over +3.28%
FanDuel
4.5
O -205 / U --
Over gap -2.39% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -500 / U --
Over gap -4.74% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -5.76% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 25.1% | U 74.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.4
Andre Pallante headshot

Andre Pallante
STL vs TEX | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.59
Strongest Gap Under +7.95%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -150 / U +122
Over gap -13.00% / Under gap +7.95%
Under +7.95%
FanDuel
3.5
O -150 / U +122
Over gap -13.00% / Under gap +7.95%
Under +7.95%
DraftKings
3.5
O -152 / U +119
Over gap -13.32% / Under gap +7.34%
Under +7.34%
BetMGM
3.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -10.45% / Under gap +3.00%
Under +3.00%
FanDuel
6.5
O +700 / U --
Over gap -3.29% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap -4.95% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +158 / U --
Over gap -8.92% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -440 / U --
Over gap -14.78% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 47.0% | U 53.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 26.5
Jeffrey Springs headshot

Jeffrey Springs
ATH vs CHC | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.18
Strongest Gap Under +7.46%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -110 / U -110
Over gap -12.22% / Under gap +7.46%
Under +7.46%
BetMGM
4.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -13.33% / Under gap +6.35%
Under +6.35%
DraftKings
4.5
O -110 / U -116
Over gap -12.22% / Under gap +6.14%
Under +6.14%
Model O 40.2% | U 59.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.0
Michael Lorenzen headshot

Michael Lorenzen
COL vs LAA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.18
Strongest Gap Under +7.01%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -108 / U -112
Over gap -11.76% / Under gap +7.01%
Under +7.01%
DraftKings
4.5
O -106 / U -120
Over gap -11.30% / Under gap +5.29%
Under +5.29%
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -8.62% / Under gap +1.51%
Under +1.51%
Model O 40.2% | U 59.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.8
Spencer Arrighetti headshot

Spencer Arrighetti
HOU vs PIT | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 5.32
Strongest Gap Under +5.63%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -115 / U -105
Over gap -10.34% / Under gap +5.63%
Under +5.63%
DraftKings
5.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -10.34% / Under gap +4.24%
Under +4.24%
Model O 43.1% | U 56.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.5
Chris Bassitt headshot

Chris Bassitt
BAL vs BOS | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 3.82
Strongest Gap Under +5.49%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +116 / U -154
Over gap -12.42% / Under gap +5.49%
Under +5.49%
FanDuel
4.5
O +116 / U -154
Over gap -12.42% / Under gap +5.49%
Under +5.49%
DraftKings
4.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -10.76% / Under gap +4.88%
Under +4.88%
FanDuel
6.5
O +550 / U --
Over gap -3.98% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap -8.95% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap -16.36% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -225 / U --
Over gap -17.93% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 33.9% | U 66.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.4
Nick Martinez headshot

Nick Martinez
TB vs DET | 8 books
Play
Adj K 4.07
Strongest Gap Under +4.48%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +105 / U -134
Over gap -10.52% / Under gap +4.48%
Under +4.48%
FanDuel
4.5
O +116 / U -142
Over gap -8.04% / Under gap +3.06%
Under +3.06%
FanDuel
4.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap -8.91% / Under gap +3.06%
Under +3.06%
BetMGM
4.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -7.19% / Under gap +0.20%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap -4.83% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +225 / U --
Over gap -6.68% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap -12.83% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -225 / U --
Over gap -13.51% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 38.3% | U 61.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.4
Stephen Kolek headshot

Stephen Kolek
KC vs CIN | 8 books
Play
Adj K 4.14
Strongest Gap Under +4.01%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -10.03% / Under gap +4.01%
Under +4.01%
BetMGM
4.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -10.53% / Under gap +3.08%
Under +3.08%
FanDuel
4.5
O +106 / U -140
Over gap -9.07% / Under gap +2.20%
Under +2.20%
FanDuel
4.5
O +106 / U -140
Over gap -9.07% / Under gap +2.20%
Under +2.20%
FanDuel
6.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap -4.05% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +225 / U --
Over gap -5.64% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -670 / U --
Over gap -12.24% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -230 / U --
Over gap -12.79% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 39.5% | U 60.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.4
Freddy Peralta headshot

