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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-06-06 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-06-06
141 matched props 54 unmatched
Newer: 2026-06-07 Older: 2026-06-05

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 141
Grouped Pitchers 19
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 54
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12 2026-06-11 2026-06-10 2026-06-09 2026-06-08

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-06-06 | Raw sportsbook rows: 141 | Grouped pitcher entries: 19 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-06-06/strikeout_edges_2026-06-06.json
Jacob Misiorowski headshot

Jacob Misiorowski
MIL vs COL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.17
Strongest Gap Under +23.90%
Best Line 7.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
7.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -31.19% / Under gap +23.90%
Under +23.90%
FanDuel
8.5
O +108 / U -132
Over gap -28.05% / Under gap +23.07%
Under +23.07%
DraftKings
8.5
O +107 / U -137
Over gap -28.28% / Under gap +22.16%
Under +22.16%
Model O 29.6% | U 70.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 80.2
Matthew Liberatore headshot

Matthew Liberatore
STL vs CIN | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 3.96
Strongest Gap Under +16.04%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -134 / U +110
Over gap -20.92% / Under gap +16.04%
Under +16.04%
FanDuel
4.5
O -134 / U +110
Over gap -20.92% / Under gap +16.04%
Under +16.04%
DraftKings
4.5
O -135 / U +106
Over gap -21.11% / Under gap +15.12%
Under +15.12%
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -21.11% / Under gap +13.66%
Under +13.66%
FanDuel
7.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap -10.69% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +270 / U --
Over gap -14.18% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +142 / U --
Over gap -18.85% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -19.97% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -360 / U --
Over gap -24.45% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 36.3% | U 63.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.3
Yoshinobu Yamamoto headshot

Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD vs LAA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.24
Strongest Gap Under +12.86%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -152 / U +124
Over gap -17.82% / Under gap +12.86%
Under +12.86%
DraftKings
7.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -14.99% / Under gap +8.91%
Under +8.91%
BetMGM
7.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -16.05% / Under gap +8.76%
Under +8.76%
Model O 42.5% | U 57.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 78.6
Landen Roupp headshot

Landen Roupp
SF vs CHC | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.24
Strongest Gap Under +12.07%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -152 / U +114
Over gap -19.12% / Under gap +12.07%
Under +12.07%
FanDuel
4.5
O -152 / U +114
Over gap -19.12% / Under gap +12.07%
Under +12.07%
DraftKings
4.5
O -139 / U +109
Over gap -16.96% / Under gap +10.95%
Under +10.95%
BetMGM
5.5
O +135 / U -185
Over gap -15.91% / Under gap +8.45%
Under +8.45%
FanDuel
7.5
O +640 / U --
Over gap -4.57% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap -7.85% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +154 / U --
Over gap -12.73% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -17.30% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -360 / U --
Over gap -19.69% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 41.2% | U 58.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.4
Keider Montero headshot

Keider Montero
DET vs SEA | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.64
Strongest Gap Under +10.38%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -190 / U +140
Over gap -17.57% / Under gap +10.38%
Under +10.38%
DraftKings
4.5
O +124 / U -159
Over gap -13.92% / Under gap +7.89%
Under +7.89%
FanDuel
4.5
O +134 / U -164
Over gap -12.02% / Under gap +7.16%
Under +7.16%
FanDuel
4.5
O +130 / U -164
Over gap -12.76% / Under gap +7.16%
Under +7.16%
FanDuel
6.5
O +580 / U --
Over gap -5.04% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap -8.37% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -186 / U --
Over gap -17.08% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -550 / U --
Over gap -17.10% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 47.9% | U 52.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 25.2
Bryce Miller headshot

Bryce Miller
SEA vs DET | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.40
Strongest Gap Under +8.91%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -143 / U +112
Over gap -14.93% / Under gap +8.91%
Under +8.91%
FanDuel
4.5
O -144 / U +108
Over gap -15.10% / Under gap +8.00%
Under +8.00%
FanDuel
4.5
O -144 / U +108
Over gap -15.10% / Under gap +8.00%
Under +8.00%
BetMGM
4.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -11.64% / Under gap +4.86%
Under +4.86%
FanDuel
7.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap -3.44% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap -7.14% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +144 / U --
Over gap -11.91% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1450 / U --
Over gap -15.62% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -18.86% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 43.9% | U 56.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.3
Griffin Canning headshot

