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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-06-04 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-06-04
78 matched props 23 unmatched
Newer: 2026-06-05 Older: 2026-06-03

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 78
Grouped Pitchers 12
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 23
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12 2026-06-11 2026-06-10 2026-06-09 2026-06-08

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-06-04 | Raw sportsbook rows: 78 | Grouped pitcher entries: 12 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-06-04/strikeout_edges_2026-06-04.json
Shota Imanaga headshot

Shota Imanaga
CHC vs ATH | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.47
Strongest Gap Under +11.55%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +106 / U -130
Over gap -16.61% / Under gap +11.55%
Under +11.55%
DraftKings
6.5
O +104 / U -133
Over gap -17.09% / Under gap +10.99%
Under +10.99%
BetMGM
5.5
O -165 / U +125
Over gap -16.88% / Under gap +10.18%
Under +10.18%
Model O 31.9% | U 68.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.5
Lucas Giolito headshot

Lucas Giolito
SD vs PHI | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 4.31
Strongest Gap Over +7.29%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +390 / U --
Over gap +7.29% / Under gap --
Over +7.29%
FanDuel
4.5
O +168 / U --
Over gap +5.09% / Under gap --
Over +5.09%
FanDuel
3.5
O -132 / U +100
Over gap +2.81% / Under gap -9.71%
Over +2.81%
FanDuel
3.5
O -132 / U +100
Over gap +2.81% / Under gap -9.71%
Over +2.81%
DraftKings
3.5
O -143 / U +112
Over gap +0.86% / Under gap -6.88%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -1.83% / Under gap -5.16%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -3.12% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 27.7% | U 72.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.2
Chris Sale headshot

Chris Sale
ATL vs TOR | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 6.54
Strongest Gap Under +7.28%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O +111 / U -141
Over gap -13.18% / Under gap +7.28%
Under +7.28%
FanDuel
7.5
O +118 / U -144
Over gap -11.66% / Under gap +6.77%
Under +6.77%
FanDuel
7.5
O +118 / U -144
Over gap -11.66% / Under gap +6.77%
Under +6.77%
BetMGM
7.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -11.24% / Under gap +4.25%
Under +4.25%
FanDuel
8.5
O +225 / U --
Over gap -6.80% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -13.18% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -182 / U --
Over gap -18.04% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -18.43% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -20.02% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 34.2% | U 65.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 75.0
Zack Wheeler headshot

Zack Wheeler
PHI vs SD | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 6.93
Strongest Gap Over +6.08%
Best Line 8.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
8.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap +6.08% / Under gap --
Over +6.08%
FanDuel
7.5
O +188 / U --
Over gap +4.38% / Under gap --
Over +4.38%
FanDuel
6.5
O +102 / U -124
Over gap +2.02% / Under gap -6.88%
Over +2.02%
DraftKings
6.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap +2.02% / Under gap -8.04%
Over +2.02%
FanDuel
6.5
O +100 / U -124
Over gap +1.52% / Under gap -6.88%
Over +1.52%
BetMGM
6.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -1.97% / Under gap -5.01%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -240 / U --
Over gap -5.99% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -8.08% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -580 / U --
Over gap -8.34% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 28.3% | U 71.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 78.0
J.t. Ginn headshot

J.t. Ginn
ATH vs CHC | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.63
Strongest Gap Over +5.01%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +134 / U -164
Over gap +5.01% / Under gap -9.87%
Over +5.01%
DraftKings
3.5
O -166 / U +129
Over gap +2.20% / Under gap -8.28%
Over +2.20%
BetMGM
4.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap +1.24% / Under gap -8.53%
No Play
Model O 47.8% | U 52.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.3
Brayan Bello headshot