Freddy Peralta
NYM vs SEA | 9 books
Play
Adj K 5.83
Strongest Gap Under +3.98%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -10.97% / Under gap +3.98%
Under +3.98%
FanDuel
8.5
O +580 / U --
Over gap +1.91% / Under gap --
Over +1.91%
DraftKings
5.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -5.95% / Under gap -0.07%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -136 / U +102
Over gap -7.06% / Under gap -0.07%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -136 / U +102
Over gap -7.06% / Under gap -0.07%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap -0.90% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +148 / U --
Over gap -3.42% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -11.54% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -12.04% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 50.6% | U 49.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.2
Zac Gallen headshot

Zac Gallen
AZ vs LAD | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.49
Strongest Gap Over +3.06%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +136 / U -168
Over gap +3.06% / Under gap -8.12%
Over +3.06%
DraftKings
4.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap +0.38% / Under gap -6.37%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -2.19% / Under gap -5.43%
No Play
Model O 45.4% | U 54.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.0
George Kirby headshot

George Kirby
SEA vs NYM | 10 books
Lean
Adj K 5.55
Strongest Gap Under +2.23%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -9.01% / Under gap +2.23%
Under +2.23%
FanDuel
8.5
O +700 / U --
Over gap +1.50% / Under gap --
Over +1.50%
FanDuel
5.5
O -110 / U -110
Over gap -5.83% / Under gap +1.07%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -110 / U -110
Over gap -5.83% / Under gap +1.07%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O -114 / U -111
Over gap -6.72% / Under gap +0.84%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +370 / U --
Over gap +0.82% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +188 / U --
Over gap -1.68% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -9.25% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -700 / U --
Over gap -11.41% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -270 / U --
Over gap -11.42% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 46.6% | U 53.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.6
Patrick Corbin headshot

Patrick Corbin
TOR vs ATL | 5 books
Lean
Adj K 4.01
Strongest Gap Over +1.92%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +370 / U --
Over gap +1.92% / Under gap --
Over +1.92%
FanDuel
6.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +1.62% / Under gap --
Over +1.62%
FanDuel
4.5
O +168 / U --
Over gap -0.10% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -158 / U +118
Over gap -6.56% / Under gap -0.55%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -440 / U --
Over gap -8.45% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 23.2% | U 76.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 24.4
Logan Webb headshot

Logan Webb
SF vs MIL | 8 books
No Play
Adj K 5.38
Strongest Gap No Play +1.27%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap +1.27% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +210 / U --
Over gap -1.57% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +119 / U -151
Over gap -1.61% / Under gap -4.21%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +108 / U -144
Over gap -4.03% / Under gap -3.07%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +108 / U -144
Over gap -4.03% / Under gap -3.07%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -10.39% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -240 / U --
Over gap -11.39% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap -12.42% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 20.1% | U 79.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.5
Erick Fedde headshot

Erick Fedde
CWS vs MIN | 7 books
No Play
Adj K 3.58
Strongest Gap No Play +1.10%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +250 / U --
Over gap +1.10% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +1.00% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +112 / U -148
Over gap -0.36% / Under gap -6.49%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +112 / U -148
Over gap -0.36% / Under gap -6.49%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -0.81% / Under gap -5.14%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -0.81% / Under gap -6.81%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -245 / U --
Over gap -4.47% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 29.7% | U 70.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.0
Colin Rea headshot

Colin Rea
CHC vs ATH | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.56
Strongest Gap No Play +1.02%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -7.95% / Under gap +1.02%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -102 / U -120
Over gap -3.90% / Under gap -1.15%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap -1.48% / Under gap -4.58%
No Play
Model O 46.6% | U 53.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.0
Grant Holmes headshot

Grant Holmes
ATL vs TOR | 9 books
No Play
Adj K 4.90
Strongest Gap No Play +0.40%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap +0.40% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +174 / U --
Over gap +0.26% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +580 / U --
Over gap +0.25% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -112 / U -108
Over gap -0.76% / Under gap -3.99%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap -2.06% / Under gap -3.99%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -5.38% / Under gap -2.07%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap -2.48% / Under gap -3.53%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -270 / U --
Over gap -4.59% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -850 / U --
Over gap -6.45% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 24.2% | U 75.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.7

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.