Griffin Canning
SD vs NYM | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.19
Strongest Gap Under +7.28%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -14.21% / Under gap +7.28%
Under +7.28%
DraftKings
4.5
O -114 / U -114
Over gap -12.93% / Under gap +6.39%
Under +6.39%
FanDuel
4.5
O -105 / U -115
Over gap -10.88% / Under gap +6.17%
Under +6.17%
Model O 40.3% | U 59.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 26.5
Ranger Suarez headshot

Ranger Suarez
BOS vs NYY | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.75
Strongest Gap Under +6.45%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -172 / U +128
Over gap -13.55% / Under gap +6.45%
Under +6.45%
FanDuel
4.5
O -172 / U +128
Over gap -13.55% / Under gap +6.45%
Under +6.45%
DraftKings
4.5
O -163 / U +127
Over gap -12.29% / Under gap +6.26%
Under +6.26%
BetMGM
4.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -11.85% / Under gap +4.86%
Under +4.86%
FanDuel
7.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap -0.24% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +290 / U --
Over gap -3.40% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +138 / U --
Over gap -7.57% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1800 / U --
Over gap -13.12% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -440 / U --
Over gap -15.15% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 49.7% | U 50.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.1
Kyle Bradish headshot

Kyle Bradish
BAL vs TOR | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.55
Strongest Gap Over +5.15%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +490 / U --
Over gap +5.15% / Under gap --
Over +5.15%
FanDuel
6.5
O +250 / U --
Over gap +4.47% / Under gap --
Over +4.47%
DraftKings
5.5
O +123 / U -157
Over gap +1.71% / Under gap -7.64%
Over +1.71%
FanDuel
5.5
O +118 / U -158
Over gap +0.68% / Under gap -7.79%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +118 / U -158
Over gap +0.68% / Under gap -7.79%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -2.23% / Under gap -4.88%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -198 / U --
Over gap -4.89% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -500 / U --
Over gap -7.24% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2200 / U --
Over gap -7.68% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.1% | U 77.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.8
Spencer Strider headshot

Spencer Strider
ATL vs PIT | 9 books
Play
Adj K 5.88
Strongest Gap Under +4.96%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O +106 / U -135
Over gap -10.95% / Under gap +4.96%
Under +4.96%
FanDuel
6.5
O +114 / U -140
Over gap -9.14% / Under gap +4.08%
Under +4.08%
FanDuel
6.5
O +114 / U -140
Over gap -9.14% / Under gap +4.08%
Under +4.08%
BetMGM
6.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -10.03% / Under gap +2.41%
Under +2.41%
FanDuel
8.5
O +410 / U --
Over gap -2.51% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap -5.22% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1450 / U --
Over gap -14.21% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -205 / U --
Over gap -15.94% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -450 / U --
Over gap -16.00% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 37.6% | U 62.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 74.4
Zack Littell headshot

Zack Littell
WSH vs AZ | 7 books
Play
Adj K 3.59
Strongest Gap Over +4.84%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap +4.84% / Under gap --
Over +4.84%
FanDuel
5.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap +4.45% / Under gap --
Over +4.45%
DraftKings
3.5
O +129 / U -166
Over gap +3.33% / Under gap -9.41%
Over +3.33%
FanDuel
3.5
O +128 / U -172
Over gap +3.14% / Under gap -10.24%
Over +3.14%
FanDuel
3.5
O +128 / U -172
Over gap +3.14% / Under gap -10.24%
Over +3.14%
BetMGM
2.5
O -200 / U +145
Over gap +0.03% / Under gap -7.52%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -225 / U --
Over gap -2.53% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 29.8% | U 70.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 29.3
Nick Lodolo headshot

Nick Lodolo
CIN vs STL | 9 books
Play
Adj K 5.16
Strongest Gap Over +4.18%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +640 / U --
Over gap +4.18% / Under gap --
Over +4.18%
FanDuel
6.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap +3.88% / Under gap --
Over +3.88%
FanDuel
5.5
O +158 / U --
Over gap +1.98% / Under gap --
Over +1.98%
DraftKings
4.5
O -141 / U +111
Over gap -2.49% / Under gap -3.41%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -152 / U +114
Over gap -4.30% / Under gap -2.75%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -152 / U +114
Over gap -4.30% / Under gap -2.75%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -145 / U +105
Over gap -3.16% / Under gap -4.80%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -380 / U --
Over gap -7.48% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -8.13% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.7% | U 82.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.6
Jack Kochanowicz headshot