Brayan Bello
BOS vs BAL | 8 books
Play
Adj K 4.33
Strongest Gap Over +4.52%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +700 / U --
Over gap +4.52% / Under gap --
Over +4.52%
FanDuel
5.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap +4.19% / Under gap --
Over +4.19%
FanDuel
4.5
O +146 / U --
Over gap +2.09% / Under gap --
Over +2.09%
FanDuel
3.5
O -144 / U +118
Over gap +1.01% / Under gap -5.90%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -144 / U +118
Over gap +1.01% / Under gap -5.90%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -162 / U +127
Over gap -1.80% / Under gap -4.08%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -2.71% / Under gap -4.28%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -490 / U --
Over gap -5.93% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.0% | U 83.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.0
Slade Cecconi headshot

Slade Cecconi
CLE vs NYY | 8 books
Play
Adj K 4.09
Strongest Gap Under +3.94%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -11.39% / Under gap +3.94%
Under +3.94%
FanDuel
4.5
O +110 / U -146
Over gap -9.01% / Under gap +2.04%
Under +2.04%
FanDuel
4.5
O +110 / U -146
Over gap -9.01% / Under gap +2.04%
Under +2.04%
DraftKings
4.5
O +117 / U -149
Over gap -7.47% / Under gap +1.55%
Under +1.55%
FanDuel
6.5
O +490 / U --
Over gap -2.69% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +235 / U --
Over gap -5.46% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -700 / U --
Over gap -13.39% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -230 / U --
Over gap -13.64% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 38.6% | U 61.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.0
Carlos Rodón headshot

Carlos Rodón
NYY vs CLE | 3 books
Play
Adj K 5.87
Strongest Gap Over +3.74%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +111 / U -142
Over gap +3.74% / Under gap -9.81%
Over +3.74%
FanDuel
5.5
O +106 / U -130
Over gap +2.59% / Under gap -7.65%
Over +2.59%
BetMGM
5.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap +1.13% / Under gap -8.58%
No Play
Model O 51.1% | U 48.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.9
Trevor Rogers headshot

Trevor Rogers
BAL vs BOS | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.61
Strongest Gap Over +2.91%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap +2.91% / Under gap --
Over +2.91%
FanDuel
5.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap +1.04% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -0.20% / Under gap -7.42%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +108 / U -144
Over gap -0.66% / Under gap -6.44%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +108 / U -144
Over gap -0.66% / Under gap -6.44%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +104 / U -133
Over gap -1.60% / Under gap -4.50%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -250 / U --
Over gap -7.11% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -750 / U --
Over gap -8.02% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 20.4% | U 79.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.8
Adrian Houser headshot

Adrian Houser
SF vs MIL | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 3.67
Strongest Gap Under +1.73%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -129 / U +101
Over gap -7.81% / Under gap +1.73%
Under +1.73%
FanDuel
3.5
O -130 / U -102
Over gap -8.00% / Under gap +0.98%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -130 / U -102
Over gap -8.00% / Under gap +0.98%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -6.03% / Under gap -0.90%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap -2.87% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +360 / U --
Over gap -3.38% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +178 / U --
Over gap -4.73% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap -9.27% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 48.5% | U 51.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 29.5
Seth Lugo headshot

Seth Lugo
KC vs MIN | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 4.92
Strongest Gap Over +1.65%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +640 / U --
Over gap +1.65% / Under gap --
Over +1.65%
FanDuel
6.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap +0.66% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -141 / U +110
Over gap -6.13% / Under gap +0.00%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +164 / U --
Over gap -0.81% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -140 / U +106
Over gap -5.95% / Under gap -0.92%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -140 / U +106
Over gap -5.95% / Under gap -0.92%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -2.17% / Under gap -4.76%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap -9.14% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -10.14% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 15.2% | U 84.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.5
Ryne Nelson headshot

Ryne Nelson
AZ vs LAD | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.28
Strongest Gap No Play -1.60%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +130 / U -160
Over gap -1.60% / Under gap -3.42%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -168 / U +131
Over gap -3.46% / Under gap -2.52%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -3.57% / Under gap -3.42%
No Play
Model O 41.9% | U 58.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 27.0

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.