Jack Kochanowicz
LAA vs LAD | 3 books
Play
Adj K 3.57
Strongest Gap Over +4.11%
Best Line 2.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
2.5
O -165 / U +125
Over gap +4.11% / Under gap -10.81%
Over +4.11%
FanDuel
3.5
O +128 / U -158
Over gap +2.75% / Under gap -7.85%
Over +2.75%
DraftKings
3.5
O +128 / U -164
Over gap +2.75% / Under gap -8.73%
Over +2.75%
Model O 66.4% | U 33.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 13.6
Eduardo Rodriguez headshot

Eduardo Rodriguez
AZ vs WSH | 8 books
Play
Adj K 4.55
Strongest Gap Over +3.57%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +3.57% / Under gap --
Over +3.57%
FanDuel
5.5
O +250 / U --
Over gap +2.80% / Under gap --
Over +2.80%
FanDuel
4.5
O +116 / U -142
Over gap +0.13% / Under gap -5.11%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap -0.74% / Under gap -5.11%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -5.95% / Under gap -0.98%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap -2.59% / Under gap -3.33%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -225 / U --
Over gap -5.80% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -670 / U --
Over gap -7.42% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 19.7% | U 80.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.0
Jack Leiter headshot

Jack Leiter
TEX vs CLE | 8 books
Play
Adj K 4.97
Strongest Gap Under +3.31%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +112 / U -143
Over gap -9.33% / Under gap +3.31%
Under +3.31%
FanDuel
5.5
O +122 / U -150
Over gap -7.21% / Under gap +2.16%
Under +2.16%
FanDuel
5.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -8.03% / Under gap +2.16%
Under +2.16%
FanDuel
7.5
O +490 / U --
Over gap -1.27% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +235 / U --
Over gap -4.72% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2200 / U --
Over gap -12.02% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -500 / U --
Over gap -14.03% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -215 / U --
Over gap -15.10% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 37.8% | U 62.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.0
Ben Brown headshot

Ben Brown
CHC vs SF | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 5.12
Strongest Gap Under +2.20%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -168 / U +136
Over gap -7.26% / Under gap +2.20%
Under +2.20%
FanDuel
4.5
O -168 / U +136
Over gap -7.26% / Under gap +2.20%
Under +2.20%
FanDuel
7.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +1.13% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap -4.92% / Under gap -1.07%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +250 / U --
Over gap -1.42% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -5.35% / Under gap -1.94%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +120 / U --
Over gap -5.32% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -10.36% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -500 / U --
Over gap -12.13% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 55.4% | U 44.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.0
Tanner Bibee headshot

Tanner Bibee
CLE vs TEX | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 5.00
Strongest Gap Under +2.14%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -168 / U +126
Over gap -9.08% / Under gap +2.14%
Under +2.14%
FanDuel
4.5
O -168 / U +126
Over gap -9.08% / Under gap +2.14%
Under +2.14%
DraftKings
4.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -7.33% / Under gap +1.34%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +580 / U --
Over gap +1.28% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap -0.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +136 / U --
Over gap -4.07% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -10.23% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -440 / U --
Over gap -11.79% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 53.6% | U 46.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.2
Joe Ryan headshot

Joe Ryan
MIN vs KC | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 5.98
Strongest Gap Under +1.89%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -8.88% / Under gap +1.89%
Under +1.89%
DraftKings
6.5
O +120 / U -153
Over gap -6.49% / Under gap +0.57%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +126 / U -154
Over gap -5.29% / Under gap +0.41%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +122 / U -154
Over gap -6.09% / Under gap +0.41%
No Play
FanDuel
8.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap -0.09% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +225 / U --
Over gap -3.52% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -13.09% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -198 / U --
Over gap -13.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -450 / U --
Over gap -14.78% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 52.7% | U 47.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.9
Will Warren headshot

Will Warren
NYY vs BOS | 9 books
No Play
Adj K 5.12
Strongest Gap No Play +0.52%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +115 / U -146
Over gap -6.38% / Under gap +0.52%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -7.49% / Under gap -0.13%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap -0.28% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +124 / U -152
Over gap -4.51% / Under gap -0.45%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +124 / U -152
Over gap -4.51% / Under gap -0.45%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap -3.15% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -10.36% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -210 / U --
Over gap -12.31% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -550 / U --
Over gap -13.42% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 40.1% | U 59.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.0

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.